Small Extended Generalized Quadrangles

We consider extensions of generalized quadrangles with parameters (s, t), and establish lower bounds (in terms of s and t) for the number of points, sometimes under additional hypotheses. We also study the structure of geometries attaining these bounds, give several constructions and some uniqueness proofs, and examine the question of further extensions

Preservation of glaciochemical time-series in snow and ice from the Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island

A detailed investigation of major ion concentrations of snow and ice in the summit region of Penny Ice Cap (PIC) was performed to determine the effects of summer melt on the glaciochemical time-series. While ion migration due to meltwater percolation makes it difficult to confidently count annual layers in the glaciochemical profiles, time-series of these parameters do show good structure and a strong one year spectral component, suggesting that annual to biannual signals are preserved in PIC glaciochemical records

Extreme Value Theory and the Solar Cycle

We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time series of sunspots. We focus on the extreme events that exceed a carefully chosen threshold and a generalized Pareto distribution is fitted to the tail of the empirical cumulative distribution. A maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution and confidence levels are also given to the parameters. Due to the lack of an automatic procedure for selecting the threshold, we analyze the sensitivity of the fitted generalized Pareto distribution to the exact value of the threshold. According to the available data, that only spans the previous ~250 years, the cumulative distribution of the time series is bounded, yielding an upper limit of 324 for the sunspot number. We also estimate that the return value for each solar cycle is ~188, while the return value for a century increases to ~228. Finally, the results also indicate that the most probable return time for a large event like the maximum at solar cycle 19 happens once every ~700 years and that the probability of finding such a large event with a frequency smaller than ~50 years is very small. In spite of the essentially extrapolative character of these results, their statistical significance is very large.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Model selection and prediction of outcomes in recent onset schizophrenia patients who undergo cognitive training.

Predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatric populations remains a challenge, but is increasingly important in the pursuit of personalized medicine. Patients with schizophrenia have deficits in cognition, and targeted cognitive training (TCT) of auditory processing and working memory has been shown to improve some of these impairments; but little is known about the baseline patient characteristics predictive of cognitive improvement. Here we use a model selection and regression approach called least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to examine predictors of cognitive improvement in response to TCT for patients with recent onset schizophrenia. Forty-three individuals with recent onset schizophrenia randomized to undergo TCT were assessed at baseline on measures of cognition, symptoms, functioning, illness duration, and demographic variables. We carried out 10-fold cross-validation of LASSO for model selection and regression. We followed up on these results using linear models for statistical inference. No individual variable was found to correlate with improvement in global cognition using a Pearson correlation approach, and a linear model including all variables was also found not to be significant. However, the LASSO model identified baseline global cognition, education, and gender in a model predictive of improvement on global cognition following TCT. These findings offer guidelines for personalized approaches to cognitive training for patients with schizophrenia

The Effect of Dust Extinction on the Observed Properties of Galaxies in the Near-Infrared

Galaxies behind the Milky Way suffer size reduction and dimming due to their obscuration by dust in the disk of our Galaxy. The degree of obscuration is wavelength dependent. It decreases towards longer wavelengths. Compared to the optical, the Near InfraRed (NIR) $K_s$ band extinction is only $\approx10$ that of the $B$ band. This makes NIR surveys well suited for galaxy surveys close to the Galactic Plane where extinction is severe. While Galactic obscuration is less prominent in the NIR it is not negligible. In this paper we derive empirical relations to correct isophotal radii and magnitudes of galaxies observed in the NIR for foreground absorption. We simulate extinction in the $J$, $H$ and $K_s$ bands on 64 (unobscured) galaxies from the 2MASS Large Galaxy Atlas \citep{jarrett}. We propose two methods for the extinction correction, the first is optimized to provide the most accurate correction and the second provides a convenient statistical correction that works adequately in lower extinction regions. The optimized correction utilizes the galaxy surface brightness, either the disk central surface brightness, $\mu_0$, or the combined disk plus bulge central surface brightness, elliptical and disk/spiral Hubble types. A detailed comparison between the different methods and their accuracy is provided.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures and 8 tables. Accepted by the MNRAS: Accepted 2009 September 18. Received 2009 September 18; in original form 2009 July 1

Steiner t-designs for large t

One of the most central and long-standing open questions in combinatorial design theory concerns the existence of Steiner t-designs for large values of t. Although in his classical 1987 paper, L. Teirlinck has shown that non-trivial t-designs exist for all values of t, no non-trivial Steiner t-design with t > 5 has been constructed until now. Understandingly, the case t = 6 has received considerable attention. There has been recent progress concerning the existence of highly symmetric Steiner 6-designs: It is shown in [M. Huber, J. Algebr. Comb. 26 (2007), pp. 453-476] that no non-trivial flag-transitive Steiner 6-design can exist. In this paper, we announce that essentially also no block-transitive Steiner 6-design can exist.Comment: 9 pages; to appear in: Mathematical Methods in Computer Science 2008, ed. by J.Calmet, W.Geiselmann, J.Mueller-Quade, Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Scienc

Ice Cores from the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada: Their Significance for Climate, Atmospheric Composition and Volcanism in the North Pacific Region

