Using imperfect data in predictive mapping of vector : a regional example of Ixodes ricinus distribution

Background: Knowledge of Ixodes ricinus tick distribution is critical for surveillance and risk management of transmissible tick-borne diseases such as Lyme borreliosis. However, as the ecology of I. ricinus is complex, and robust long-term geographically extensive distribution tick data are limited, mapping often relies on datasets collected for other purposes. We compared the modelled distributions derived from three datasets with information on I. ricinus distribution (quantitative I. ricinus count data from scientific surveys; I. ricinus presence-only data from public submissions; and a combined I. ricinus dataset from multiple sources) to assess which could be reliably used to inform Public Health strategy. The outputs also illustrate the strengths and limitations of these three types of data, which are commonly used in mapping tick distributions. Methods: Using the Integrated Nested Laplace algorithm we predicted I. ricinus abundance and presence–absence in Scotland and tested the robustness of the predictions, accounting for errors and uncertainty. Results: All models fitted the data well and the covariate predictors for I. ricinus distribution, i.e. deer presence, temperature, habitat, index of vegetation, were as expected. Differences in the spatial trend of I. ricinus distribution were evident between the three predictive maps. Uncertainties in the spatial models resulted from inherent characteristics of the datasets, particularly the number of data points, and coverage over the covariate range used in making the predictions. Conclusions: Quantitative I. ricinus data from scientific surveys are usually considered to be gold standard data and we recommend their use where high data coverage can be achieved. However in this study their value was limited by poor data coverage. Combined datasets with I. ricinus distribution data from multiple sources are valuable in addressing issues of low coverage and this dataset produced the most appropriate map for national scale decision-making in Scotland. When mapping vector distributions for public-health decision making, model uncertainties and limitations of extrapolation need to be considered; these are often not included in published vector distribution maps. Further development of tools to better assess uncertainties in the models and predictions are necessary to allow more informed interpretation of distribution maps

Global data for ecology and epidemiology: a novel algorithm for temporal Fourier processing MODIS data

Background. Remotely-sensed environmental data from earth-orbiting satellites are increasingly used to model the distribution and abundance of both plant and animal species, especially those of economic or conservation importance. Time series of data from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on-board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites offer the potential to capture environmental thermal and vegetation seasonality, through temporal Fourier analysis, more accurately than was previously possible using the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor data. MODIS data are composited over 8- or 16-day time intervals that pose unique problems for temporal Fourier analysis. Applying standard techniques to MODIS data can introduce errors of up to 30% in the estimation of the amplitudes and phases of the Fourier harmonics. Methodology/Principal Findings. We present a novel spline-based algorithm that overcomes the processing problems of composited MODIS data. The algorithm is tested on artificial data generated using randomly selected values of both amplitudes and phases, and provides an accurate estimate of the input variables under all conditions. The algorithm was then applied to produce layers that capture the seasonality in MODIS data for the period from 2001 to 2005. Conclusions/Significance. Global temporal Fourier processed images of 1 km MODIS data for Middle Infrared Reflectance, day- and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) are presented for ecological and epidemiological applications. The finer spatial and temporal resolution, combined with the greater geolocational and spectral accuracy of the MODIS instruments, compared with previous multi-temporal data sets, mean that these data may be used with greater confidence in species' distribution modelling

Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015-16: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. METHODS: We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region. FINDINGS: The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5-7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's r 0·52, 95% CI 0·34-0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's r 0·60, 95% CI 0·52-0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13-0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92-0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever

Background: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids. Human infection is characterized by severe symptoms that often result in death. While it is known that CCHFV transmission is limited to Africa, Asia and Europe, definitive global extents and risk patterns within these limits have not been well described. Methods: We used an exhaustive database of human CCHF occurrence records and a niche modeling framework to map the global distribution of risk for human CCHF occurrence. Results: A greater proportion of shrub or grass land cover was the most important contributor to our model, which predicts highest levels of risk around the Black Sea, Turkey, and some parts of central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows more focalized areas of risk throughout the Sahel and the Cape region. Conclusions: These new risk maps provide a valuable starting point for understanding the zoonotic niche of CCHF, its extent and the risk it poses to humans

Speech Communication

Contains reports on five research projects.C.J. Lebel FellowshipNational Institutes of Health (Grant 5 T32 NSO7040)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 R01 NS04332)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 R01 NS21183)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 P01 NS13126)National Institutes of Health (Grant 1 PO1-NS23734)National Science Foundation (Grant BNS 8418733)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0254)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0341)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0290)National Institutes of Health (Grant RO1-NS21183), subcontract with Boston UniversityNational Institutes of Health (Grant 1 PO1-NS23734), subcontract with the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmar

