A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved

Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.

The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition

Torosaurus Is Not Triceratops: Ontogeny in Chasmosaurine Ceratopsids as a Case Study in Dinosaur Taxonomy

Background: In horned dinosaurs, taxonomy is complicated by the fact that the cranial ornament that distinguishes species changes with age. Based on this observation, it has been proposed that the genera Triceratops and Torosaurus are in fact synonymous, with specimens identified as Torosaurus representing the adult form of Triceratops. The hypothesis of synonymy makes three testable predictions: 1) the species in question should have similar geographic and stratigraphic distributions, 2) specimens assigned to Torosaurus should be more mature than those assigned to Triceratops, and 3) intermediates should exist that combine features of Triceratops and Torosaurus. The first condition appears to be met, but it remains unclear whether the other predictions are borne out by the fossil evidence. Methodology/Principal Findings: We assessed the relative maturity of Torosaurus and Triceratops specimens by coding skulls for characters that vary with maturity, and then using a clustering analysis to arrange them into a growth series. We found that a well-defined sequence of changes exists in horned dinosaurs: development of cranial ornament occurs in juveniles, followed by fusion of the skull roof in subadults, and finally, the epoccipitals, epijugals, and rostral fuse to the skull in adults. Using this scheme, we identified mature and immature individuals of both Torosaurus and Triceratops. Furthermore, we describe the ventral depressions on the frill of Triceratops, and show that they differ in shape and position from the parietal fenestrae of Torosaurus. Thus, we conclude that these structures are not intermediates between the soli

Ancient horizontal gene transfer and the last common ancestors

Background The genomic history of prokaryotic organismal lineages is marked by extensive horizontal gene transfer (HGT) between groups of organisms at all taxonomic levels. These HGT events have played an essential role in the origin and distribution of biological innovations. Analyses of ancient gene families show that HGT existed in the distant past, even at the time of the organismal last universal common ancestor (LUCA). Most gene transfers originated in lineages that have since gone extinct. Therefore, one cannot assume that the last common ancestors of each gene were all present in the same cell representing the cellular ancestor of all extant life. Results Organisms existing as part of a diverse ecosystem at the time of LUCA likely shared genetic material between lineages. If these other lineages persisted for some time, HGT with the descendants of LUCA could have continued into the bacterial and archaeal lineages. Phylogenetic analyses of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase protein families support the hypothesis that the molecular common ancestors of the most ancient gene families did not all coincide in space and time. This is most apparent in the evolutionary histories of seryl-tRNA synthetase and threonyl-tRNA synthetase protein families, each containing highly divergent “rare” forms, as well as the sparse phylogenetic distributions of pyrrolysyl-tRNA synthetase, and the bacterial heterodimeric form of glycyl-tRNA synthetase. These topologies and phyletic distributions are consistent with horizontal transfers from ancient, likely extinct branches of the tree of life. Conclusions Of all the organisms that may have existed at the time of LUCA, by definition only one lineage is survived by known progeny; however, this lineage retains a genomic record of heterogeneous genetic origins. The evolutionary histories of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRS) are especially informative in detecting this signal, as they perform primordial biological functions, have undergone several ancient HGT events, and contain many sites with low substitution rates allowing deep phylogenetic reconstruction. We conclude that some aaRS families contain groups that diverge before LUCA. We propose that these ancient gene variants be described by the term “hypnologs”, reflecting their ancient, reticulate origin from a time in life history that has been all but erased”.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant DEB 0830024)Exobiology Program (U.S.) (Grant NNX10AR85G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Postdoctoral Program

Social media for health promotion and weight management: A critical debate

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: In 2016 an estimated 1.9 billion adults world-wide were either overweight or obese. The health consequences of obesity are responsible for 2.8 million preventable deaths per year. The WHO now considers obesity as a global epidemic and recommends population-wide health promotion strategies to address this issue. Weight gain is caused by increased energy intake and physical inactivity, so treatment should focus on changes to behaviour regarding diet and physical activity. Discussion: The WHO has also recognised the importance of social resources as a valuable agent for behaviour change in health promotion. Social resources are translated at the community level as support provided by significant others such as family, partners and peers, in the form of information, material aid and encouragement. Social support has been shown to improve health and well-being, whereas social isolation has been shown to have a negative impact on health outcomes. Social support provided by peers has been shown to be a useful strategy to employ in weight management programmes. The documented increased use of ICT and social media has presented health promoters with a potentially useful medium to increase social support for weight management. Conclusion: While the use of social media for health promotion is an emerging field of investigation, preliminary research suggests that it increases participant engagement, and may provide a cost-effective tool to provide social support for individuals participating in weight management programmes. With stringent privacy protocols in place, social media may be a useful, cost-effective accompaniment to multifactorial weight management programmes. However more research is needed to identify how to make the best use of social media as health promotion tool

Cranial Ontogeny in Stegoceras validum (Dinosauria: Pachycephalosauria): A Quantitative Model of Pachycephalosaur Dome Growth and Variation

Historically, studies of pachycephalosaurs have recognized plesiomorphically flat-headed taxa and apomorphically domed taxa. More recently, it has been suggested that the expression of the frontoparietal dome is ontogenetic and derived from a flat-headed juvenile morphology. However, strong evidence to support this hypothesis has been lacking. Here we test this hypothesis in a large, stratigraphically constrained sample of specimens assigned to Stegoceras validum, the best known pachycephalosaur, using multiple independent lines of evidence including conserved morphology of ornamentation, landmark-based allometric analyses of frontoparietal shape, and cranial bone histology. New specimens show that the diagnostic ornamentation of the parietosquamosal bar is conserved throughout the size range of the sample, which links flat-headed specimens to domed S. validum. High-resolution CT scans of three frontoparietals reveal that vascularity decreases with size and document a pattern that is consistent with previously proposed histological changes during growth. Furthermore, aspects of dome shape and size are strongly correlated and indicative of ontogenetic growth. These results are complementary and strongly support the hypothesis that the sample represents a growth series of a single taxon. Cranial dome growth is positively allometric, proceeds from a flat-headed to a domed state, and confirms the synonymy of Ornatotholus browni as a juvenile Stegoceras. This dataset serves as the first detailed model of growth and variation in a pachycephalosaur. Flat-headed juveniles possess three characters (externally open cranial sutures, tuberculate dorsal surface texture, and open supratemporal fenestrae) that are reduced or eliminated during ontogeny. These characters also occur in putative flat-headed taxa, suggesting that they may also represent juveniles of domed taxa. However, open cranial sutures and supratemporal fenestrae are plesiomorphic within Ornithischia, and thus should be expected in the adult stage of a primitive pachycephalosaur. Additional lines of evidence will be needed to resolve the taxonomic validity of flat-headed pachycephalosaur taxa

Short-Term Environmental Enrichment Rescues Adult Neurogenesis and Memory Deficits in APPSw,Ind Transgenic Mice

Epidemiological studies indicate that intellectual activity prevents or delays the onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Similarly, cognitive stimulation using environmental enrichment (EE), which increases adult neurogenesis and functional integration of newborn neurons into neural circuits of the hippocampus, protects against memory decline in transgenic mouse models of AD, but the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. To study the therapeutic benefits of cognitive stimulation in AD we examined the effects of EE in hippocampal neurogenesis and memory in a transgenic mouse model of AD expressing the human mutant β-amyloid (Aβ) precursor protein (APPSw,Ind). By using molecular markers of new generated neurons (bromodeoxiuridine, NeuN and doublecortin), we found reduced neurogenesis and decreased dendritic length and projections of doublecortin-expressing cells of the dentate gyrus in young APPSw,Ind transgenic mice. Moreover, we detected a lower number of mature neurons (NeuN positive) in the granular cell layer and a reduced volume of the dentate gyrus that could be due to a sustained decrease in the incorporation of new generated neurons. We found that short-term EE for 7 weeks efficiently ameliorates early hippocampal-dependent spatial learning and memory deficits in APPSw,Ind transgenic mice. The cognitive benefits of enrichment in APPSw,Ind transgenic mice were associated with increased number, dendritic length and projections to the CA3 region of the most mature adult newborn neurons. By contrast, Aβ levels and the total number of neurons in the dentate gyrus were unchanged by EE in APPSw,Ind mice. These results suggest that promoting the survival and maturation of adult generated newborn neurons in the hippocampus may contribute to cognitive benefits in AD mouse models

