Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations

The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Mead-halls of the Oiscingas: a new Kentish perspective on the Anglo-Saxon great hall complex phenomenon

Widely cited as a metaphor for the emergence of kingship in early medieval England, the great hall complex represents one of the most distinctive and evocative expressions of the Anglo-Saxon settlement record, yet interpretation of these sites remains underdeveloped and heavily weighted towards Yeavering. Inspired by the results of recent excavations at Lyminge, this paper undertakes a detailed comparative interrogation of three great hall complexes in Kent and exploits this new regional perspective to advance understanding of the agency and embodied meanings of these settlements as ‘theatres of power’. Explored through the thematic prisms of place, social memory and monumental hybridity, this examination leads to a new appreciation of the involvement of great hall sites in the genealogical strategies of 7th-century royal dynasties and a fresh perspective on how this remarkable yet short-lived monumental idiom was adapted to harness the symbolic capital of Romanitas

IL10 and IL10 receptor gene variation and outcomes after unrelated and related hematopoietic cell transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Results of a previous study with human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-identical siblings showed individual and synergistic associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the promoter region of the recipient's IL10 gene and the donor's IL10 receptor beta (IL-10RB) gene with development of grades III-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. METHODS: In this study of 936 patients who had unrelated donors, genotypes of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the IL10 gene and the IL-10RB gene were evaluated as correlates with outcomes after transplantation. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant associations of polymorphisms at positions -3575, -2763, -1082, and -592 of the IL10 gene or codon 238 of the IL10RB gene with severe acute GVHD, extensive chronic GVHD or nonrelapse mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation. Among HLA-matched unrelated pairs, the patient's IL10/-592 genotype and donor's IL10RB/c238 genotype showed trends suggesting individual and combined associations with grades III-IV acute GVHD similar to those observed among patients with HLA-identical sibling donors. CONCLUSIONS: Although genetic variation in IL10 pathway affects risk of acute GVHD and non-relapse mortality in HLA-identical sibling transplants, the current results indicate that genetic variation in the IL10 pathway does not significant affect these outcomes in unrelated donor transplants suggesting that the strength of the alloimmune response in the latter exceeds the anti-inflammatory activity of IL10

Evolutionary Repercussions of Avian Culling on Host Resistance and Influenza Virulence

Keeping pandemic influenza at bay is a global health priority. Of particular concern is the continued spread of the influenza subtype H5N1 in avian populations and the increasing frequency of transmission to humans. To decrease this threat, mass culling is the principal strategy for eradicating influenza in avian populations. Although culling has a crucial short-term epidemiological benefit, evolutionary repercussions on reservoir hosts and on the viral population have not been considered.To explore the epidemiological and evolutionary repercussions of mass avian culling, we combine population genetics and epidemiological influenza dynamics in a mathematical model parameterized by clinical, epidemiological, and poultry data. We model the virulence level of influenza and the selection on a dominant allele that confers resistance against influenza [1, 2] in a poultry population. Our findings indicate that culling impedes the evolution of avian host resistance against influenza. On the pathogen side of the coevolutionary race between pathogen and host, culling selects for heightened virulence and transmissibility of influenza.Mass culling achieves a short-term benefit at the expense of long-term detriments: a more genetically susceptible host population, ultimately greater mortality, and elevated influenza virulence

Parasites represent a major selective force for interleukin genes and shape the genetic predisposition to autoimmune conditions

Many human genes have adapted to the constant threat of exposure to infectious agents; according to the “hygiene hypothesis,” lack of exposure to parasites in modern settings results in immune imbalances, augmenting susceptibility to the development of autoimmune and allergic conditions. Here, by estimating the number of pathogen species/genera in a specific geographic location (pathogen richness) for 52 human populations and analyzing 91 interleukin (IL)/IL receptor genes (IL genes), we show that helminths have been a major selective force on a subset of these genes. A population genetics analysis revealed that five IL genes, including IL7R and IL18RAP, have been a target of balancing selection, a selection process that maintains genetic variability within a population. Previous identification of polymorphisms in some of these loci, and their association with autoimmune conditions, prompted us to investigate the relationship between adaptation and disease. By searching for variants in IL genes identified in genome-wide association studies, we verified that six risk alleles for inflammatory bowel (IBD) or celiac disease are significantly correlated with micropathogen richness. These data support the hygiene hypothesis for IBD and provide a large set of putative targets for susceptibility to helminth infections

Genome Wide Analysis of Inbred Mouse Lines Identifies a Locus Containing Ppar-γ as Contributing to Enhanced Malaria Survival

The genetic background of a patient determines in part if a person develops a mild form of malaria and recovers, or develops a severe form and dies. We have used a mouse model to detect genes involved in the resistance or susceptibility to Plasmodium berghei malaria infection. To this end we first characterized 32 different mouse strains infected with P. berghei and identified survival as the best trait to discriminate between the strains. We found a locus on chromosome 6 by linking the survival phenotypes of the mouse strains to their genetic variations using genome wide analyses such as haplotype associated mapping and the efficient mixed-model for association. This new locus involved in malaria resistance contains only two genes and confirms the importance of Ppar-γ in malaria infection

Clonal populations of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in patients with multiple myeloma and paraproteinemia.

Patients with paraproteinemia have abnormalities in their T-cell subsets including inversion of the CD4:CD8 ratio and increased expression of activation markers. Recently, distortions in T-cell receptor (TCR) TCRAV and TCRBV gene segment expression have been reported, although the significance of these observations is unclear given the finding of clonal populations of CD8+ T cells in healthy elderly individuals. We have used an extensive range of TCR V-region-specific monoclonal antibodies to assess TCRAV and TCRBV expression in patients with myeloma and paraproteinemia. TCR sequence analysis was used to assess the clonality of expansions and 3-color fluorescence-activated cell sorting analysis determined the phenotype of the expanded populations. The patients show novel oligoclonal expansions within the CD4+ subset and show an increased frequency of CD8+ expansions. Oligoclonal CD4+ T cells belong to the rare CD4+CD28- T-cell subset, a phenotype associated with granular morphology. CD45RA and CD11b are expressed on many of the CD8 T-cell expansions. Comparison of T-cell receptor sequences from two T-cell clones in one patient suggests a possible role for a common peptide antigen in the generation of the expansions. Further work is needed to identify the relevance of such T cells to the B-cell proliferation