Pemodelan Sumber Gempa di Wilayah Sulawesi Utara sebagai Upaya Mitigasi Bencana Gempa Bumi

PEMODELAN SUMBER GEMPA DI WILAYAH SULAWESI UTARA SEBAGAI UPAYA MITIGASI BENCANA GEMPA BUMI 1) Guntur Pasau2) dan Adey Tanauma2); e-mail: [email protected])Penelitian IPTEK dan Seni dengan Biaya DIPA Unsrat Tahun 2011 2)Progran Studi Fisika FMIPA Universitas San Ratulangi Manado, 95115 ABSTRAK Pemodelan sumber gempa di wilayah Sulawesi Utara telah dilakukan. Pemodelan sumber gempa menggunakan teori probabilitas total merupakan salah satu upaya mitigasi dalam mengetahui besarnya percepatan suatu gerakan tanah yang diakibatkan oleh suatu gempa bumi. Analisis perhitungan percepatan tanah maksimum di batuan dasar meliputi probabilitas terlampaui 10% dalam 50 tahun. Hasil analisis pemodelan sumber gempa yang telah dilakukan didapatkan bahwa nilai percepatan tanah pada beberapa kota besar di Sulawesi Utara cukup tinggi. Nilai percepatan tanah maksimum yang tertinggi adalah Kota Gorontalo dengan nilai percepatan sekitar 0,5g kemudian disusul oleh Kota Bitung sebesar 0,4g, dan Kota Manado sebesar 0,25g. Kata Kunci: pemodelan, sumber gempa, probabilitas, percepatan, batuan dasar. EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODELING OF NORTH SULAWESI REGION AS AN EFFORT OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION ABSTRACT Earthquake source modeling of North Sulawesi region was carried out. The earthquake source modeling using the theory of total probability is one of the mitigation efforts in knowing the magnitude of the acceleration of the ground motion caused by an earthquake. Analysis of the calculation of the maximum ground acceleration at bedrock includes the probability of exceedance 10% in 50 years. The results of the earthquake source modeling analysis has been done found that the ground acceleration values ​​in some major cities in North Sulawesi is quite high. The maximum ground acceleration value of the highest is the of Gorontalo City with a value of about 0.5 g acceleration was followed by the Bitung City of 0.4 g, and the Manado City of 0.25 g

Evolution of the northern rockweed, <i>Fucus distichus</i>, in a regime of glacial cycling: implications for benthic algal phylogenetics

Northern hemisphere rockweeds (Fucus) are thought to have evolved in the North Pacific and then spread to the North Atlantic following the opening of the Bering Strait. They have dispersed and widely speciated in the North Atlantic and its tributary seas. Fucus distichus is likely near the ancestral member of this genus, and studies have shown that there are several species/subspecies in this complex (i.e. F. evanescens and F. gardneri). We used phylogenetic and haplotype analyses to test the phylogenetic relationships and biogeography of F. distichus. Our data and subsequent analyses demonstrate that, unlike previous studies that lacked samples from an extensive geographical area of the Arctic and Subarctic, there is a distinct Arctic haplotype that is the source of subspecies in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Fucus distichus occupies a low tide zone habitat, and in Arctic/Subarctic regions it is adapted to the severe stress of sea ice coverage and disturbance during many months per year. We hypothesize that the very large geographic area of Arctic and Subarctic rocky shores available to this species during interglacials, supported by large Arctic/Subarctic fringe areas as well as unglaciated refugia during glacial cycles, provided a robust population and gene pool (described by the Thermogeographic Model). This gene pool dilutes that of the more fragmented and area-limited Temperate/Boreal area populations when they are brought together during glacial cycles. We suggest that similar subspecies complexes for a variety of Arctic/Subarctic shore biota should be examined further in this context, rather than arbitrarily being split up into numerous species

Predicting death and readmission after intensive care discharge

Background: Despite initial recovery from critical illness, many patients deteriorate after discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU). We examined prospectively collected data in an attempt to identify patients at risk of readmission or death after intensive care discharge. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of clinical audit data from patients discharged alive from a mixed medical and surgical (non-cardiac) ICU. Results: Four hundred and seventy-five patients (11.2%) died in hospital after discharge from the ICU. Increasing age, time in hospital before intensive care admission, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and discharge Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS) score were independent risk factors for death after intensive care discharge. Three hundred and eighty-five patients (8.8%) were readmitted to intensive care during the same hospital admission. Increasing age, time in hospital before intensive care, APACHE II score, and discharge to a high dependency unit were independent risk factors for readmission. One hundred and forty-three patients (3.3%) were readmitted within 48 h of intensive care discharge. APACHE II scores and discharge to a high dependency or other ICU were independent risk factors for early readmission. The overall discriminant ability of our models was moderate with only marginal benefit over the APACHE II scores alone. Conclusions: We identified risk factors associated with death and readmission to intensive care. It was not possible to produce a definitive model based on these risk factors for predicting death or readmission in an individual patient.Not peer reviewedAuthor versio

Dynamic optimal taxation with human capital.

This paper revisits the dynamic optimal taxation results of Jones, Manuelli, and Rossi (1993, 1997). They use a growth model with human capital and find that optimal taxes on both capital income and labor income converge to zero in steady state. For one of the models under consideration, I show that the representative household's problem does not have an interior solution. This raises concerns since these corners are inconsistent with aggregate data. Interiority is restored if preferences are modified so that human capital augments the value of leisure time. With this change, the optimal tax problem is analyzed and, reassuringly, the Jones, Manuelli, and Rossi results are confirmed: neither capital income nor labor income should be taxed in steady state

Interaction of quasilocal harmonic modes and boson peak in glasses

The direct proportionality relation between the boson peak maximum in glasses, $\omega_b$, and the Ioffe-Regel crossover frequency for phonons, $\omega_d$, is established. For several investigated materials $\omega_b = (1.5\pm 0.1)\omega_d$. At the frequency $\omega_d$ the mean free path of the phonons $l$ becomes equal to their wavelength because of strong resonant scattering on quasilocal harmonic oscillators. Above this frequency phonons cease to exist. We prove that the established correlation between $\omega_b$ and $\omega_d$ holds in the general case and is a direct consequence of bilinear coupling of quasilocal oscillators with the strain field.Comment: RevTex, 4 pages, 1 figur

Twentieth century delta13C variability in surface water dissolved inorganic carbon recorded by coralline algae in the northern North Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea

The oxygen isotopic composition and Mg/Ca ratios in the skeletons of long-lived coralline algae record ambient seawater temperature over time. Similarly, the carbon isotopic composition in the skeletons record δ13C values of ambient seawater dissolved inorganic carbon. Here, we measured δ13C in the coralline alga Clathromorphum nereostratum to test the feasibility of reconstructing the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2 into the northern North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. The δ13C was measured in the high Mg-calcite skeleton of three C. nereostratum specimens from two islands 500 km apart in the Aleutian archipelago. In the records spanning 1887 to 2003, the average decadal rate of decline in δ13C values increased from 0.03‰ yr−1 in the 1960s to 0.095‰ yr−1 in the 1990s, which was higher than expected due to solely the δ13C-Suess effect. Deeper water in this region exhibits higher concentrations of CO2 and low δ13C values. Transport of deeper water into surface water (i.e., upwelling) increases when the Aleutian Low is intensified. We hypothesized that the acceleration of the δ13C decline may result from increased upwelling from the 1960s to 1990s, which in turn was driven by increased intensity of the Aleutian Low. Detrended δ13C records also varied on 4–7 year and bidecadal timescales supporting an atmospheric teleconnection of tropical climate patterns to the northern North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea manifested as changes in upwelling

Coralline algal Barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes

Rapid, low-input, low-bias construction of shotgun fragment libraries by high-density in vitro transposition

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Genome Biology 11 (2010): R119, doi:10.1186/gb-2010-11-12-r119.We characterize and extend a highly efficient method for constructing shotgun fragment libraries in which transposase catalyzes in vitro DNA fragmentation and adaptor incorporation simultaneously. We apply this method to sequencing a human genome and find that coverage biases are comparable to those of conventional protocols. We also extend its capabilities by developing protocols for sub-nanogram library construction, exome capture from 50 ng of input DNA, PCR-free and colony PCR library construction, and 96-plex sample indexing.This work was supported in part by grants from the National Institutes of Health/National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (R01 HL094976 to JS), the National Institutes of Health/National Human Genome Research Institute (R21 HG004749 to JS), the National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Northwest Regional Center of Excellence for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases at the University of Washington (3U54AI05714), the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, 863 program (2006AA02A301), and an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship (to JOK)