Mixing patterns and the spread of close-contact infectious diseases

Surprisingly little is known regarding the human mixing patterns relevant to the spread of close-contact infections, such as measles, influenza and meningococcal disease. This study aims to estimate the number of partnerships that individuals make, their stability and the degree to which mixing is assortative with respect to age. We defined four levels of putative at-risk events from casual (physical contact without conversation) to intimate (contact of a sexual nature), and asked university student volunteers to record details on those they contacted at these levels on three separate days. We found that intimate contacts are stable over short time periods whereas there was no evidence of repeat casual contacts with the same individuals. The contacts were increasingly assortative as intimacy increased. Such information will aid the development and parameterisation of models of close contact diseases, and may have direct use in outbreak investigations

Elevated hemostasis markers after pneumonia increases one-year risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths

Background: Acceleration of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, may increase long-term mortality after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but underlying mechanisms are unknown. Persistence of the prothrombotic state that occurs during an acute infection may increase risk of subsequent atherothrombosis in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease and increase subsequent risk of death. We hypothesized that circulating hemostasis markers activated during CAP persist at hospital discharge, when patients appear to have recovered clinically, and are associated with higher mortality, particularly due to cardiovascular causes. Methods: In a cohort of survivors of CAP hospitalization from 28 US sites, we measured D-Dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complexes [TAT], Factor IX, antithrombin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 at hospital discharge, and determined 1-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results: Of 893 subjects, most did not have severe pneumonia (70.6% never developed severe sepsis) and only 13.4% required intensive care unit admission. At discharge, 88.4% of subjects had normal vital signs and appeared to have clinically recovered. D-dimer and TAT levels were elevated at discharge in 78.8% and 30.1% of all subjects, and in 51.3% and 25.3% of those without severe sepsis. Higher D-dimer and TAT levels were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (range of hazard ratios were 1.66-1.17, p = 0.0001 and 1.46-1.04, p = 0.001 after adjusting for demographics and comorbid illnesses) and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.009 and 0.003 in competing risk analyses). Conclusions: Elevations of TAT and D-dimer levels are common at hospital discharge in patients who appeared to have recovered clinically from pneumonia and are associated with higher risk of subsequent deaths, particularly due to cardiovascular disease. © 2011 Yende et al

Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from mathematical modelling.

Accepted versio

Prospecting environmental mycobacteria: combined molecular approaches reveal unprecedented diversity

Background: Environmental mycobacteria (EM) include species commonly found in various terrestrial and aquatic environments, encompassing animal and human pathogens in addition to saprophytes. Approximately 150 EM species can be separated into fast and slow growers based on sequence and copy number differences of their 16S rRNA genes. Cultivation methods are not appropriate for diversity studies; few studies have investigated EM diversity in soil despite their importance as potential reservoirs of pathogens and their hypothesized role in masking or blocking M. bovis BCG vaccine. Methods: We report here the development, optimization and validation of molecular assays targeting the 16S rRNA gene to assess diversity and prevalence of fast and slow growing EM in representative soils from semi tropical and temperate areas. New primer sets were designed also to target uniquely slow growing mycobacteria and used with PCR-DGGE, tag-encoded Titanium amplicon pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR. Results: PCR-DGGE and pyrosequencing provided a consensus of EM diversity; for example, a high abundance of pyrosequencing reads and DGGE bands corresponded to M. moriokaense, M. colombiense and M. riyadhense. As expected pyrosequencing provided more comprehensive information; additional prevalent species included M. chlorophenolicum, M. neglectum, M. gordonae, M. aemonae. Prevalence of the total Mycobacterium genus in the soil samples ranged from 2.3×107 to 2.7×108 gene targets g−1; slow growers prevalence from 2.9×105 to 1.2×107 cells g−1. Conclusions: This combined molecular approach enabled an unprecedented qualitative and quantitative assessment of EM across soil samples. Good concordance was found between methods and the bioinformatics analysis was validated by random resampling. Sequences from most pathogenic groups associated with slow growth were identified in extenso in all soils tested with a specific assay, allowing to unmask them from the Mycobacterium whole genus, in which, as minority members, they would have remained undetected

