We investigate the competition dynamics of two microbial or viral strains
that live in an environment that switches periodically between two states. One
of the strains is adapted to the long-term environment, but pays a short-term
cost, while the other is adapted to the short-term environment and pays a cost
in the long term. We explore the tradeoff between these alternative strategies
in extensive numerical simulations, and present a simple analytic model that
can predict the outcome of these competitions as a function of the mutation
rate and the time scale of the environmental changes. Our model is relevant for
arboviruses, which alternate between different host species on a regular basis.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, PRE in pres
