Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions

The WFC3 Galactic Bulge Treasury Program: A First Look at Resolved Stellar Population Tools

[Abridged] When WFC3 is installed on HST, the community will have powerful new tools for investigating resolved stellar populations. The WFC3 Galactic Bulge Treasury program will obtain deep imaging on 4 low-extinction fields. These non-proprietary data will enable a variety of science investigations not possible with previous data sets. To aid in planning for the use of these data and for future proposals, we provide an introduction to the program, its photometric system, and the associated calibration effort. The observing strategy is based upon a new 5-band photometric system spanning the UV, optical, and near-infrared. With these broad bands, one can construct reddening-free indices of Teff and [Fe/H]. Besides the 4 bulge fields, the program will target 6 fields in well-studied star clusters, spanning a wide range of [Fe/H]. The cluster data serve to calibrate the indices, provide population templates, and correct the transformation of isochrones into the WFC3 photometric system. The bulge data will shed light on the bulge formation history, and will also serve as population templates for other studies. One of the fields includes 12 candidate hosts of extrasolar planets. CMDs are the most popular tool for analyzing resolved stellar populations. However, due to degeneracies among Teff, [Fe/H], and reddening in traditional CMDs, it can be difficult to draw robust conclusions from the data. The 5-band system used for the bulge Treasury observations will provide indices that are roughly orthogonal in Teff and [Fe/H], and we argue that model fitting in an index-index diagram will make better use of the information than fitting separate CMDs. We provide simulations to show the expected data quality and the potential for differentiating between different star-formation histories.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal. 9 pages, 8 figures, latex, AJ forma

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change

The antisaccade task as an index of sustained goal activation in working memory: modulation by nicotine

The antisaccade task provides a laboratory analogue of situations in which execution of the correct behavioural response requires the suppression of a more prepotent or habitual response. Errors (failures to inhibit a reflexive prosaccade towards a sudden onset target) are significantly increased in patients with damage to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and patients with schizophrenia. Recent models of antisaccade performance suggest that errors are more likely to occur when the intention to initiate an antisaccade is insufficiently activated within working memory. Nicotine has been shown to enhance specific working memory processes in healthy adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We explored the effect of nicotine on antisaccade performance in a large sample (N = 44) of young adult smokers. Minimally abstinent participants attended two test sessions and were asked to smoke one of their own cigarettes between baseline and retest during one session only. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Nicotine reduced antisaccade errors and correct antisaccade latencies if delivered before optimum performance levels are achieved, suggesting that nicotine supports the activation of intentions in working memory during task performance. The implications of this research for current theoretical accounts of antisaccade performance, and for interpreting the increased rate of antisaccade errors found in some psychiatric patient groups are discussed

Phase Separation and Magnetic Order in K-doped Iron Selenide Superconductor

Alkali-doped iron selenide is the latest member of high Tc superconductor family, and its peculiar characters have immediately attracted extensive attention. We prepared high-quality potassium-doped iron selenide (KxFe2-ySe2) thin films by molecular beam epitaxy and unambiguously demonstrated the existence of phase separation, which is currently under debate, in this material using scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy. The stoichiometric superconducting phase KFe2Se2 contains no iron vacancies, while the insulating phase has a \surd5\times\surd5 vacancy order. The iron vacancies are shown always destructive to superconductivity in KFe2Se2. Our study on the subgap bound states induced by the iron vacancies further reveals a magnetically-related bipartite order in the superconducting phase. These findings not only solve the existing controversies in the atomic and electronic structures in KxFe2-ySe2, but also provide valuable information on understanding the superconductivity and its interplay with magnetism in iron-based superconductors

New mobilities across the lifecourse: A framework for analysing demographically-linked drivers of migration

Date of acceptance: 17/02/2015Taking the life course as the central concern, the authors set out a conceptual framework and define some key research questions for a programme of research that explores how the linked lives of mobile people are situated in time–space within the economic, social, and cultural structures of contemporary society. Drawing on methodologically innovative techniques, these perspectives can offer new insights into the changing nature and meanings of migration across the life course.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Inverse Estimation of an Annual Cycle of California's Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Nitrous oxide (N_2O) is a potent long‐lived greenhouse gas (GHG) and the strongest current emissions of global anthropogenic stratospheric ozone depletion weighted by its ozone depletion potential. In California, N_2O is the third largest contributor to the state's anthropogenic GHG emission inventory, though no study has quantified its statewide annual emissions through top‐down inverse modeling. Here we present the first annual (2013–2014) statewide top‐down estimates of anthropogenic N_2O emissions. Utilizing continuous N_2O observations from six sites across California in a hierarchical Bayesian inversion, we estimate that annual anthropogenic emissions are 1.5–2.5 times (at 95% confidence) the state inventory (41 Gg N_2O in 2014). Without mitigation, this estimate represents 4–7% of total GHG emissions assuming that other reported GHG emissions are reasonably correct. This suggests that control of N_2O could be an important component in meeting California's emission reduction goals of 40% and 80% below 1990 levels of the total GHG emissions (in CO_2 equivalent) by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Our seasonality analysis suggests that emissions are similar across seasons within posterior uncertainties. Future work is needed to provide source attribution for subregions and further characterization of seasonal variability

Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions

Transiting extrasolar planetary candidates in the Galactic bulge

More than 200 extrasolar planets have been discovered around relatively nearby stars, primarily through the Doppler line shifts owing to the reflex motions of their host stars, and more recently through transits of some planets across the face of the host stars. The detection of planets with the shortest known periods, 1.2 to 2.5 days, has mainly resulted from transit surveys which have generally targeted stars more massive than 0.75 M_sun. Here we report the results from a planetary transit search performed in a rich stellar field towards the Galactic bulge. We discovered 16 candidates with orbital periods between 0.4 and 4.2 days, five of which orbit stars of 0.44 to 0.75 M_sun. In two cases, radial-velocity measurements support the planetary nature of the companions. Five candidates have orbital periods below 1.0 day, constituting a new class of ultra-short-period planets (USPPs), which occur only around stars of less than 0.88 M_sun. This indicates that those orbiting very close to more luminous stars might be evaporatively destroyed, or that jovian planets around lower-mass stars might migrate to smaller radii.Comment: To appear in October 5, 2006 issue of Natur

Search for solar axion emission from 7Li and D(p,gamma)3He nuclear decays with the CAST gamma-ray calorimeter

We present the results of a search for a high-energy axion emission signal from 7Li (0.478 MeV) and D(p,gamma)3He (5.5 MeV) nuclear transitions using a low-background gamma-ray calorimeter during Phase I of the CAST experiment. These so-called "hadronic axions" could provide a solution to the long-standing strong-CP problem and can be emitted from the solar core from nuclear M1 transitions. This is the first such search for high-energy pseudoscalar bosons with couplings to nucleons conducted using a helioscope approach. No excess signal above background was found.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, final version to be published in JCA