The Spatial Distribution of Crimean–Congo Haemorrhagic Fever and Its Potential Vectors in Europe and Beyond

Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is considered to be spreading across the globe, with many countries reporting new human CCHF cases in recent decades including Georgia, Türkiye, Albania, and, most recently, Spain. We update a human CCHF distribution map produced in 2015 to include global disease occurrence records to June 2022, and we include the recent records for Europe. The predicted distributions are based on long-established spatial modelling methods and are extended to include all European countries and the surrounding areas. The map produced shows the environmental suitability for the disease, taking into account the distribution of the most important known and potential tick vectors Hyalomma marginatum and Hyalomma lusitanicum, without which the disease cannot occur. This limits the disease’s predicted distribution to the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean seaboard, along with Türkiye and the Caucasus, with a more patchy suitability predicted for inland Greece, the southern Balkans, and extending north to north-west France and central Europe. These updated CCHF maps can be used to identify the areas with the highest probability of disease and to therefore target areas where mitigation measures should currently be focused

Predictive gravity models of livestock mobility in Mauritania: The effects of supply, demand and cultural factors.

Animal movements are typically driven by areas of supply and demand for animal products and by the seasonality of production and demand. As animals can potentially spread infectious diseases, disease prevention can benefit from a better understanding of the factors influencing movements patterns in space and time. In Mauritania, an important cultural event, called the Tabaski (Aïd el Kebir) strongly affects timing and structure of movements, and due to the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, the season can also influence movement patterns. In order to better characterize the animal movements patterns, a survey was carried out in 2014, and those data were analysed here using social network analysis (SNA) metrics and used to train predictive gravity models. More specifically, we aimed to contrast the movements structure by ruminant species, season (Tabaski vs. Non-Tabaski) and mode of transport (truck vs. foot). The networks differed according to the species, and to the season, with a changed proportion of truck vs. foot movements. The gravity models were able to predict the probability of a movement link between two locations with moderate to good accuracy (AUC ranging from 0.76 to 0.97), according to species, seasons, and mode of transport, but we failed to predict the traded volume of those trade links. The significant predictor variables of a movement link were the human and sheep population at the source and origin, and the distance separating the locations. Though some improvements would be needed to predict traded volumes and better account for the barriers to mobility, the results provide useful predictions to inform epidemiological models in space and time, and, upon external validation, could be useful to predict movements at a larger regional scale

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae

<div><p>Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two <i>Nepenthes</i> pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species <i>Nepenthes rafflesiana</i> by 2100; in contrast, the highland species <i>Nepenthes tentaculata</i> was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of <i>Nepenthes</i> are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.</p></div

FraRI:an algorithm to account for the discontinuity at 60 degrees N in MODIS temperature products

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites conducts continuous monitoring of the Earth's land surface and oceans. Recently, a sharp discontinuity (averaging 1.9 degrees C) has been noticed at 60 degrees N in both MODIS daytime and night-time land surface temperature (LST) products. This linear artefact arises because the CO2 high cloud test in the operational code for the generation of the MODIS cloud mask product is used only in the non-polar region (between 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S). The resulting discontinuity clearly has negative implications for any statistical applications of these temperature data. In this technical note we present a new algorithm, which minimizes this discontinuity. The method uses edge detection and elimination based on a mixture of Sobel and non-linear Laplacian filters (edge detection and quantification), cubic splines (edge modelling), and a controllable power function for image restoration. The implementation of this algorithm is demonstrated on an image of average minimum night-time LST between 2001 and 2008

Modeled habitat suitability on the island of Borneo for the lowland species <i>Nepenthes rafflesiana</i>, using Maxent (<i>n</i> = 139 localities).

<p>Habitat suitability is presented for the periods 1960–1990 (left panel), 2011–2040 (second panel), 2041–2070 (third panel), and 2071–2100 (right panel). Model results are overlaid onto an elevation map for illustration purposes. Probability of habitat suitability, ranging from 0 to 1, is plotted on a color scale, with orange representing values of 0.3–0.4, and dark blue representing values of 0.9–1. Areas with < 30% probability of habitat suitability are not illustrated. Inset boxes show higher resolution maps for areas of high occurrence. Scale bar refers to center row of images.</p