Methods for non-proportional hazards in clinical trials: A systematic review

For the analysis of time-to-event data, frequently used methods such as the log-rank test or the Cox proportional hazards model are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which is often debatable. Although a wide range of parametric and non-parametric methods for non-proportional hazards (NPH) has been proposed, there is no consensus on the best approaches. To close this gap, we conducted a systematic literature search to identify statistical methods and software appropriate under NPH. Our literature search identified 907 abstracts, out of which we included 211 articles, mostly methodological ones. Review articles and applications were less frequently identified. The articles discuss effect measures, effect estimation and regression approaches, hypothesis tests, and sample size calculation approaches, which are often tailored to specific NPH situations. Using a unified notation, we provide an overview of methods available. Furthermore, we derive some guidance from the identified articles. We summarized the contents from the literature review in a concise way in the main text and provide more detailed explanations in the supplement (page 29)

Efficient Adaptive Designs for Clinical Trials of Interventions for COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented response in terms of clinical research activity. An important part of this research has been focused on randomized controlled clinical trials to evaluate potential therapies for COVID-19. The results from this research need to be obtained as rapidly as possible. This presents a number of challenges associated with considerable uncertainty over the natural history of the disease and the number and characteristics of patients affected, and the emergence of new potential therapies. These challenges make adaptive designs for clinical trials a particularly attractive option. Such designs allow a trial to be modified on the basis of interim analysis data or stopped as soon as sufficiently strong evidence has been observed to answer the research question, without compromising the trial's scientific validity or integrity. In this article, we describe some of the adaptive design approaches that are available and discuss particular issues and challenges associated with their use in the pandemic setting. Our discussion is illustrated by details of four ongoing COVID-19 trials that have used adaptive designs

QRS micro-fragmentation as a mortality predictor.

AIMS Fragmented QRS complex with visible notching on standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is understood to represent depolarization abnormalities and to signify risk of cardiac events. Depolarization abnormalities with similar prognostic implications likely exist beyond visual recognition but no technology is presently suitable for quantification of such invisible ECG abnormalities. We present such a technology. METHODS AND RESULTS A signal processing method projects all ECG leads of the QRS complex into optimized three perpendicular dimensions, reconstructs the ECG back from this three-dimensional projection, and quantifies the difference (QRS 'micro'-fragmentation, QRS-μf) between the original and reconstructed signals. QRS 'micro'-fragmentation was assessed in three different populations: cardiac patients with automatic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, cardiac patients with severe abnormalities, and general public. The predictive value of QRS-μf for mortality was investigated both univariably and in multivariable comparisons with other risk factors including visible QRS 'macro'-fragmentation, QRS-Mf. The analysis was made in a total of 7779 subjects of whom 504 have not survived the first 5 years of follow-up. In all three populations, QRS-μf was strongly predictive of survival (P < 0.001 univariably, and P < 0.001 to P = 0.024 in multivariable regression analyses). A similar strong association with outcome was found when dichotomizing QRS-μf prospectively at 3.5%. When QRS-μf was used in multivariable analyses, QRS-Mf and QRS duration lost their predictive value. CONCLUSION In three populations with different clinical characteristics, QRS-μf was a powerful mortality risk factor independent of several previously established risk indices. Electrophysiologic abnormalities that contribute to increased QRS-μf values are likely responsible for the predictive power of visible QRS-Mf. KEY QUESTION KEY FINDING TAKE-HOME MESSAGE QRS-μf is a strong predictor of worsened survival. It can be assessed in standard short-term 12-lead electrocardiograms

Recent advances in methodology for clinical trials in small populations : the InSPiRe project

Where there are a limited number of patients, such as in a rare disease, clinical trials in these small populations present several challenges, including statistical issues. This led to an EU FP7 call for proposals in 2013. One of the three projects funded was the Innovative Methodology for Small Populations Research (InSPiRe) project. This paper summarizes the main results of the project, which was completed in 2017. The InSPiRe project has led to development of novel statistical methodology for clinical trials in small populations in four areas. We have explored new decision-making methods for small population clinical trials using a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework to compare costs with potential benefits, developed approaches for targeted treatment trials, enabling simultaneous identification of subgroups and confirmation of treatment effect for these patients, worked on early phase clinical trial design and on extrapolation from adult to pediatric studies, developing methods to enable use of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics data, and also developed improved robust meta-analysis methods for a small number of trials to support the planning, analysis and interpretation of a trial as well as enabling extrapolation between patient groups. In addition to scientific publications, we have contributed to regulatory guidance and produced free software in order to facilitate implementation of the novel methods

H7N9 influenza split vaccine with SWE oil-in-water adjuvant greatly enhances cross-reactive humoral immunity and protection against severe pneumonia in ferrets

