Influence of the Kuroshio interannual variability on the summertime precipitation over the East China Sea and adjacent area

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(8), (2019): 2185-2205. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0538.1.Much attention has been paid to the climatic impacts of changes in the Kuroshio Extension, instead of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS). This study, however, reveals the prominent influences of the lateral shift of the Kuroshio at interannual time scale in late spring [April–June (AMJ)] on the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in summer around the ECS, based on high-resolution satellite observations and ERA-Interim. A persistent offshore displacement of the Kuroshio during AMJ can result in cold SST anomalies in the northern ECS and the Japan/East Sea until late summer, which correspondingly causes anomalous cooling of the lower troposphere. Consequently, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS acts as a key driver to robustly enhance the precipitation from the Yangtze River delta to Kyushu in early summer (May–August) and over the central ECS in late summer (July–September). In view of the moisture budget analysis, two different physical processes modulated by the lateral shift of the Kuroshio are identified to account for the distinct responses of precipitation in early and late summer, respectively. First, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS induced by the Kuroshio offshore shift is likely conducive to the earlier arrival of the mei-yu–baiu front at 30°–32°N and its subsequent slower northward movement, which may prolong the local rainy season, leading to the increased rain belt in early summer. Second, the persistent cold SST anomalies in late summer strengthen the near-surface baroclinicity and the associated strong atmospheric fronts embedded in the extratropical cyclones over the central ECS, which in turn enhances the local rainfall.We appreciate three anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments. This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0601804), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Projects (91858102, 41490643, 41490640, 41506009, U1606402) and the OUC–WHOI joint research program (21366).2019-10-0

Resolving and parameterising the ocean mesoscale in earth system models

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Guiding principles for the development and application of solid-phase phosphorus adsorbents for freshwater ecosystems

While a diverse array of phosphorus (P)-adsorbent materials is currently available for application to freshwater aquatic systems, selection of the most appropriate P-adsorbents remains problematic. In particular, there has to be a close correspondence between attributes of the P-adsorbent, its field performance, and the management goals for treatment. These management goals may vary from a rapid reduction in dissolved P to address seasonal enrichments from internal loading, targeting external fluxes due to anthropogenic sources, or long term inactivation of internal P inventories contained within bottom sediments. It also remains a challenge to develop new methods and materials that are ecologically benign and cost-effective. We draw on evidence in the literature and the authors’ personal experiences in the field, to summarise the attributes of a range of P-adsorbent materials. We offer 'guiding principles' to support practical use of existing materials and outline key development needs for new materials

Observed contribution of Barents-Kara sea ice loss to warm Arctic-cold Eurasia anomalies by submonthly processes in winter

The warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern of surface air temperature anomalies is a prominent feature of the Eurasian climate variations during boreal winter. The interannual WACE anomalies are accompanied by sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara (BK) seas, however, the causality between them remains controversial because of large internal atmospheric variability over subarctic Eurasia in winter. Here we disentangle the contribution of BK sea ice loss to the WACE anomalies based on a statistical decomposition approach. An anticyclonic circulation anomaly over subarctic Eurasia that forces the WACE anomalies is found to reach its peak 3 d prior to BK sea ice loss. After excluding this prior atmospheric forcing signature, the East Asian cooling matures about 15 d later as a result of the weakened moisture transport associated with the enhanced BK downstream ridge and East Asian trough due to BK sea ice loss. The results suggest that BK sea ice loss contributes ∼65% and ∼81% of the WACE-related East Asian cooling and Arctic warming at interannual timescale, respectively, whereas the WACE-related cooling over central Eurasia primarily results from internal atmospheric variability. Such submonthly lagged East Asia cooling caused by BK sea ice loss could be helpful in predicting winter extreme cold events over East Asia

Weakening Atlantic Niño-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming

Sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, which is referred to as an Atlantic Niño (Niña) at its warm (cold) phase and peaks in boreal summer, dominates the interannual variability in the equatorial Atlantic. By strengthening of the Walker circulation, an Atlantic Niño favors a Pacific La Niña, which matures in boreal winter, providing a precursory memory for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. How this Atlantic impact responds to greenhouse warming is unclear. Here, we show that greenhouse warming leads to a weakened influence from the Atlantic Niño/Niña on the Pacific ENSO. In response to anomalous equatorial Atlantic heating, ascending over the equatorial Atlantic is weaker due to an increased tropospheric stability in the mean climate, resulting in a weaker impact on the Pacific Ocean. Thus, as greenhouse warming continues, Pacific ENSO is projected to be less affected by the Atlantic Niño/Niña and more challenging to predict

Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate

Abstract Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models’ ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs

Greenhouse warming intensifies north tropical Atlantic climate variability.

Variability of North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), characterized by a near-uniform warming at its positive phase, is a consequential mode of climate variability. Modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation, NTA warm anomalies tend to induce La Niña events, droughts in Northeast Brazil, increased frequency of extreme hurricanes, and phytoplankton blooms in the Guinea Dome. Future changes of NTA variability could have profound socioeconomic impacts yet remain unknown. Here, we reveal a robust intensification of NTA variability under greenhouse warming. This intensification mainly arises from strengthening of ENSO-forced Pacific-North American pattern and tropospheric temperature anomalies, as a consequence of an eastward shift of ENSO-induced equatorial Pacific convection and of increased ENSO variability, which enhances ENSO influence by reinforcing the associated wind and moist convection anomalies. The intensification of NTA SST variability suggests increased occurrences of extreme NTA events, with far-reaching ramifications