Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Western External Rif Chain using Machine Learning Methods

Landslides are a major natural hazard in the mountainous Rif region of Northern Morocco. This study aims to create and compare landslide susceptibility maps in the Western External Rif Chain context using three advanced machine learning models: Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). The landslide database, created by satellite imagery and field research, contains an inventory of 3528 cases of slope movements. A database of 12 conditioning factors was prepared, including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, lithology, rainfall, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), distance to streams, distance to faults, distance to roads, and land cover. The database was randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 70/30. The predictive capabilities of the models were evaluated using overall accuracy (Acc), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), kappa index, and F score measures. The results indicated that RF was the most suitable model for this study area, demonstrating the highest predictive capability (AUC= 0.86) compared to the other models. This aligns with previous landslide studies, which found that ensemble methods like RF and XGBoost offer superior accuracy. The most important causal factors of landslides in the study area were identified as slope, rainfall, and elevation, while the influence rate of TWI and SPI was the minimum. By analyzing a larger inventory of landslides on a more extensive scale, this study aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of landslide predictions in a west Mediterranean morphoclimatic context that encompasses a wide variety of lithologies. The resulting maps can serve as a crucial resource for land use planning and disaster management planning. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-12-018 Full Text: PD

New insights on the Alboran Sea basin extension and continental collision from magnetic anomalies related to magmatism (western Mediterranean)

The comments of two anonymous reviewers have improved the quality of this manuscript. This study was supported by projects CGL2016-80687-R AEI/FEDER , P18-RT-3275 , B-RNM-301-UGR18 and RNM148 ( Junta de Andalucía/FEDER ). Y.M.M was supported by NASA under award number 80GSFC17M0002 . V.T.S. was supported by the FPU PhD grant ( 16/04038 ). ICM-CSIC author acknowledges the Severo Ochoa funding from the Spanish government through the “ Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence ” accreditation ( CEX2019-000928-S ). University of Granada supported this study by funding the APC for publishing as an Open Access articile through an agreement with Elsevier.In the Alboran Sea there are a few well exposed Neogene and Quaternary volcanic zones, often geographic highs, that are generally associated with magnetic anomalies. In this paper, we present a characterization of these magnetic anomalies based on a recent and accurate magnetic data compilation for the Abloran Sea area. The anomalies reveal the distribution of magmatism and shed light into the discussion about the origin and evolution of the westernmost Mediterranean. One of the most relevant magnetic anomalies is the Nador dipole, which extends from the Gourougou volcano to the Chafarinas Islands, and is related to an E-W crustal scale intrusion. However, the main NE-SW elongated continuous dipoles of the central Alboran Sea are not related to any surface structure, but they are parallel to the Alboran Ridge, which is the main volcanic high in the Alboran Sea, and are located to the north of it. These anomalies extend discontinuously eastward along the NW-SE dipoles located along the Yusuf fault zone. The results of our 2D magnetic forward modeling suggest that the causative bodies of these main magnetic dipoles are deep igneous bodies. According to the tectonic evolution of the region, and the high magnetic susceptibility values obtained, these igneous bodies probably are made of a basic igneous rocks. Their emplacement may represent the westward tip of the rift axis of the AlKaPeCa Domain, which is related to the Oligocene-Miocene NW-SE extension, and associated with the southern slab retreat stage and oceanic spreading of the Algerian basin. Afterwards, these bodies were displaced toward the west, together with the Alboran Domain, and affected by the STEP fault located at its southern limit. Since the Late Miocene, the north Alboran Ridge elongated intrusions acted as a backstop that conditioned the folding and uplift of the Alboran Ridge in a tectonic indentation setting. In this setting, the STEP fault is deformed and the eastern part of the bodies were segmented along the Yusuf transtensional fault system. Simultaneously, the E-W crustal body related to the Nador magnetic dipole was emplaced, possibly evidencing a slab tearing process. The deep seated basic igneous bodies constitute main crustal heterogeneities that reveal and drive the Alboran Sea tectonic inversion.FPU 16/04038Spanish government CEX2019-000928-SNational Aeronautics and Space Administration 80GSFC17M0002Universidad de GranadaJunta de Andalucí

Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016

The three aftershock sequences that occurred in Al Hoceima, Morocco, in May 1994 (Mw 6.0), February 2004 (Mw 6.4) and January 2016 (Mw 6.3) were stochastically modeled to investigate their temporal and energetic behavior. A form of the restricted trigger model known as the restricted epidemic type aftershock sequence (RETAS) was used for the temporal analysis of the selected series. The best-determined fit models for each sequence differ based on the Akaike information criteria. The revealed discrepancies suggest that, although the activated fault systems are close (within 10 to 20 km), their stress regimes change and shift across each series. In addition, a stochastic model was presented to study the strain release following a specific strong earthquake. This model was constructed using a compound Poisson process and depicted the progression of the strain release during the aftershock sequence. The proposed model was then applied to the data. After the RETAS model was used to evaluate the behavior of the aftershock decay rate, the best-fit model was obtained and integrated into the strain-release stochastic analysis. By detecting the potential disparities between the observed data and model, the applied stochastic model of strain release allows for a more comprehensive examination. Furthermore, comparing the observed and expected cumulative energy release numbers revealed some variations at the start of all three sequences. This demonstrates that significant aftershock clusters occur more frequently shortly after the mainshock at the start of the sequence rather than if they are assumed to occur randomly

The Role of Faults as Barriers in Confined Seismic Sequences: 2021 Seismicity in the Granada Basin (Betic Cordillera)

Fault barriers are key structures for studying seismic hazard in regions of intense brittle deformation. The interaction between fault sets affects their seismogenic behavior, if some of them act as barriers. The Granada Basin, in the Betic Cordillera, is a region affected by shallow brittle deformation, as it was the scenario for the recent Granada 2021 seismic sequence. This seismicity presented a swarm behavior at the beginning of the sequence, followed by mainshock-aftershock features. Geological and gravity data presented here reveal that the basement is affected by two sets of NW-SE and NE-SW normal faults and intensely deformed by vertical NW-SE joints. Improved relocation of the Granada 2021 seismicity reveals a confined chimney-shape seismicity caused by the activity of a 2 km long NW-SE normal fault segment. The confinement of the sequence is associated with the NE-SW fault set acting as a barrier that restricts the rupture area, limiting the maximum magnitude, and favoring the recurrence of events with smaller magnitude. The chimney-shape of the seismic sequence suggests that the deformation is propagated vertically to the surface, facilitated by preexisting fractures. The shallow extensional deformation during the uplift of the central Betic Cordillera drove the activity of the local structures obliquely to the regional extensional trends, as evidenced by the seismic sequence. This multidisciplinary study improves the knowledge on the origin of the Granada Basin and underlies the important role of preexisting fractures on fault segmentation and seismic propagation, decreasing the seismic potential of this area

Oceanographic and climatic consequences of the tectonic evolution of the southern scotia sea basins, Antarctica

The Scotia Sea is a complex geological area located in the Southern Ocean which evolution is closely linked to the opening of the Drake Passage. Structural highs of continental nature derived from the former continental bridge between South America and the Antarctic Peninsula surround the abyssal plains of the Scotia Sea, restricting small isolated sedimentary basins along its southern margin. Morpho-structural and seismo-stratigraphic analyses of multichannel seismic reflection profiles, and additional geophysical data available in the region, have been conducted, decoding regional and global implications of the basins' evolution. The main aim of this work is to describe the stratigraphic evolution of the southern Scotia Sea basins, from their opening in the back-arc tectonic context of the Scotia Sea, to the last oceanographic changes which have carried on global climatic implications. The evolution of the south Scotia Sea occurred through two major tectonic stages registered in the sedimentary record of the region: 1) the end of the subduction in the northwest part of the Weddell Sea during the early Miocene, which shortened the back-arc subduction trench generating a major change in the regional tectonic field that determined the evolution of the southern basins towards two different types of passive margins: magma-poor and magma-rich; and 2) the full development of the southern Scotia Sea basins during the middle Miocene, that led to the opening of deep oceanic gateways along the South Scotia Ridge. Interplay among tectonics, oceanography and climate is proposed to control the regional sedimentary stacking pattern, with coeval changes globally identified

