Wolf monitoring in Scandinavia: evaluating counts of packs and reproduction events

Large carnivores are elusive and use large areas, which causes monitoring to be challenging and costly. Moreover, management to reduce conflicts and simultaneously ensure long-term population viability require precise population estimates. In Scandinavia, the monitoring of wolves (Canis lupus) is primarily based on counting packs, identifying reproduction, and genetically identifying territorial wolves from noninvasive DNA samples. We assessed the reliability of wolf monitoring in Scandinavia by estimating the detectability of territorial pairs, packs, and reproduction. Our data, comprising snow-tracking data and DNA-identified individuals from 2005-2016, covered 11 consecutive winter monitoring seasons (Oct-Mar). Among 343 cases where we identified a wolf pack, territorial wolves were also detected in the same area during the previous season in 323 (94.2%) cases. In only 6 of the remaining 20 cases, there was no prior knowledge of territorial wolves in the area. Among the 328 detected reproduction events (litter born to a pack), we detected 97% during the monitoring period and identified the rest >= 1 year later from kinship assessments of all DNA-detected individuals. These results suggest that we failed to detect only few packs with reproduction events during the monitoring season that followed breeding. Yearly monitoring of territorial individuals and continuous updates of the pedigree allowed us to retrospectively identify reproduction events and packs that were not identified earlier

Genetic signature of immigrants and their effect on genetic diversity in the recently established Scandinavian wolf population

Transboundary connectivity is a key component when conserving and managing animal species that require large areas to maintain viable population sizes. Wolves Canis lupus recolonized the Scandinavian Peninsula in the early 1980s. The population is geographically isolated and relies on immigration to not lose genetic diversity and to maintain long term viability. In this study we address (1) to what extent the genetic diversity among Scandinavian wolves has recovered during 30 years since its foundation in relation to the source populations in Finland and Russia, (2) if immigration has occurred from both Finland and Russia, two countries with very different wolf management and legislative obligations to ensure long term viability of wolves, and (3) if immigrants can be assumed to be unrelated. Using 26 microsatellite loci we found that although the genetic diversity increased among Scandinavian wolves (n = 143), it has not reached the same levels found in Finland (n = 25) or in Russia (n = 19). Low genetic differentiation between Finnish and Russian wolves, complicated our ability to determine the origin of immigrant wolves (n = 20) with respect to nationality. Nevertheless, based on differences in allelic richness and private allelic richness between the two countries, results supported the occurrence of immigration from both countries. A priori assumptions that immigrants are unrelated is non-advisable, since 5.8% of the pair-wise analyzed immigrants were closely related. To maintain long term viability of wolves in Northern Europe, this study highlights the potential and need for management actions that facilitate transboundary dispersal

Whole-genome resequencing of temporally stratified samples reveals substantial loss of haplotype diversity in the highly inbred Scandinavian wolf population

Genetic drift can dramatically change allele frequencies in small populations and lead to reduced levels of genetic diversity, including loss of segregating variants. However, there is a shortage of quantitative studies of how genetic diversity changes over time in natural populations, especially on genome-wide scales. Here, we analyzed whole-genome sequences from 76 wolves of a highly inbred Scandinavian population, founded by only one female and two males, sampled over a period of 30 yr. We obtained chromosome-level haplotypes of all three founders and found that 10%-24% of their diploid genomes had become lost after about 20 yr of inbreeding (which approximately corresponds to five generations). Lost haplotypes spanned large genomic regions, as expected from the amount of recombination during this limited time period. Altogether, 160,000 SNP alleles became lost from the population, which may include adaptive variants as well as wild-type alleles masking recessively deleterious alleles. Although not sampled, we could indirectly infer that the two male founders had megabase-sized runs of homozygosity and that all three founders showed significant haplotype sharing, meaning that there were on average only 4.2 unique haplotypes in the six copies of each autosome that the founders brought into the population. This violates the assumption of unrelated founder haplotypes often made in conservation and management of endangered species. Our study provides a novel view of how whole-genome resequencing of temporally stratified samples can be used to visualize and directly quantify the consequences of genetic drift in a small inbred population

Scavenging patterns of an inbred wolf population in a landscape with a pulse of human-provided carrion

Scavenging is an important part of food acquisition for many carnivore species that switch between scavenging and predation. In landscapes with anthropogenic impact, humans provide food that scavenging species can utilize. We quantified the magnitude of killing versus scavenging by gray wolves (Canis lupus) in Scandinavia where humans impact the ecosystem through hunter harvest, land use practices, and infrastructure. We investigated the cause of death of different animals utilized by wolves, and examined how the proportion of their consumption time spent scavenging was influenced by season, wolf social affiliation, level of inbreeding, density of moose (Alces alces) as their main prey, density of brown bear (Ursus arctos) as an intraguild competitor, and human density. We used data from 39 GPS-collared wolves covering 3198 study days (2001-2019), including 14,205 feeding locations within space-time clusters, and 1362 carcasses utilized by wolves. Most carcasses were wolf-killed (80.5%) while a small part had died from other natural causes (1.9%). The remaining had either anthropogenic mortality causes (4.7%), or the cause of death was unknown (12.9%). Time spent scavenging was higher during winter than during summer and autumn. Solitary wolves spent more time scavenging than pack-living individuals, likely because individual hunting success is lower than pack success. Scavenging time increased with the mean inbreeding coefficient of the adult wolves, possibly indicating that more inbred individuals resort to scavenging, which requires less body strength. There was weak evidence for competition between wolves and brown bears as well as a positive relationship between human density and time spent scavenging. This study shows how both intrinsic and extrinsic factors drive wolf scavenging behavior, and that despite a high level of inbreeding and access to carrion of anthropogenic origin, wolves mainly utilized their own kills

Whole-genome resequencing of temporally stratified samples reveals substantial loss of haplotype diversity in the highly inbred Scandinavian wolf population

Genetic drift can dramatically change allele frequencies in small populations and lead to reduced levels of genetic diversity, including loss of segregating variants. However, there is a shortage of quantitative studies of how genetic diversity changes over time in natural populations, especially on genome-wide scales. Here, we analyzed whole-genome sequences from 76 wolves of a highly inbred Scandinavian population, founded by only one female and two males, sampled over a period of 30 yr. We obtained chromosome-level haplotypes of all three founders and found that 10%-24% of their diploid genomes had become lost after about 20 yr of inbreeding (which approximately corresponds to five generations). Lost haplotypes spanned large genomic regions, as expected from the amount of recombination during this limited time period. Altogether, 160,000 SNP alleles became lost from the population, which may include adaptive variants as well as wild-type alleles masking recessively deleterious alleles. Although not sampled, we could indirectly infer that the two male founders had megabase-sized runs of homozygosity and that all three founders showed significant haplotype sharing, meaning that there were on average only 4.2 unique haplotypes in the six copies of each autosome that the founders brought into the population. This violates the assumption of unrelated founder haplotypes often made in conservation and management of endangered species. Our study provides a novel view of how whole-genome resequencing of temporally stratified samples can be used to visualize and directly quantify the consequences of genetic drift in a small inbred population

Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected-typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%-98.2%, sheep 4.2%-36.1% and wolf 84.0%-99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible