Impact of changing US cigarette smoking patterns on incident cancer: Risks of 20 smoking-related cancers among the women and men of the NIH-AARP cohort

Background: Historically, US women started smoking at a later age than men and had lower relative risks for smoking-related cancers. However, more recent birth cohorts of women and men have similar smoking histories and have now reached the high-risk age for cancer. The impact of these changes on cancer incidence has not been systematically examined. Methods: Relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and attributable fractions were calculated for cigarette smoking and incidence of 20 smoking-related cancers in 186 057 women and 266 074 men of the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort, aged 50 to 71 years in 1995 and followed for 11 years. Results: In the cohort, which included participants born between 1924 and 1945, most women and men started smoking as teenagers. RRs for current vs never smoking were similar in women and men for the following cancers: lung squamous-cell (RR women: 121.4, 95% CI: 57.3–257.4; RR men:114.6, 95% CI: 61.2–214.4), lung adenocarcinoma (RR women: 11.7, 95% CI: 9.8–14.0; RR men: 15.6, 95% CI: 12.5–19.6), laryngeal (RR women: 37.0, 95% CI: 14.9–92.3; RR men: 13.8, 95% CI: 9.3–20.2), oral cavity-pharyngeal (RR women:4.4, 95% CI: 3.3–6.0; RR men: 3.8, 95% CI: 3.0–4.7), oesophageal squamous cell (RR women: 7.3, 95% CI: 3.5–15.5; RR men: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.8–13.7), bladder (RR women: 4.7, 95% CI: 3.7–5.8; RR men: 4.0, 95% CI: 3.5–4.5), colon (RR women: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2–1.5; RR men: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.4), and at other sites, with similar attributable fractions. Conclusions: RRs for current smoking and incidence of many smoking-related cancers are now similar in US women and men, likely reflecting converging smoking patterns

Predicting Adverse Outcomes for Shiga Toxin–Producing Escherichia coli Infections in Emergency Departments

Objective: To assess the performance of a hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) severity score among children with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections and HUS by stratifying them according to their risk of adverse events. The score has not been previously evaluated in a North American acute care setting. Study design: We reviewed medical records of children \u3c18 years old infected with STEC and treated in 1 of 38 participating emergency departments in North America between 2011 and 2015. The HUS severity score (hemoglobin [g/dL] plus 2-times serum creatinine [mg/dL]) was calculated using first available laboratory results. Children with scores \u3e13 were designated as high-risk. We assessed score performance to predict severe adverse events (ie, dialysis, neurologic complication, respiratory failure, and death) using discrimination and net benefit (ie, threshold probability), with subgroup analyses by age and day-of-illness. Results: A total of 167 children had HUS, of whom 92.8% (155/167) had relevant data to calculate the score; 60.6% (94/155) experienced a severe adverse event. Discrimination was acceptable overall (area under the curve 0.71, 95% CI 0.63-0.79) and better among children \u3c5 years old (area under the curve 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.87). For children \u3c5 years, greatest net benefit was achieved for a threshold probability \u3e26%. Conclusions: The HUS severity score was able to discriminate between high- and low-risk children \u3c5 years old with STEC-associated HUS at a statistically acceptable level; however, it did not appear to provide clinical benefit at a meaningful risk threshold

Intersecting D3-branes and Holography

We study a defect conformal field theory describing D3-branes intersecting over two space-time dimensions. This theory admits an exact Lagrangian description which includes both two- and four-dimensional degrees of freedom, has (4,4) supersymmetry and is invariant under global conformal transformations. Both two- and four-dimensional contributions to the action are conveniently obtained in a two-dimensional (2,2) superspace. In a suitable limit, the theory has a dual description in terms of a probe D3-brane wrapping an AdS_3 x S^1 slice of AdS_5 x S^5. We consider the AdS/CFT dictionary for this set-up. In particular we find classical probe fluctuations corresponding to the holomorphic curve wy=c\alpha^{\prime}. These fluctuations are dual to defect fields containing massless two-dimensional scalars which parameterize the classical Higgs branch, but do not correspond to states in the Hilbert space of the CFT. We also identify probe fluctuations which are dual to BPS superconformal primary operators and to their descendants. A non-renormalization theorem is conjectured for the correlators of these operators, and verified to order g^2.Comment: 46 pages, 5 figures, Latex, minor corrections to section 4.2, version published in Phys. Rev.

