Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Johannesburg, 2014.Climate change (CC) is expected to have profound impacts on biodiversity, but predicting these remains a major scientific challenge. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus largely on measuring exposure to CC, ignoring the biological traits that may significantly increase or reduce species’ vulnerability. In addition, their input requirements restrict use to wide-spread and better-studied species, creating taxonomic and geographic biases in global CC vulnerability estimates. To address this, I developed a framework which draws on both biological traits and exposure modelling to assess three dimensions of CC, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In the first fully-representative study of entire taxonomic groups, my collaborators and I applied this framework to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). Results identify the Amazon as an area of high concentration of CC vulnerable birds and amphibians, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. Comparisons with species’ IUCN Red List threat statuses reveal species and regions both of new and greatest overall priority for conservation globally

Distinct mechanisms of Drosophila CRYPTOCHROME-mediated light-evoked membrane depolarization and in vivo clock resetting.

Drosophila CRYPTOCHROME (dCRY) mediates electrophysiological depolarization and circadian clock resetting in response to blue or ultraviolet (UV) light. These light-evoked biological responses operate at different timescales and possibly through different mechanisms. Whether electron transfer down a conserved chain of tryptophan residues underlies biological responses following dCRY light activation has been controversial. To examine these issues in in vivo and in ex vivo whole-brain preparations, we generated transgenic flies expressing tryptophan mutant dCRYs in the conserved electron transfer chain and then measured neuronal electrophysiological phototransduction and behavioral responses to light. Electrophysiological-evoked potential analysis shows that dCRY mediates UV and blue-light-evoked depolarizations that are long lasting, persisting for nearly a minute. Surprisingly, dCRY appears to mediate red-light-evoked depolarization in wild-type flies, absent in both cry-null flies, and following acute treatment with the flavin-specific inhibitor diphenyleneiodonium in wild-type flies. This suggests a previously unsuspected functional signaling role for a neutral semiquinone flavin state (FADH•) for dCRY. The W420 tryptophan residue located closest to the FAD-dCRY interaction site is critical for blue- and UV-light-evoked electrophysiological responses, while other tryptophan residues within electron transfer distance to W420 do not appear to be required for light-evoked electrophysiological responses. Mutation of the dCRY tryptophan residue W342, more distant from the FAD interaction site, mimics the cry-null behavioral light response to constant light exposure. These data indicate that light-evoked dCRY electrical depolarization and clock resetting are mediated by distinct mechanisms

Improving Science-Policy Interfaces: Recommendations for JPI Oceans

The report builds on the outcomes of the first publication of the CSA Oceans Work Package 5. In this public deliverable, we aim to supplement the outcomes of the consultations to determine the current and future needs of policy makers and advisors from relevant international, European and national public bodies. We also discuss what actions JPI Oceans could do to add value to existing science-policy mechanisms. This is considered in the context of joint programming, and looks at how other similar organisations have been effective at adding value. Firstly, we explore five examples of science-policy mechanisms as case studies. The case studies were selected to demonstrate examples of best practice, including examples highlighted by stakeholders and other known mechanisms, to explore how they work and what makes them effective. The second section of this report investigates how new technology and methodologies could be useful in improving science-policy interfaces. This section contains a number of specific examples of existing projects that could be considered relevant or cutting edge, while they are not discussed in detail, links have been provided for further reading. There are several examples of ongoing work in individual Member States; these examples are mostly drawn from the CSA Oceans consultation exercise. The third section explores how JPI Oceans could act to improve science-policy interfaces. This section looks at the recommendations made by stakeholders and attempts to briefly summarise the context and identifies how JPI Oceans could add value without duplicating existing efforts in the field. In this section we also discuss how JPI Oceans could add value to the science-policy interactions in ten strategic areas identified by its Strategic Advisory Board (StAB). These areas were defined in a workshop held between CSA Oceans and the StAB in July, 2014

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

Peer reviewe

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate-adaptation planning and climate-smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute-based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist-in-place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift-in-space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.publishedVersio

A decision framework to integrate in-situ and ex-situ management for species in the European Union

Zoos and aquaria in the European Union (EU) can play a crucial role in the conservation of EU species, as they currently hold nearly half (49%) of EU terrestrial vertebrates. In this study, we analyzed the species composition and population sizes of EU zoos and developed a framework to prioritize recommendations for additional ex-situ and in-situ interventions for 277 at-risk EU species. Our results showed that EU zoos currently hold 39% of threatened EU species, 27% of EU endemic species, 62% of EU species vulnerable to climate change, 20% of EU species listed by the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE), 25% of Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) EU species, while only 5% are subject to ex-situ conservation. Using our framework, we found that additional captive breeding was recommended for 60-61%% of species while expanding protected areas was recommended for only 2–22%, as 217 out of 277 species already met habitat protection targets. Both interventions were recommended for up to 20% of species, while the remaining 18% required no interventions because captive populations and habitat protection fully met targets. Our flexible framework can support more effective integrated conservation planning decisions for EU species and help identify target species for further in-depth assessment by the IUCN Ex-situ guidelines

The Positive Impact of Conservation Action

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets

JPI Oceans Concerted support action deliverable 5.1 'Mapping and preliminary analysis of policy needs for evidence'

CSA Oceans preliminary analysis of policy needs CSA Oceans has completed its preliminary analysis of policy needs. The public deliverable reports on the current status of marine and maritime policies relevant to JPI Oceans and identifies examples of science to policy mechanisms. The report uses stakeholder input to identify the needs of different policies to fulfil their objectives. One of the underlying issues is thought to be a lack of integration between marine and maritime activities. It was suggested that new technologies, integrated systems and greater data sharing could be the key to developing more holistic management strategies. Stakeholders also identified several examples of effective science to policy mechanisms which include ICES, the IPCC assessment, and science-policy activities of the European Marine Board. Evidence for the public deliverable was gathered from three stakeholder consultation exercises conducted in 2013. This involved a series of stakeholder workshops, a national funding agencies questionnaire, and an online consultation. Next steps The next step for CSA Oceans - Work Package 5 is to build on the findings of the first deliverable. The next deliverable will develop case studies, based on the examples identified, and suggest how JPI Oceans could improve science to policy mechanisms in Europe. Both deliverables of Work Package 5 will be used to inform the content of the JPI Oceans Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda and Implementation Plan. Stakeholder inputs are at the core of this deliverable to ensure that the Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda and the Implementation Plan are developed in parallel with the opinions of the European marine and maritime community