Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Financial considerations in the conduct of multi-centre randomised controlled trials: evidence from a qualitative study.

National Coordinating Centre for Research Methodology; Medical Research Council, UK Department of Health; Chief Scientist OfficeNot peer reviewedPublisher PD

How important is the context of an adolescent's first alcoholic drink? Evidence that parental provision may reduce later heavy episodic drinking

Objective: This study examined the extent to which a retrospective measure of parental provision of the first alcoholic beverage was related to current heavy episodic drinking and current responsible drinking practices. Sample: 608 14- to 17-year-olds from the 2007 Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Measures: Source of first alcoholic beverage (friends/parents/others), source of current alcohol, age of onset of alcohol use, current responsible drinking practices, and proportion of current friends who drink. Results: Binary logistic and multiple regression procedures revealed that parental provision of an adolescent's first alcoholic beverage predicted lower current heavy episodic drinking, and responsible drinking mediated this association. Discussion: The results suggested that for adolescents who become alcohol users, parental provision of the first drink may reduce subsequent alcohol-related risks compared to introduction to alcohol by friends and other sources. Alcohol-related risks remain significant for adolescents who consume alcohol, independent of who is the provider. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Production of CXC and CC chemokines by human antigen-presenting cells in response to Lassa virus or closely related immunogenic viruses, and in cynomolgus monkeys with lassa fever.

International audienceThe pathogenesis of Lassa fever (LF), a hemorrhagic fever endemic to West Africa, remains unclear. We previously compared Lassa virus (LASV) with its genetically close, but nonpathogenic homolog Mopeia virus (MOPV) and demonstrated that the strong activation of antigen-presenting cells (APC), including type I IFN production, observed in response to MOPV probably plays a crucial role in controlling infection. We show here that human macrophages (MP) produce large amounts of CC and CXC chemokines in response to MOPV infection, whereas dendritic cells (DC) release only moderate amounts of CXC chemokines. However, in the presence of autologous T cells, DCs produced CC and CXC chemokines. Chemokines were produced in response to type I IFN synthesis, as the levels of both mediators were strongly correlated and the neutralization of type I IFN resulted in an inhibition of chemokine production. By contrast, LASV induced only low levels of CXCL-10 and CXCL-11 production. These differences in chemokine production may profoundly affect the generation of virus-specific T-cell responses and may therefore contribute to the difference of pathogenicity between these two viruses. In addition, a recombinant LASV (rLASV) harboring the NP-D389A/G392A mutations, which abolish the inhibition of type I IFN response by nucleoprotein (NP), induced the massive synthesis of CC and CXC chemokines in both DC and MP, confirming the crucial role of arenavirus NP in immunosuppression and pathogenicity. Finally, we confirmed, using PBMC samples and lymph nodes obtained from LASV-infected cynomolgus monkeys, that LF was associated with high levels of CXC chemokine mRNA synthesis, suggesting that the very early synthesis of these mediators may be correlated with a favourable outcome

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Extended-release pharmacotherapies for substance use disorders in incarcerated populations: A systematic review

Background and aims: Substance use (SU) is prevalent among individuals in the criminal justice system (CJS). However, there is often poor access to treatment. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of two medications, extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX) and extended-release buprenorphine (XR-BUP) for the prison population. Methods: We searched Scopus, OVID/Embase, PubMed/Medline, ProQuest, EBSCO, Cochrane Library and Australian Criminology Database for original articles published from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2022. Inclusion criteria: 18+, substance use disorder; XR treatment; recent incarceration. We extracted study, participants, treatment characteristics and outcome variables. We conducted risk of bias assessments using the RoB-2, ROBINS-I, JBI tools and Evers et al. Results: We identified 25 papers (16 studies) examining 3403 participants. Sixteen papers (9 studies) focused on XR-NTX, eight (7 studies) on XR-BUP and one on both. Eighteen papers (11 studies) were from the US, with the remainder from Norway, Australia, UK, Canada and Germany. There were eight RCTs (10 papers), four secondary observational analyses, four cohort studies, four economic analyses, two case series and one qualitative paper. Most studies had small–moderate samples, with varying retention and follow-up periods. Among RCTs, two XR-NTX studies for opioid use found no difference in retention vs treatment as usual and placebo, while one reported improved retention for XR-NTX implant vs methadone. One RCT showed mixed retention results for XR-NTX vs placebo in alcohol use. One XR-BUP study showed improved or equivalent treatment retention (depending on measures) vs sublingual buprenorphine. There was no difference in overdoses. SU for XR-NTX was challenging to assess due to differing definitions, measures and comparators. XR-BUP yielded mixed SU results, with one indicating a greater effect and another no difference from comparators. Conclusions: There is no clear evidence for the effectiveness of extended release naltrexone and buprenorphine among individuals in the criminal justice system compared with shorter acting formulations. But there is growing evidence for the effectiveness of extended release buprenorphine in reducing opioid use and improving treatment retention in that population, with potential cost offsets from initial medication expenses