The Molecular Epidemiology and Evolution of Murray Valley Encephalitis Virus: Recent Emergence of Distinct Sub-lineages of the Dominant Genotype 1

© 2015 Williams et al. Background: Recent increased activity of the mosquito-borne Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) in Australia has renewed concerns regarding its potential to spread and cause disease. Methodology/Principal Findings: To better understand the genetic relationships between earlier and more recent circulating strains, patterns of virus movement, as well as the molecular basis of MVEV evolution, complete pre-membrane (prM) and Envelope (Env) genes were sequenced from sixty-six MVEV strains from different regions of the Australasian region, isolated over a sixty year period (1951–2011). Phylogenetic analyses indicated that, of the four recognized genotypes, only G1 and G2 are contemporary. G1 viruses were dominant over the sampling period and found across the known geographic range of MVEV. Two distinct sub-lineages of G1 were observed (1A and 1B). Although G1B strains have been isolated from across mainland Australia, Australian G1A strains have not been detected outside northwest Australia. Similarly, G2 is comprised of only Western Australian isolates from mosquitoes, suggesting G1B and G2 viruses have geographic or ecological restrictions. No evidence of recombination was found and a single amino acid substitution in the Env protein (S332G) was found to be under positive selection, while several others were found to be under directional evolution. Evolutionary analyses indicated that extant genotypes of MVEV began to diverge from a common ancestor approximately 200 years ago. G2 was the first genotype to diverge, followed by G3 and G4, and finally G1, from which subtypes G1A and G1B diverged between 1964 and 1994. Conclusions/Significance: The results of this study provides new insights into the genetic diversity and evolution of MVEV. The demonstration of co-circulation of all contemporary genetic lineages of MVEV in northwestern Australia, supports the contention that this region is the enzootic focus for this virus

Man and the Last Great Wilderness: Human Impact on the Deep Sea

The deep sea, the largest ecosystem on Earth and one of the least studied, harbours high biodiversity and provides a wealth of resources. Although humans have used the oceans for millennia, technological developments now allow exploitation of fisheries resources, hydrocarbons and minerals below 2000 m depth. The remoteness of the deep seafloor has promoted the disposal of residues and litter. Ocean acidification and climate change now bring a new dimension of global effects. Thus the challenges facing the deep sea are large and accelerating, providing a new imperative for the science community, industry and national and international organizations to work together to develop successful exploitation management and conservation of the deep-sea ecosystem. This paper provides scientific expert judgement and a semi-quantitative analysis of past, present and future impacts of human-related activities on global deep-sea habitats within three categories: disposal, exploitation and climate change. The analysis is the result of a Census of Marine Life – SYNDEEP workshop (September 2008). A detailed review of known impacts and their effects is provided. The analysis shows how, in recent decades, the most significant anthropogenic activities that affect the deep sea have evolved from mainly disposal (past) to exploitation (present). We predict that from now and into the future, increases in atmospheric CO2 and facets and consequences of climate change will have the most impact on deep-sea habitats and their fauna. Synergies between different anthropogenic pressures and associated effects are discussed, indicating that most synergies are related to increased atmospheric CO2 and climate change effects. We identify deep-sea ecosystems we believe are at higher risk from human impacts in the near future: benthic communities on sedimentary upper slopes, cold-water corals, canyon benthic communities and seamount pelagic and benthic communities. We finalise this review with a short discussion on protection and management methods