ADMAP-2: The next-generation Antarctic magnetic anomaly map

The Antarctic Digital Magnetic Anomaly Project compiled the first international magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic region south of 60\ubaS (ADMAP-1) some six years after its 1995 launch (Golynsky et al., 2001; Golynsky et al., 2007; von Frese et al., 2007). This magnetic anomaly compilation provided new insights into the structure and evolution of Antarctica, including its Proterozoic-Archaean cratons, Proterozoic-Palaeozoic orogens, Palaeozoic-Cenozoic magmatic arc systems, continental rift systems and rifted margins, large igneous provinces and the surrounding oceanic gateways. The international working group produced the ADMAP-1 database from more than 1.5 million line-kilometres of terrestrial, airborne, marine and satellite magnetic observations collected during the IGY 1957-58 through 1999. Since the publication of the first magnetic anomaly map, the international geomagnetic community has acquired more than 1.9 million line-km of new airborne and marine data. This implies that the amount of magnetic anomaly data over the Antarctic continent has more than doubled. These new data provide important constraints on the geology of the enigmatic Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains and Prince Charles Mountains, Wilkes Land, Dronning Maud Land, and other largely unexplored Antarctic areas (Ferraccioli et al., 2011, Aitken et al., 2014 \u327 Mieth & Jokat, 2014, Golynsky et al., 2013). The processing of the recently acquired data involved quality assessments by careful statistical analysis of the crossover errors. All magnetic data used in the ADMAP-2 compilation were delivered as profiles, although several of them were in raw form. Some datasets were decimated or upward continued to altitudes of 4 km or higher with the higher frequency geological signals smoothed out. The line data used for the ADMAP-1 compilation were reprocessed for obvious errors and residual corrugations. The new near-surface magnetic data were corrected for the international geomagnetic reference field and diurnal effects, edited for high-frequency errors, and levelled to minimize line-correlated noise. The magnetic anomaly data collected mainly in the 21-st century clearly cannot be simply stitched together with the previous surveys. Thus, mutual levelling adjustments were required to accommodate overlaps in these surveys. The final compilation merged all the available aeromagnetic and marine grids to create the new composite grid of the Antarctic with minimal mismatch along the boundaries between the datasets. Regional coverage gaps in the composite grid will be filled with anomaly estimates constrained by both the near-surface data and satellite magnetic observations taken mainly from the CHAMP and Swarm missions. Magnetic data compilations are providing tantalizing new views into regional-scale subglacial geology and crustal architecture in interior of East and West Antarctica. The ADMAP-2 map provides a new geophysical foundation to better understand the geological structure and tectonic history of Antarctica and surrounding marine areas. In particular, it will provide improved constraints on the lithospheric transition of Antarctica to its oceanic basins, and thus enable improved interpretation of the geodynamic evolution of the Antarctic lithosphere that was a key component in the assembly and break-up of the Rodinia and Gondwana supercontinents. This work was supported by the Korea Polar Research Institute

Evolution of near-surface ramp-flat-ramp normal faults and implication during intramontane basin formation in the eastern Betic Cordillera (the Huercal-Overa Basin, SE Spain)

International audienceThe nucleation, propagation, and associated folding of ramp-flat-ramp normal faults were analyzed from field examples developed in a brittle/ductile multilayer sequence of the Huércal-Overa Basin (SE Spain). Gently dipping sandy silt layers, which display a low cohesive strength (C0 = 7 kPa, μ = 34°), favor the development of extensional detachments. A tectonic origin instead of a possible gravitational origin is supported by the perpendicularity between the paleoslope direction of the fluvial-deltaic environment inferred from imbricated pebbles, and the senses of movement deduced from fault slicken-lines. The link between high-angle normal faults (HANFs) --formed at different levels in the layered sequence-- with horizontal fault segments comes to develop ramp-flat-ramp normal faults with associated roll-over in the hanging wall. Observed extensional duplexes are formed by parallel detachments connected through synthetic Riedel faults. These Riedel faults would produce the back-rotation of the individual blocks (horses), i.e., extensional folding of the originally subhorizontal layers. There is no correlation between the analyzed ramp-flat-ramp normal faults, accommodating south-southeastward extension during Serravallian-lower Tortonian, and either the regional Alpujarride/Nevado-Filabride west-directed extensional shear zone or the top-to-the-north detachments within Alpujarride units, which are clearly sealed by Serravallian-lower Tortonian sediments. Therefore, the studied normal faults are restricted to the brittle/ductile multilayer fluvio/deltaic sequence and accommodate moderate late extension instead of belonging to a large crustal extensional system connected with a regional detachment at depth. Therefore, the basin formed in a moderate crustal thickness context where small and medium-scale extensional systems were subordinate structures. These natural examples support the development of low-angle normal faults at very shallow crustal levels in multilayer sequences with suitable rheological conditions

Fault growth as a key control on the sedimentary architecture and depositional environments of extensional basins: the case study of the Tablate area (Granada Basin, Spain)

