Honey Yield Forecast Using Radial Basis Functions

Honey yields are difficult to predict and have been usually associated with weather conditions. Although some specific meteorological variables have been associated with honey yields, the reported relationships concern a specific geographical region of the globe for a given time frame and cannot be used for different regions, where climate may behave differently. In this study, Radial Basis Function (RBF) interpolation models were used to explore the relationships between weather variables and honey yields. RBF interpolation models can produce excellent interpolants, even for poorly distributed data points, capable of mimicking well unknown responses providing reliable surrogates that can be used either for prediction or to extract relationships between variables. The selection of the predictors is of the utmost importance and an automated forward-backward variable screening procedure was tailored for selecting variables with good predicting ability. Honey forecasts for Andalusia, the first Spanish autonomous community in honey production, were obtained using RBF models considering subsets of variables calculated by the variable screening procedure

Topological Analysis of Metabolic Networks Integrating Co-Segregating Transcriptomes and Metabolomes in Type 2 Diabetic Rat Congenic Series

Background: The genetic regulation of metabolic phenotypes (i.e., metabotypes) in type 2 diabetes mellitus is caused by complex organ-specific cellular mechanisms contributing to impaired insulin secretion and insulin resistance. Methods: We used systematic metabotyping by 1H NMR spectroscopy and genome-wide gene expression in white adipose tissue to map molecular phenotypes to genomic blocks associated with obesity and insulin secretion in a series of rat congenic strains derived from spontaneously diabetic Goto-Kakizaki (GK) and normoglycemic Brown-Norway (BN) rats. We implemented a network biology strategy approach to visualise shortest paths between metabolites and genes significantly associated with each genomic block. Results: Despite strong genomic similarities (95-99%) among congenics, each strain exhibited specific patterns of gene expression and metabotypes, reflecting metabolic consequences of series of linked genetic polymorphisms in the congenic intervals. We subsequently used the congenic panel to map quantitative trait loci underlying specific metabotypes (mQTL) and genome-wide expression traits (eQTL). Variation in key metabolites like glucose, succinate, lactate or 3-hydroxybutyrate, and second messenger precursors like inositol was associated with several independent genomic intervals, indicating functional redundancy in these regions. To navigate through the complexity of these association networks we mapped candidate genes and metabolites onto metabolic pathways and implemented a shortest path strategy to highlight potential mechanistic links between metabolites and transcripts at colocalized mQTLs and eQTLs. Minimizing shortest path length drove prioritization of biological validations by gene silencing. Conclusions: These results underline the importance of network-based integration of multilevel systems genetics datasets to improve understanding of the genetic architecture of metabotype and transcriptomic regulations and to characterize novel functional roles for genes determining tissue-specific metabolism

Parental smoking and child poverty in the UK: an analysis of national survey data

BACKGROUND: In 2011/12 approximately 2.3 million children, 17% of children in the UK, were estimated to be in relative poverty. Cigarette smoking is expensive and places an additional burden on household budgets, and is strongly associated with socioeconomic deprivation. The aim of this study was to provide an illustrative first estimate of the extent to which parental smoking exacerbates child poverty in the UK. METHODS: Findings from the 2012 Households Below Average Income report and the 2012 Opinions and Lifestyle Survey were combined to estimate the number of children living in poor households containing smokers; the expenditure of typical smokers in these households on tobacco; and the numbers of children drawn into poverty if expenditure on smoking is subtracted from household income. RESULTS: 1.1 million children - almost half of all children in poverty - were estimated to be living in poverty with at least one parent who smokes; and a further 400,000 would be classed as being in poverty if parental tobacco expenditure were subtracted from household income. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking exacerbates poverty for a large proportion of children in the UK. Tobacco control interventions which effectively enable low income smokers to quit can play an important role in reducing the financial burden of child poverty

Characterization and Comparison of 2 Distinct Epidemic Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Clones of ST59 Lineage.