Efficacy of essential oil mouthwash with and without alcohol: a 3-Day plaque accumulation model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to evaluate the antiplaque effect of a new alcohol free essential oil mouthwash with respect to a control of an essential oil with alcohol mouthwash, using an <it>in vivo </it>plaque regrowth model of 3-days.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was designed as a double-masked, randomized, crossover clinical trial, involving 30 volunteers to compare two different essential oil containing mouthwashes, during a 3-day plaque accumulation model. After receiving a thorough professional prophylaxis at the baseline, over the next 3-days each volunteer refrained from all oral hygiene measures and had two daily rinses with 20 ml of the test mouthwash (alcohol free essential oil) or the control mouthwash (essential oil with alcohol). At the end of the each experimental period, plaque was assessed and the panelists filled out a questionnaire. Each subject underwent a 14 days washout period and there was a second allocation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The essential oil mouthwash with ethanol shows a better inhibitory effect of plaque regrowth in 3-days than the mouthwash test with only essential oil in the whole mouth (plaque index = 2.18 against 2.46, respectively, p < 0.05); for the lower jaw (plaque index = 2.28 against 2.57, respectively, p < 0.05); for the upper jaw (plaque index = 2.08 against 2.35, respectively, p < 0.05); for the incisors (plaque index = 1.93 against 2.27, respectively, p < 0.05); and the canines (plaque index = 1.99 against 2.47, respectively, p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The essential oil containing mouthwash without alcohol seems to have a less inhibiting effect on the plaque regrowth than the traditional alcoholic solution.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01411618">NCT01411618</a></p

Evidence for waning of latency in a cohort study of tuberculosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To investigate how the risk of active tuberculosis disease is influenced by time since original infection and to determine whether the risk of reactivation of tuberculosis increases or decreases with age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cohort analysis of data for the separate ten year birth cohorts of 1876-1885 to 1959-1968 obtained from Statistics Norway and the National Tuberculosis Registry. These data were used to calculate the rates and the changes in the rates of bacillary (or active) tuberculosis. Data on bacillary tuberculosis for adult (20+) age groups were obtained from the National Tuberculosis Registry and Statistics Norway from 1946 to 1974. Most cases during this period arose due to reactivation of remote infection. Participants in this part of the analysis were all reported active tuberculosis cases in Norway from 1946 to 1974 as recorded in the National Tuberculosis Registry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Tuberculosis decreased at a relatively steady rate when following individual birth cohorts, but with a tendency of slower decline as time passed since infection. A mean estimate of this rate of decline was 57% in a 10 year period.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The risk of reactivation of latent tuberculosis decreases with age. This decline may reflect the rate at which latent tuberculosis is eliminated from a population with minimal transmission of tubercle bacilli. A model for risk of developing active tuberculosis as a function of time since infection shows that the rate at which tuberculosis can be eliminated from a society can be quite substantial if new infections are effectively prevented. The findings clearly indicate that preventative measures against transmission of tuberculosis will be the most effective. These results also suggest that the total population harbouring live tubercle bacilli and consequently the future projection for increased incidence of tuberculosis in the world is probably overestimated.</p

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and renal functions in children with a solitary kidney

The aim of this study is to investigate the blood pressure (BP) profile, microalbuminuria, renal functions, and relations with remaining normal kidney size in children with unilateral functioning solitary kidney (UFSK). Sixty-six children with UFSK were equally divided into three groups: unilateral renal agenesis (URA), unilateral atrophic kidney (UAK), and unilateral nephrectomy (UNP). Twenty-two age-, weight-, and height-matched healthy children were considered as a control group. The serum creatinine level and first-morning urine microalbumin and creatinine concentrations were determined by the standard methods. Also, the BP profile was determined by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). We found that the serum creatinine level was higher and creatinine clearance was lower in each patient groups compared to those of the control group (p < 0.05). Compared with the controls, each group of patients had mean office, 24-h, daytime, and night-time systolic and diastolic BP values similar to those of the controls (p > 0.05). An inverse correlation was found between the renal size standard deviation scores (SDS) of normal kidneys and 24-h systolic and diastolic BP load SDS in all of the patients (p < 0.05; r = −0.372, r = −0.295, respectively). The observed relationship between renal size SDS and 24-h mean arterial pressure (MAP), systolic and diastolic BP load SDS suggests that children with UFSK should be evaluated by using ABPM for the risk of hypertension