This paper documents the control exerted by normal fault growth on the sedimentary architecture of a small sector of the Granada Basin, Spain. Since Middle Miocene, the spatio-temporal evolution of the depositional environments can be associated with multiple stages of normal fault growth. Starting from Serravallian, the progressive development of two orthogonal sets of normal faults, respectively ~E-W and ~N-S striking, drove the basin development from patchy distributed, small continental to lagoonal depressions to open marine conditions. The latter conditions took place during Late Tortonian. Since Late Turonian (late Miocene), as a consequence of a regional uplift well documented in literature, accumulation of continental deposits on top of the aforementioned marine sediments occurred throughout the Quaternary. These continental deposits sealed most of the ~E-W and ~N-S striking normal faults, which activity therefore predated their deposition. Documentation of both vertical and lateral distributions of the various Miocene sedimentary units allowed us to assess the main fault parameters, length and displacement, for Serravallian and Tortonian times. Lengths up to 1 km and throws up to 30 m characterised the normal faults active during the Serravallian, whereas lengths up to 4 km and throws up to 130 m the more mature normal faults active during the Tortonian. The results of this integrated stratigraphic and structural study are summarised in a 4D conceptual model of extensional basin evolution

Nucleation, linkage and active propagation of a segmented Quaternary normal-dextral fault: the Loma del Viento fault (Campo de Dalias, Eastern Betic Cordillera, SE Spain)

International audienceActive faults from the Campo de Dalías (SE Betic Cordillera) allow us to constrain the deformation styles involved in the development of segmented oblique-slip faults. This sector constitutes the widest outcrop of Plio-Quaternary sediments in the northern boundary of the Alboran Sea. It has emerged since the Late Pliocene, and therefore provides recent deformation markers that are not disturbed by erosive processes. The faults started to grow during the Pleistocene, reactivating previous hybrid joints, with a normal-dextral slip. We present a detailed map of the largest fault in the area, the Loma del Viento fault, comprising six onshore segments. Based on field work and aerial photography, the distributions of the contiguous joints have been mapped, and the joints reactivated as faults are identified. Some of these fault segments are hard-linked, and fault slip enhances toward the linkage sectors between them with associated sedimentary depocenters. An electrical tomography profile reveals the wedge geometry of a unit of Pleistocene conglomerates and red silts that were coevally deposited during the fault movement. Long-term slip rate in the central part of the fault is estimated at 0.07 ± 0.03 mm/y. In addition, a seismic crisis nucleated close to the Loma del Viento fault during November 2010 was recorded. Moment tensor analysis of the two mainshocks (Mw 3.5 and 4.2) provides a focal solution indicating a N120°E striking right-lateral strike-slip fault. The corrugated morphology of the Loma del Viento fault may have influenced its seismic behavior. Some of the fault segments are oblique to the general motion of the fault. These oblique segments would provide higher resistance against the general fault motion and could lock the fault, leading to accumulate elastic energy

Crustal resistivity structure of the southwestern transect of the Rif Cordillera (Morocco)

International audienceA NE-SW magnetotelluric 110 km-long profile including 18 sites was acquired across the western Rif Cordillera along the Eurasian-African plate boundary, allowing to constrain its poorly known deep structure. It extends from the Internal Zones, close to the Alboran coast, crossing the External Zones and up to the Gharb foreland basin. The periods recorded range from 0.001 s to 1000 s. The combination of magnetotelluric data with available geological data provides new insight regarding the relationship between deep and shallow crustal structures of the Rif Cordillera. Analyses of structural dimensionality suggest a preferential NW-SE direction, and a 2D joint inversion was performed. A 3D inversion extending the 2D model along the strike confirmed the reliability of this approach. The magnetotelluric model shows a heterogeneous upper crust in agreement with the geological structures observed at surface. The Internal Zones correspond to resistive (metamorphic rocks) and conductive (peridotites) bodies, while the External Zones and the foreland basin are characterized by large conductive bodies of variable thickness. A crustal detachment level separating shallow geological units from a probable variscan basement was inferred. At depth, the most relevant feature consists of large resistive bodies with a shallow irregular top, located below the frontal part of the Rif. The outcrops of exotic metapelitic, granitic and gneissic blocks in the frontal part of the Cordillera suggest that these large resistive bodies may correspond to a gneissic or granitic basement surrounded by metapelitic rocks. Late contractive thrust and diapiric processes were responsible for their uplift and shallow emplacement. The Rif constitutes an active southwestward vergent orogenic wedge, oblique to the present-day NW-SE convergent Eurasian-African plate boundary