Sequence type (ST) 59 is an epidemic lineage of community-associated (CA) methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates. Taiwanese CA-MRSA isolates belong to ST59 and can be grouped into 2 distinct clones, a virulent Taiwan clone and a commensal Asian-Pacific clone. The Taiwan clone carries the Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes and the staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec (SCCmec) VT, and is frequently isolated from patients with severe disease. The Asian-Pacific clone is PVL-negative, carries SCCmec IV, and a frequent colonizer of healthy children. Isolates of both clones were characterized by their ability to adhere to respiratory A549 cells, cytotoxicity to human neutrophils, and nasal colonization of a murine and murine sepsis models. Genome variation was determined by polymerase chain reaction of selected virulence factors and by multi-strain whole genome microarray. Additionally, the expression of selected factors was compared between the 2 clones. The Taiwan clone showed a much higher cytotoxicity to the human neutrophils and caused more severe septic infections with a high mortality rate in the murine model. The clones were indistinguishable in their adhesion to A549 cells and persistence of murine nasal colonization. The microarray data revealed that the Taiwan clone had lost the ø3-prophage that integrates into the β-hemolysin gene and includes staphylokinase- and enterotoxin P-encoding genes, but had retained the genes for human immune evasion, scn and chps. Production of the virulence factors did not differ significantly in the 2 clonal groups, although more α-toxin was expressed in Taiwan clone isolates from pneumonia patients. In conclusion, the Taiwan CA-MRSA clone was distinguished by enhanced virulence in both humans and an animal infection model. The evolutionary acquisition of PVL, the higher expression of α-toxin, and possibly the loss of a large portion of the β-hemolysin-converting prophage likely contribute to its higher pathogenic potential than the Asian-Pacific clone

Manipulable Objects Facilitate Cross-Modal Integration in Peripersonal Space

Previous studies have shown that tool use often modifies one's peripersonal space – i.e. the space directly surrounding our body. Given our profound experience with manipulable objects (e.g. a toothbrush, a comb or a teapot) in the present study we hypothesized that the observation of pictures representing manipulable objects would result in a remapping of peripersonal space as well. Subjects were required to report the location of vibrotactile stimuli delivered to the right hand, while ignoring visual distractors superimposed on pictures representing everyday objects. Pictures could represent objects that were of high manipulability (e.g. a cell phone), medium manipulability (e.g. a soap dispenser) and low manipulability (e.g. a computer screen). In the first experiment, when subjects attended to the action associated with the objects, a strong cross-modal congruency effect (CCE) was observed for pictures representing medium and high manipulability objects, reflected in faster reaction times if the vibrotactile stimulus and the visual distractor were in the same location, whereas no CCE was observed for low manipulability objects. This finding was replicated in a second experiment in which subjects attended to the visual properties of the objects. These findings suggest that the observation of manipulable objects facilitates cross-modal integration in peripersonal space

Exposure to revised drinking guidelines and 'COM-B' determinants of behaviour change: descriptive analysis of a monthly cross-sectional survey in England

BACKGROUND: January 2016 saw the publication of proposed revisions to the UK's lower risk drinking guidelines but no sustained promotional activity. This paper aims to explore the impact of publishing guidelines without sustained promotional activity on reported guideline exposure and determinants of behaviour (capability, opportunity and motivation) proposed by the COM-B model. METHODS: Data were collected by a monthly repeat cross-sectional survey of adults (18+) resident in England over 15 months between November 2015 and January 2017 from a total of 16,779 drinkers, as part of the Alcohol Toolkit Study. Trends and associated 95% confidence intervals were described in the proportion of reported exposure to guidelines in the past month and measures of the capability, opportunity and motivation to consume alcohol within drinking guidelines. RESULTS: There was a rise in reported exposure to drinking guidelines in January 2016 (57.6-80.6%) which did not reoccur in January 2017. Following the increase in January 2016, reported exposure reduced slowly but remained significantly higher than in December 2015. In February 2016, there was an increase in measures of capability (31.1% reported tracking units of alcohol consumption and 87.8% considered it easier to drink safely) and opportunity (84.0% perceived their lifestyle as conducive to drinking within guidelines). This change was not maintained in subsequent months. Other measures showed marginal changes between January and February 2016 with no evidence of change in subsequent months. CONCLUSIONS: Following the publication of revised drinking guideline in January 2016, there was a transient increase in exposure to guidelines, and capability and opportunity to drink within the guidelines that diminished over time. The transience and size of the changes indicate that behaviour change is unlikely. Well-designed, theory-based promotional campaigns may be required for drinking guidelines to be an effective public health intervention