Until universal influenza vaccines become available, pandemic preparedness should include developing classical vaccines against potential pandemic influenza subtypes. We here show that addition of SWE adjuvant, a squalene-in-water emulsion, to H7N9 split influenza vaccine clearly enhanced functional antibody responses in ferrets. These were cross-reactive against H7N9 strains from different lineages and newly emerged H7N9 variants. Both vaccine formulations protected in almost all cases against severe pneumonia induced by intratracheal infection of ferrets with H7N9 influenza; however, the SWE adjuvant enhanced protection against virus replication and disease. Correlation analysis and curve fitting showed that both VN- and NI-titers were better predictors for protection than HI-titers. Moreover, we show that novel algorithms can assist in better interpretation of large data sets generated in preclinical studies. Cluster analysis showed that the adjuvanted vaccine results in robust immunity and protection, whereas the response to the non-adjuvanted vaccine is heterogeneous, such that the protection balance may be more easily tipped toward severe disease. Finally, cluster analysis indicated that the dose-sparing capacity of the adjuvant is at least a factor six, which greatly increases vaccine availability in a pandemic situation.</p

Respiratory syncytial virus vaccine research and development: World Health Organization technological roadmap and preferred product characteristics.

The respiratory syncytial virus causes a considerable respiratory disease burden globally, most markedly in young infants, in low and middle income countries. A diverse product pipeline illustrates the recent intensification of research and development activities for vaccines and monoclonal antibodies against RSV. With the aim to ensure that product development activities are directed to address the public health needs, the World Health Organization has developed a research and development technical roadmap and articulated product characteristics preferences

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction according to the HFA-PEFF score in COVID-19 patients: clinical correlates and echocardiographic findings

Aims: Viral-induced cardiac inflammation can induce heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)-like syndromes. COVID-19 can lead to myocardial damage and vascular injury. We hypothesised that COVID-19 patients frequently develop a HFpEF-like syndrome, and designed this study to explore this. Methods and results: Cardiac function was assessed in 64 consecutive, hospitalized, and clinically stable COVID-19 patients from April-November 2020 with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥50% (age 56 ± 19 years, females: 31%, severe COVID-19 disease: 69%). To investigate likelihood of HFpEF presence, we used the HFA-PEFF score. A low (0-1 points), intermediate (2-4 points), and high (5-6 points) HFA-PEFF score was observed in 42%, 33%, and 25% of patients, respectively. In comparison, 64 subjects of similar age, sex, and comorbidity status without COVID-19 showed these scores in 30%, 66%, and 4%, respectively (between groups: P = 0.0002). High HFA-PEFF scores were more frequent in COVID-19 patients than controls (25% vs. 4%, P = 0.001). In COVID-19 patients, the HFA-PEFF score significantly correlated with age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), haemoglobin, QTc interval, LVEF, mitral E/A ratio, and H2 FPEF score (all P < 0.05). In multivariate, ordinal regression analyses, higher age and hsTnT were significant predictors of increased HFA-PEFF scores. Patients with myocardial injury (hsTnT ≥14 ng/L: 31%) vs. patients without myocardial injury, showed higher HFA-PEFF scores [median 5 (interquartile range 3-6) vs. 1 (0-3), P < 0.001] and more often showed left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (75% vs. 27%, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Hospitalized COVID-19 patients frequently show high likelihood of presence of HFpEF that is associated with cardiac structural and functional alterations, and myocardial injury. Detailed cardiac assessments including echocardiographic determination of left ventricular diastolic function and biomarkers should become routine in the care of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Down selecting adjuvanted vaccine formulations: a comparative method for harmonized evaluation.

The need for rapid and accurate comparison of panels of adjuvanted vaccine formulations and subsequent rational down selection, presents several challenges for modern vaccine development. Here we describe a method which may enable vaccine and adjuvant developers to compare antigen/adjuvant combinations in a harmonized fashion. Three reference antigens: Plasmodium falciparum apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1), hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), and Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigen 85A (Ag85A), were selected as model antigens and were each formulated with three adjuvants: aluminium oxyhydroxide, squalene-in-water emulsion, and a liposome formulation mixed with the purified saponin fraction QS21. The nine antigen/adjuvant formulations were assessed for stability and immunogenicity in mice in order to provide benchmarks against which other formulations could be compared, in order to assist subsequent down selection of adjuvanted vaccines. Furthermore, mouse cellular immune responses were analyzed by measuring IFN-γ and IL-5 production in splenocytes by ELISPOT, and humoral responses were determined by antigen-specific ELISA, where levels of total IgG, IgG1, IgG2b and IgG2c in serum samples were determined. The reference antigens and adjuvants described in this study, which span a spectrum of immune responses, are of potential use as tools to act as points of reference in vaccine development studies. The harmonized methodology described herein may be used as a tool for adjuvant/antigen comparison studies