Immunogenicity Is Not Improved by Increased Antigen Dose or Booster Dosing of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in a Randomized Trial of HIV Infected Adults

The risk of poor vaccine immunogenicity and more severe influenza disease in HIV necessitate strategies to improve vaccine efficacy.A randomized, multi-centered, controlled, vaccine trial with three parallel groups was conducted at 12 CIHR Canadian HIV Trials Network sites. Three dosing strategies were used in HIV infected adults (18 to 60 years): two standard doses over 28 days, two double doses over 28 days and a single standard dose of influenza vaccine, administered prior to the 2008 influenza season. A trivalent killed split non-adjuvanted influenza vaccine (Fluviral™) was used. Serum hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) activity for the three influenza strains in the vaccine was measured to assess immunogenicity.297 of 298 participants received at least one injection. Baseline CD4 (median 470 cells/µL) and HIV RNA (76% of patients with viral load <50 copies/mL) were similar between groups. 89% were on HAART. The overall immunogenicity of influenza vaccine across time points and the three influenza strains assessed was poor (Range HAI ≥ 40 =  31-58%). Double dose plus double dose booster slightly increased the proportion achieving HAI titre doubling from baseline for A/Brisbane and B/Florida at weeks 4, 8 and 20 compared to standard vaccine dose. Increased immunogenicity with increased antigen dose and booster dosing was most apparent in participants with unsuppressed HIV RNA at baseline. None of 8 serious adverse events were thought to be immunization-related.Even with increased antigen dose and booster dosing, non-adjuvanted influenza vaccine immunogenicity is poor in HIV infected individuals. Alternative influenza vaccines are required in this hyporesponsive population.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00764998

The impact of trans-catheter aortic valve replacement induced leftbundle branch block on cardiac reverse remodeling

Background Left bundle branch block (LBBB) is common following trans-catheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and has been linked to increased mortality, although whether this is related to less favourable cardiac reverse remodeling is unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of TAVR induced LBBB on cardiac reverse remodeling. Methods 48 patients undergoing TAVR for severe aortic stenosis were evaluated. 24 patients with new LBBB (LBBB-T) following TAVR were matched with 24 patients with a narrow post-procedure QRS (nQRS). Patients underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) prior to and 6 m post-TAVR. Measured cardiac reverse remodeling parameters included left ventricular (LV) size, ejection fraction (LVEF) and global longitudinal strain (GLS). Inter- and intra-ventricular dyssynchrony were determined using time to peak radial strain derived from CMR Feature Tracking. Results In the LBBB-T group there was an increase in QRS duration from 96 ± 14 to 151 ± 12 ms (P < 0.001) leading to inter- and intra-ventricular dyssynchrony (inter: LBBB-T 130 ± 73 vs nQRS 23 ± 86 ms, p < 0.001; intra: LBBB-T 118 ± 103 vs. nQRS 13 ± 106 ms, p = 0.001). Change in indexed LV end-systolic volume (LVESVi), LVEF and GLS was significantly different between the two groups (LVESVi: nQRS -7.9 ± 14.0 vs. LBBB-T -0.6 ± 10.2 ml/m2, p = 0.02, LVEF: nQRS +4.6 ± 7.8 vs LBBB-T -2.1 ± 6.9%, p = 0.002; GLS: nQRS -2.1 ± 3.6 vs. LBBB-T +0.2 ± 3.2%, p = 0.024). There was a significant correlation between change in QRS and change in LVEF (r = -0.434, p = 0.002) and between change in QRS and change in GLS (r = 0.462, p = 0.001). Post-procedure QRS duration was an independent predictor of change in LVEF and GLS at 6 months. Conclusion TAVR-induced LBBB is associated with less favourable cardiac reverse remodeling at medium term follow up. In view of this, every effort should be made to prevent TAVR-induced LBBB, especially as TAVR is now being extended to a younger, lower risk population

Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.</p