The specific role of relationship life events in the onset of depression during pregnancy and the postpartum

Background The precipitating role of life events in the onset of depression is well-established. The present study sought to examine whether life events hypothesised to be personally salient would be more strongly associated with depression than other life events. In a sample of women making the first transition to parenthood, we hypothesised that negative events related to the partner relationship would be particularly salient and thus more strongly predictive of depression than other events. Methods A community-based sample of 316 first-time mothers stratified by psychosocial risk completed interviews at 32 weeks gestation and 29 weeks postpartum to assess dated occurrence of life events and depression onsets from conception to 29 weeks postpartum. Complete data was available from 273 (86.4%). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine risk for onset of depression in the 6 months following a relationship event versus other events, after accounting for past history of depression and other potential confounders. Results 52 women (19.0%) experienced an onset of depression between conception and 6 months postpartum. Both relationship events (Hazard Ratio = 2.1, p = .001) and other life events (Hazard Ratio = 1.3, p = .020) were associated with increased risk for depression onset; however, relationship events showed a significantly greater risk for depression than did other life events (p = .044). Conclusions The results are consistent with the hypothesis that personally salient events are more predictive of depression onset than other events. Further, they indicate the clinical significance of events related to the partner relationship during pregnancy and the postpartum

Seasonal and annual fluxes of nutrients and organic matter from large rivers to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 35 (2012): 369-382, doi:10.1007/s12237-011-9386-6.River inputs of nutrients and organic matter impact the biogeochemistry of arctic estuaries and the Arctic Ocean as a whole, yet there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of fluvial fluxes at the pan-arctic scale. Samples from the six largest arctic rivers, with a combined watershed area of 11.3 x 106 km2, have revealed strong seasonal variations in constituent concentrations and fluxes within rivers as well as large differences among the rivers. Specifically, we investigate fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate, and silica. This is the first time that seasonal and annual constituent fluxes have been determined using consistent sampling and analytical methods at the pan arctic scale, and consequently provide the best available estimates for constituent flux from land to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. Given the large inputs of river water to the relatively small Arctic Ocean, and the dramatic impacts that climate change is having in the Arctic, it is particularly urgent that we establish the contemporary river fluxes so that we will be able to detect future changes and evaluate the impact of the changes on the biogeochemistry of the receiving coastal and ocean systems.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through grants OPP-0229302, OPP-0519840, OPP-0732522, and OPP-0732944. Additional support was provided by the U. S. Geological Survey (Yukon River) and the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (Mackenzie River)

Causal hierarchy within the thalamo-cortical network in spike and wave discharges

Background: Generalised spike wave (GSW) discharges are the electroencephalographic (EEG) hallmark of absence seizures, clinically characterised by a transitory interruption of ongoing activities and impaired consciousness, occurring during states of reduced awareness. Several theories have been proposed to explain the pathophysiology of GSW discharges and the role of thalamus and cortex as generators. In this work we extend the existing theories by hypothesizing a role for the precuneus, a brain region neglected in previous works on GSW generation but already known to be linked to consciousness and awareness. We analysed fMRI data using dynamic causal modelling (DCM) to investigate the effective connectivity between precuneus, thalamus and prefrontal cortex in patients with GSW discharges. Methodology and Principal Findings: We analysed fMRI data from seven patients affected by Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE) with frequent GSW discharges and significant GSW-correlated haemodynamic signal changes in the thalamus, the prefrontal cortex and the precuneus. Using DCM we assessed their effective connectivity, i.e. which region drives another region. Three dynamic causal models were constructed: GSW was modelled as autonomous input to the thalamus (model A), ventromedial prefrontal cortex (model B), and precuneus (model C). Bayesian model comparison revealed Model C (GSW as autonomous input to precuneus), to be the best in 5 patients while model A prevailed in two cases. At the group level model C dominated and at the population-level the p value of model C was ∼1. Conclusion: Our results provide strong evidence that activity in the precuneus gates GSW discharges in the thalamo-(fronto) cortical network. This study is the first demonstration of a causal link between haemodynamic changes in the precuneus - an index of awareness - and the occurrence of pathological discharges in epilepsy. © 2009 Vaudano et al