Population genomics of marine zooplankton

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bucklin, Ann et al. "Population Genomics of Marine Zooplankton." Population Genomics: Marine Organisms. Ed. Om P. Rajora and Marjorie Oleksiak. Springer, 2018. doi:10.1007/13836_2017_9.The exceptionally large population size and cosmopolitan biogeographic distribution that distinguish many – but not all – marine zooplankton species generate similarly exceptional patterns of population genetic and genomic diversity and structure. The phylogenetic diversity of zooplankton has slowed the application of population genomic approaches, due to lack of genomic resources for closelyrelated species and diversity of genomic architecture, including highly-replicated genomes of many crustaceans. Use of numerous genomic markers, especially single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), is transforming our ability to analyze population genetics and connectivity of marine zooplankton, and providing new understanding and different answers than earlier analyses, which typically used mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite markers. Population genomic approaches have confirmed that, despite high dispersal potential, many zooplankton species exhibit genetic structuring among geographic populations, especially at large ocean-basin scales, and have revealed patterns and pathways of population connectivity that do not always track ocean circulation. Genomic and transcriptomic resources are critically needed to allow further examination of micro-evolution and local adaptation, including identification of genes that show evidence of selection. These new tools will also enable further examination of the significance of small-scale genetic heterogeneity of marine zooplankton, to discriminate genetic “noise” in large and patchy populations from local adaptation to environmental conditions and change.Support was provided by the US National Science Foundation to AB and RJO (PLR-1044982) and to RJO (MCB-1613856); support to IS and MC was provided by Nord University (Norway)

Bezlotoxumab for Prevention of Recurrent Clostridium difficile Infection

BACKGROUND Clostridium difficile is the most common cause of infectious diarrhea in hospitalized patients. Recurrences are common after antibiotic therapy. Actoxumab and bezlotoxumab are human monoclonal antibodies against C. difficile toxins A and B, respectively. METHODS We conducted two double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trials, MODIFY I and MODIFY II, involving 2655 adults receiving oral standard-of-care antibiotics for primary or recurrent C. difficile infection. Participants received an infusion of bezlotoxumab (10 mg per kilogram of body weight), actoxumab plus bezlotoxumab (10 mg per kilogram each), or placebo; actoxumab alone (10 mg per kilogram) was given in MODIFY I but discontinued after a planned interim analysis. The primary end point was recurrent infection (new episode after initial clinical cure) within 12 weeks after infusion in the modified intention-to-treat population. RESULTS In both trials, the rate of recurrent C. difficile infection was significantly lower with bezlotoxumab alone than with placebo (MODIFY I: 17% [67 of 386] vs. 28% [109 of 395]; adjusted difference, −10.1 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], −15.9 to −4.3; P<0.001; MODIFY II: 16% [62 of 395] vs. 26% [97 of 378]; adjusted difference, −9.9 percentage points; 95% CI, −15.5 to −4.3; P<0.001) and was significantly lower with actoxumab plus bezlotoxumab than with placebo (MODIFY I: 16% [61 of 383] vs. 28% [109 of 395]; adjusted difference, −11.6 percentage points; 95% CI, −17.4 to −5.9; P<0.001; MODIFY II: 15% [58 of 390] vs. 26% [97 of 378]; adjusted difference, −10.7 percentage points; 95% CI, −16.4 to −5.1; P<0.001). In prespecified subgroup analyses (combined data set), rates of recurrent infection were lower in both groups that received bezlotoxumab than in the placebo group in subpopulations at high risk for recurrent infection or for an adverse outcome. The rates of initial clinical cure were 80% with bezlotoxumab alone, 73% with actoxumab plus bezlotoxumab, and 80% with placebo; the rates of sustained cure (initial clinical cure without recurrent infection in 12 weeks) were 64%, 58%, and 54%, respectively. The rates of adverse events were similar among these groups; the most common events were diarrhea and nausea. CONCLUSIONS Among participants receiving antibiotic treatment for primary or recurrent C. difficile infection, bezlotoxumab was associated with a substantially lower rate of recurrent infection than placebo and had a safety profile similar to that of placebo. The addition of actoxumab did not improve efficacy. (Funded by Merck; MODIFY I and MODIFY II ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01241552 and NCT01513239.

The consequences of reservoir host eradication on disease epidemiology in animal communities.

Non-native species have often been linked with introduction of novel pathogens that spill over into native communities, and the amplification of the prevalence of native parasites. In the case of introduced generalist pathogens, their disease epidemiology in the extant communities remains poorly understood. Here, Sphaerothecum destruens, a generalist fungal-like fish pathogen with bi-modal transmission (direct and environmental) was used to characterise the biological drivers responsible for disease emergence in temperate fish communities. A range of biotic factors relating to both the pathogen and the surrounding host communities were used in a novel susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to test how these factors affected disease epidemiology. These included: (i) pathogen prevalence in an introduced reservoir host (Pseudorasbora parva); (ii) the impact of reservoir host eradication and its timing and (iii) the density of potential hosts in surrounding communities and their connectedness. These were modelled across 23 combinations and indicated that the spill-over of pathogen propagules via environmental transmission resulted in rapid establishment in adjacent fish communities (<1 year). Although disease dynamics were initially driven by environmental transmission in these communities, once sufficient numbers of native hosts were infected, the disease dynamics were driven by intra-species transmission. Subsequent eradication of the introduced host, irrespective of its timing (after one, two or three years), had limited impact on the long-term disease dynamics among local fish communities. These outputs reinforced the importance of rapid detection and eradication of non-native species, in particular when such species are identified as healthy reservoirs of a generalist pathogen