Tradeoff between short-term and long-term adaptation in a changing environment

We investigate the competition dynamics of two microbial or viral strains that live in an environment that switches periodically between two states. One of the strains is adapted to the long-term environment, but pays a short-term cost, while the other is adapted to the short-term environment and pays a cost in the long term. We explore the tradeoff between these alternative strategies in extensive numerical simulations, and present a simple analytic model that can predict the outcome of these competitions as a function of the mutation rate and the time scale of the environmental changes. Our model is relevant for arboviruses, which alternate between different host species on a regular basis.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, PRE in pres

Development and validation of measures to evaluate adolescents' knowledge about human papillomavirus (HPV), involvement in HPV vaccine decision-making, self-efficacy to receive the vaccine and fear and anxiety

Objectives: We describe the development and validation of measures of human papillomavirus (HPV)/HPV vaccination knowledge, fear/anxiety about vaccination, involvement in HPV vaccine decision-making, and self-efficacy with regard to getting the vaccine, designed to evaluate the efficacy of an intervention to affect these domains (collectively termed the HAVIQ: HPV Adolescent Vaccine Intervention Questionnaire). / Study design: Literature search, cognitive interviews and cross-sectional survey. / Methods: A literature search identified existing items that were modified for the present measures. Experts reviewed draft measures for face and content validity. Cognitive interviews with adolescents were also used to assess content validity. Adolescents completed the measures and an internal reliability analysis of each measure was performed. / Results: The four experts concurred that the measures had face validity. Cognitive interviews identified items requiring refinement. Content validity was examined with ten experts and was deemed acceptable. There were 1800 adolescents who completed the measures; Cronbach's alpha was >0.6 for three of the four measures. The four final measures are brief, comprising 25 items in total. / Conclusions: The measures are robustly developed and validity-tested. The HAVIQ may be used in research settings to evaluate adolescents' knowledge and experiences of the process of HPV vaccination in a school-based vaccination programme

Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU-project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity) with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT) event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, could be followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one reaching almost a height of 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides <sup>10</sup>Be and <sup>7</sup>Be and their ratio <sup>10</sup>Be/<sup>7</sup>Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures with many details the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October 1999) from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric model is shown to be in very good agreement with the observations during this case study, which provides the first successful validation of a chemical tracer that is used operationally in a weather forecast model. This suggests that coupling chemistry and weather forecast models may significantly improve both weather and chemical forecasts in the future

Studies in the Treatment of Malaria: XIII.—Oral Administration of Quinine Sulphate Grains 90 on Two Consecutive Days Only, in Simple Tertian Malaria[Second Series]

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Studies in the Treatment of Malaria: XXIII. Oral Administration of Quinine Sulphate Grains 30 on Each of Two Consecutive Days Weekly, Over a Period of Five Weeks, in Malignant Tertian Malaria

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Thermoelectric Response of an Interacting Two-Dimensional Electron Gas in Quantizing Magnetic Field

We present a discussion of the linear thermoelectric response of an interacting electron gas in a quantizing magnetic field. Boundary currents can carry a significant fraction of the net current passing through the system. We derive general expressions for the bulk and boundary components of the number and energy currents. We show that the local current density may be described in terms of ``transport'' and ``internal magnetization'' contributions. The latter carry no net current and are not observable in standard transport experiments. We show that although Onsager relations cannot be applied to the local current, they are valid for the transport currents and hence for the currents observed in standard transport experiments. We relate three of the four thermoelectric response coefficients of a disorder-free interacting two-dimensional electron gas to equilibrium thermodynamic quantities. In particular, we show that the diffusion thermopower is proportional to the entropy per particle, and we compare this result with recent experimental observations.Comment: 18 pages, 2 postscript figures included. Revtex with epsf.tex and multicol.sty. In the revised version, the comparison with experimental observations at $\nu=1/2, 3/2$ is extended to include the possibility of corrections due to weak impurity scattering. The conclusions that we reach regarding the applicability of the composite fermion model at these filling fractions are not affecte

Renormalization group and nonequilibrium action in stochastic field theory

We investigate the renormalization group approach to nonequilibrium field theory. We show that it is possible to derive nontrivial renormalization group flow from iterative coarse graining of a closed-time-path action. This renormalization group is different from the usual in quantum field theory textbooks, in that it describes nontrivial noise and dissipation. We work out a specific example where the variation of the closed-time-path action leads to the so-called Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation, and show that the renormalization group obtained by coarse graining this action, agrees with the dynamical renormalization group derived by directly coarse graining the equations of motion.Comment: 33 pages, 3 figures included in the text. Revised; one reference adde

BSL-1K: Scaling up co-articulated sign language recognition using mouthing cues

Recent progress in fine-grained gesture and action classification, and machine translation, point to the possibility of automated sign language recognition becoming a reality. A key stumbling block in making progress towards this goal is a lack of appropriate training data, stemming from the high complexity of sign annotation and a limited supply of qualified annotators. In this work, we introduce a new scalable approach to data collection for sign recognition in continuous videos. We make use of weakly-aligned subtitles for broadcast footage together with a keyword spotting method to automatically localise sign-instances for a vocabulary of 1,000 signs in 1,000 hours of video. We make the following contributions: (1) We show how to use mouthing cues from signers to obtain high-quality annotations from video data - the result is the BSL-1K dataset, a collection of British Sign Language (BSL) signs of unprecedented scale; (2) We show that we can use BSL-1K to train strong sign recognition models for co-articulated signs in BSL and that these models additionally form excellent pretraining for other sign languages and benchmarks - we exceed the state of the art on both the MSASL and WLASL benchmarks. Finally, (3) we propose new large-scale evaluation sets for the tasks of sign recognition and sign spotting and provide baselines which we hope will serve to stimulate research in this area.Comment: Appears in: European Conference on Computer Vision 2020 (ECCV 2020). 28 page

Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services and excess 1-year mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity: near real-time data on cancer care, cancer deaths and a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer. METHODS: We employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England. RESULTS: Declines in urgent referrals (median=-70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=-44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks

The State Socialist Mortality Syndrome

Death rates for working-age men in European state socialist countries deviated from general improvements in survival observed in the rest of Europe during the 20th century. The magnitude of structural labor force changes across countries correlates with lagged increases in death rates for men in the working ages. This pattern is consistent with a hypothesis that hyper-development of heavy industry and stagnation (even contraction) of the service sector created anomic conditions leading to unhealthy lifestyles and self-destructive behavior among men moving from primary-sector to secondary-sector occupations. Occupational contrasts within countries similarly show concentration of rising male death rates among blue collar workers. Collapse of state socialist systems produced rapid corrections in labor force structure after 1990, again correlated with a fading of the state socialist mortality syndrome in following decades