Onchocerciasis in the Thyolo highlands of Malawi

Skin snips for 23,373 persons living in the Thyolo highlands showed infection with Onchocerca volvulus to be widely but unevenly distributed within the Thyolo highlands. Although 60% of adults in some areas were infected, the intensity of infection was light. Infection with O. volvulus is associated with blindness in the Thyolo highlands, though the number of excess blind due to onchocerciasis is probably less than 300. Persons infected were found to weigh significantly less and to have more symptomatic complaints than those not infected

Impact of Scottish smoke-free legislation on smoking quit attempts and prevalence

<p><b>Objectives:</b> In Scotland, legislation was implemented in March 2006 prohibiting smoking in all wholly or partially enclosed public spaces. We investigated the impact on attempts to quit smoking and smoking prevalence.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We performed time series models using Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) on monthly data on the gross ingredient cost of all nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) prescribed in Scotland in 2003–2009, and quarterly data on self-reported smoking prevalence between January 1999 and September 2010 from the Scottish Household Survey.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> NRT prescription costs were significantly higher than expected over the three months prior to implementation of the legislation. Prescription costs peaked at £1.3 million in March 2006; £292,005.9 (95% CI £260,402.3, £323,609, p<0.001) higher than the monthly norm. Following implementation of the legislation, costs fell exponentially by around 26% per month (95% CI 17%, 35%, p<0.001). Twelve months following implementation, the costs were not significantly different to monthly norms. Smoking prevalence fell by 8.0% overall, from 31.3% in January 1999 to 23.7% in July–September 2010. In the quarter prior to implementation of the legislation, smoking prevalence fell by 1.7% (95% CI 2.4%, 1.0%, p<0.001) more than expected from the underlying trend.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Quit attempts increased in the three months leading up to Scotland's smoke-free legislation, resulting in a fall in smoking prevalence. However, neither has been sustained suggesting the need for additional tobacco control measures and ongoing support.</p&gt

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Characterization of the Dispersal of Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata through the Selection of Spatially Explicit Models

Chagas disease is one of the most important neglected diseases in Latin America. Although insecticides have been successfully sprayed to control domiciliated vector populations, this strategy has proven to be ineffective in areas where non-domiciliated vectors immigrating from peridomestic or sylvatic ecotopes can (re-)infest houses. The development of strategies for the control of non-domiciliated vectors has thus been identified by the World Health Organization as a major challenge. Such development primarily requires a description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of infestation by these vectors, and a good understanding of their dispersal. We combined for the first time extensive spatio-temporal data sets describing house infestation dynamics by Triatoma dimidiata inside one village, and spatially explicit population dynamics models. The models fitted and predicted remarkably the observed infestation dynamics. They thus provided both key insights into the dispersal of T. dimidiata in this area, and a suitable mathematical background to evaluate the efficacy of various control strategies. Interestingly, the observed and modelled patterns of infestation suggest that interventions could focus on the periphery of the village, where there is the highest risk of transmission. Such spatial optimization may allow for reducing the cost of control, compensating for repeated interventions necessary for non-domiciliated vectors

Testing the Water–Energy Theory on American Palms (Arecaceae) Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Water and energy have emerged as the best contemporary environmental correlates of broad-scale species richness patterns. A corollary hypothesis of water–energy dynamics theory is that the influence of water decreases and the influence of energy increases with absolute latitude. We report the first use of geographically weighted regression for testing this hypothesis on a continuous species richness gradient that is entirely located within the tropics and subtropics. The dataset was divided into northern and southern hemispheric portions to test whether predictor shifts are more pronounced in the less oceanic northern hemisphere. American palms (Arecaceae, n = 547 spp.), whose species richness and distributions are known to respond strongly to water and energy, were used as a model group. The ability of water and energy to explain palm species richness was quantified locally at different spatial scales and regressed on latitude. Clear latitudinal trends in agreement with water–energy dynamics theory were found, but the results did not differ qualitatively between hemispheres. Strong inherent spatial autocorrelation in local modeling results and collinearity of water and energy variables were identified as important methodological challenges. We overcame these problems by using simultaneous autoregressive models and variation partitioning. Our results show that the ability of water and energy to explain species richness changes not only across large climatic gradients spanning tropical to temperate or arctic zones but also within megathermal climates, at least for strictly tropical taxa such as palms. This finding suggests that the predictor shifts are related to gradual latitudinal changes in ambient energy (related to solar flux input) rather than to abrupt transitions at specific latitudes, such as the occurrence of frost

An Investigation into the Poor Survival of an Endangered Coho Salmon Population

To investigate reasons for the decline of an endangered population of coho salmon (O. kisutch), 190 smolts were acoustically tagged during three consecutive years and their movements and survival were estimated using the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking project (POST) array. Median travel times of the Thompson River coho salmon smolts to the lower Fraser River sub-array were 16, 12 and 10 days during 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Few smolts were recorded on marine arrays. Freshwater survival rates of the tagged smolts during their downstream migration were 0.0–5.6% (0.0–9.0% s.e.) in 2004, 7.0% (6.2% s.e.) in 2005, and 50.9% (18.6% s.e.) in 2006. Overall smolt-to-adult return rates exhibited a similar pattern, which suggests that low freshwater survival rates of out-migrating smolts may be a primary reason for the poor conservation status of this endangered coho salmon population

Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives

Lévy patterns in seabirds are multifaceted describing both spatial and temporal patterning

BACKGROUND: The flight patterns of albatrosses and shearwaters have become a touchstone for much of Lévy flight research, spawning an extensive field of enquiry. There is now compelling evidence that the flight patterns of these seabirds would have been appreciated by Paul Lévy, the mathematician after whom Lévy flights are named. Here we show that Lévy patterns (here taken to mean spatial or temporal patterns characterized by distributions with power-law tails) are, in fact, multifaceted in shearwaters being evident in both spatial and temporal patterns of activity. RESULTS: We tested for Lévy patterns in the at-sea behaviours of two species of shearwater breeding in the North Atlantic Ocean (Calonectris borealis) and the Mediterranean sea (C. diomedea) during their incubating and chick-provisioning periods. We found that distributions of flight durations, on/in water durations and inter-dive time-intervals have power-law tails and so bear the hallmarks of Lévy patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of these statistical laws is remarkable given that bird behaviours are strongly shaped by an individual’s motivational state and by complex environmental interactions. Our observations could take Lévy patterns as models of animal behaviour to a new level by going beyond the characterisation of spatial movements to characterise how different behaviours are interwoven throughout daily animal life