A major achievement in research supported by the Kluane Lake Research Station was the recovery, in 2001 –02, of a suite of cores from the icefields of the central St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, by teams of researchers from Canada, the United States, and Japan. This project led to the development of parallel, long (103 – 104 year) ice-core records of climate and atmospheric change over an altitudinal range of more than 2 km, from the Eclipse Icefield (3017 m) to the ice-covered plateau of Mt. Logan (5340 m). These efforts built on earlier work recovering single ice cores in this region. Comparison of these records has allowed for variations in climate and atmospheric composition to be linked with changes in the vertical structure and dynamics of the North Pacific atmosphere, providing a unique perspective on these changes over the Holocene. Owing to their privileged location, cores from the St. Elias Icefields also contain a remarkably detailed record of aerosols from various sources around or across the North Pacific. In this paper we review major scientific findings from the study of St. Elias Mountain ice cores, focusing on five main themes: (1) The record of stable water isotopes (δ18O, δD), which has unique characteristics that differ from those of Greenland, other Arctic ice cores, and even among sites in the St. Elias; (2) the snow accumulation history; (3) the record of pollen, biomass burning aerosol, and desert dust deposition; (4) the record of long-range air pollutant deposition (sulphate and lead); and (5) the record of paleo-volcanism. Our discussion draws on studies published since 2000, but based on older ice cores from the St. Elias Mountains obtained in 1980 and 1996

Drifting to oblivion? Rapid genetic differentiation in an endangered lizard following habitat fragmentation and drought

Aim The frequency and severity of habitat alterations and disturbance are predicted to increase in upcoming decades, and understanding how disturbance affects population integrity is paramount for adaptive management. Although rarely is population genetic sampling conducted at multiple time points, preand post-disturbance comparisons may provide one of the clearest methods to measure these impacts. We examined how genetic properties of the federally threatened Coachella Valley fringe-toed lizard (Uma inornata) responded to severe drought and habitat fragmentation across its range. Location Coachella Valley, California, USA. Methods We used 11 microsatellites to examine population genetic structure and diversity in 1996 and 2008, before and after a historic drought. We used Bayesian assignment methods and F-statistics to estimate genetic structure. We compared allelic richness across years to measure loss of genetic diversity and employed approximate Bayesian computing methods and heterozygote excess tests to explore the recent demographic history of populations. Finally, we compared effective population size across years and to abundance estimates to determine whether diversity remained low despite post-drought recovery. Results Genetic structure increased between sampling periods, likely as a result of population declines during the historic drought of the late 1990s–early 2000s, and habitat loss and fragmentation that precluded post-drought genetic rescue. Simulations supported recent demographic declines in 3 of 4 main preserves, and in one preserve, we detected significant loss of allelic richness. Effective population sizes were generally low across the range, with estimates ≤100 in most sites. Main conclusions Fragmentation and drought appear to have acted synergistically to induce genetic change over a short time frame. Progressive deterioration of connectivity, low Ne and measurable loss of genetic diversity suggest that conservation efforts have not maintained the genetic integrity of this species. Genetic sampling over time can help evaluate population trends to guide management

Improving adherence to colorectal cancer surveillance guidelines: results of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors are at increased risk of developing the disease again. Surveillance guidelines are aimed at maximising the early detection of recurring or new cancers and pre-cancerous polyps. The frequency and type of surveillance recommended depends on the type of treatment for the initial CRC, the extent of colonoscopic investigation prior to treatment and the results of previous surveillance tests. This paper aimed to test the effect of a paper–based educational intervention to improve adherence to colonoscopy following treatment for colorectal cancer. METHODS: People with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer within the last 10 months, aged ≥18 and English speaking were recruited through a population-based cancer registry in Australia. Participants were randomly allocated to either the intervention or control. Participants completed an interview at baseline. Self-reported participation in colonoscopy was obtained at 12 month followup by survey. Those allocated to the control received a generic pamphlet on colorectal cancer treatment; while intervention participants received a letter which provided specific information about guideline recommendations for surveillance colonoscopy. Rates of guideline adherence were compared between groups. The guideline recommendations for the timing of surveillance colonoscopy changed part way through the study. This change occurred after all intervention materials had been sent, but prior to all participants completing the 12 month follow up. Post hoc analyses were conducted to assess adherence to the new guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 767 participants, 604 (79%) had had surgery, had stage I – III disease and completed the baseline interview within 12 months of diagnosis (intervention = 305; control = 299). There was no significant difference between those adherent to surveillance colonoscopy guidelines, in the control (67, 27%) and intervention groups (80, 31%) at followup (difference = 4.3% (95%CI:-3.7%, 12%), χ2(1df) = 1.09, P = 0.296). Overall, 246 (49%) participants were adherent to the new guidelines, compared to 147 (29%) adherent to the old guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate the paper-based educational intervention is not effective in improving adherence to colorectal cancer surveillance guidelines for colonoscopy.This research was supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council grant (Grant ID 510776), a Strategic Research Partnership Grant from Cancer Council NSW to the Newcastle Cancer Control Collaborative (New- 3C), and infrastructure funding from the Hunter Medical Research Institute. Dr. Mariko Carey is supported by a NHMRC TRIP Fellowshi

How bias correction goes wrong: measurement of X_(CO_2) affected by erroneous surface pressure estimates

All measurements of X_(CO_2) from space have systematic errors. To reduce a large fraction of these errors, a bias correction is applied to X_(CO_2) retrieved from GOSAT and OCO-2 spectra using the ACOS retrieval algorithm. The bias correction uses, among other parameters, the surface pressure difference between the retrieval and the meteorological reanalysis. Relative errors in the surface pressure estimates, however, propagate nearly 1:1 into relative errors in bias-corrected X_(CO_2). For OCO-2, small errors in the knowledge of the pointing of the observatory (up to ∼130 arcsec) introduce a bias in X_(CO_2) in regions with rough topography. Erroneous surface pressure estimates are also caused by a coding error in ACOS version 8, sampling meteorological analyses at wrong times (up to 3 h after the overpass time). Here, we derive new geolocations for OCO-2's eight footprints and show how using improved knowledge of surface pressure estimates in the bias correction reduces errors in OCO-2's v9 X_(CO_2) data