Preliminary Report: Missense mutations in the APOL gene family are associated with end stage kidney disease risk previously attributed to the MYH9 gene

MYH9 has been proposed as a major genetic risk locus for a spectrum of non-diabetic end stage kidney disease (ESKD). We use recently released sequences from the 1000 Genomes Project to identify two western African specific missense mutations (S342G and I384M) in the neighbouring APOL1 gene, and demonstrate that these are more strongly associated with ESKD than previously reported MYH9 variants. We also show that the distribution of these risk variants in African populations is consistent with the pattern of African ancestry ESKD risk previously attributed to the MYH9 gene. Additional associations were also found among other members of the APOL gene family, and we propose that ESKD risk is caused by western African variants in members of the APOL gene family, which evolved to confer protection against pathogens, such as Trypanosoma.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Cosmological parameters from CMB and other data: a Monte-Carlo approach

We present a fast Markov Chain Monte-Carlo exploration of cosmological parameter space. We perform a joint analysis of results from recent CMB experiments and provide parameter constraints, including sigma_8, from the CMB independent of other data. We next combine data from the CMB, HST Key Project, 2dF galaxy redshift survey, supernovae Ia and big-bang nucleosynthesis. The Monte Carlo method allows the rapid investigation of a large number of parameters, and we present results from 6 and 9 parameter analyses of flat models, and an 11 parameter analysis of non-flat models. Our results include constraints on the neutrino mass (m_nu < 0.3eV), equation of state of the dark energy, and the tensor amplitude, as well as demonstrating the effect of additional parameters on the base parameter constraints. In a series of appendices we describe the many uses of importance sampling, including computing results from new data and accuracy correction of results generated from an approximate method. We also discuss the different ways of converting parameter samples to parameter constraints, the effect of the prior, assess the goodness of fit and consistency, and describe the use of analytic marginalization over normalization parameters.Comment: Quintessence results now include perturbations. Changes to match version accepted by PRD. MCMC code and data are available at http://cosmologist.info/cosmomc/ along with a B&W printer-friendly version of the pape

Proof of impact and pipeline planning: directions and challenges for social audit in the health sector

Social audits are typically observational studies, combining qualitative and quantitative uptake of evidence with consultative interpretation of results. This often falters on issues of causality because their cross-sectional design limits interpretation of time relations and separation out of other indirect associations

A multi-stage genome-wide association study of bladder cancer identifies multiple susceptibility loci.

We conducted a multi-stage, genome-wide association study of bladder cancer with a primary scan of 591,637 SNPs in 3,532 affected individuals (cases) and 5,120 controls of European descent from five studies followed by a replication strategy, which included 8,382 cases and 48,275 controls from 16 studies. In a combined analysis, we identified three new regions associated with bladder cancer on chromosomes 22q13.1, 19q12 and 2q37.1: rs1014971, (P = 8 × 10⁻¹²) maps to a non-genic region of chromosome 22q13.1, rs8102137 (P = 2 × 10⁻¹¹) on 19q12 maps to CCNE1 and rs11892031 (P = 1 × 10⁻⁷) maps to the UGT1A cluster on 2q37.1. We confirmed four previously identified genome-wide associations on chromosomes 3q28, 4p16.3, 8q24.21 and 8q24.3, validated previous candidate associations for the GSTM1 deletion (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹) and a tag SNP for NAT2 acetylation status (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹), and found interactions with smoking in both regions. Our findings on common variants associated with bladder cancer risk should provide new insights into the mechanisms of carcinogenesis