Climate Interactive: The C-Roads Climate Policy Model

In 1992 the nations of the world created the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to negotiate binding agreements to address the risks of climate change. Nearly every nation on Earth committed to limiting global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system,” [superscript 1] which is generally accepted to mean limiting the increase in mean global surface temperature to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.[superscript 2] High hopes were dashed at the 2009 Copenhagen climateconference when face-to-face negotiations among heads of state collapsed. Instead, nations were encouraged to make voluntary pledges to reduce their emissions. Those pledges currently fall significantly short of what is needed (UNEP, 2010) while GHG emissions have risen to record levels despite the great recession that began in 2008

The razor and the laser

The Razor says: do not multiply entities without necessity! The Laser says: do not multiply fundamental entities without necessity! Behind the Laser lies a deep insight. This is a distinction between the costs and the commitments of a theory. According to the Razor, every commitment is a cost. Not so according to the Laser. According to the Laser, derivative entities are an ontological free lunch: that is, they are a commitment without a cost. Jonathan Schaffer (2015) has argued that the Laser should replace the Razor. In Sections 2-4 we shall discuss and argue against Schaffer’s arguments for replacing the Razor with the Laser. Schaffer considers several objections to his views, and in Sections 5-7 we shall argue that Schaffer does not deal successfully with two of them. In Section 8 we shall present a probabilistic argument for the Laser. However, the argument has a limitation and does not support the replacement of the Razor with the Laser. Indeed, it supports only the claim that, given certain assumptions, the multiplication of explanatorily relevant derivative entities does not matter; but, as we argue in the same section, there is an argument that multiplying explanatorily superfluous derivative entities does makes a theory less rationally acceptable. Our conclusion is that the Laser cannot replace the Razor and that derivative entities are not an ontological free lunch

Improving performance and fostering accountability in the public sector through system dynamics modelling: From an 'external' to an 'internal' perspective

This paper aims to outline the benefits justifying a tailored approach to System Dynamics (SD) modelling in the public sector, to improve performance and foster decision makers' accountability. The need of combining an 'internal' with an 'external' perspective (in respect to decisionmakers) in developing SDmodels is claimed. Different levels of intervention (i.e. macro, micro and meso) are discussed. Two case studies are analysed. The first one demonstrates how a dynamic resource-based view (DRBV) can support an analysis of the impact of back and front office units on a public sector organization's performance drivers. The second case shows how SD modelling based on a DRBV can also be applied to improve performance on a political level. Copyright \ua9 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Conferred resistance to Botrytis cinerea in Lilium by overexpression of the RCH10 chitinase gene

The production of ornamentals is an important global industry, with Lilium being one of the six major bulb crops in the world. The international trade in ornamentals is in the order of £60-75 billion and is expected to increase worldwide by 2-4 % per annum. The continued success of the floriculture industry depends on the introduction of new species/cultivars with major alterations in key agronomic characteristics, such as resistance to pathogens. Fungal diseases are the cause of reduced yields and marketable quality of cultivated plants, including ornamental species. The fungal pathogen Botrytis causes extreme economic losses to a wide range of crop species, including ornamentals such as Lilium. Agrobacterium-mediated transformation was used to develop Lilium oriental cv. ‘Star Gazer’ plants that ectopically overexpress the Rice Chitinase 10 gene (RCH10), under control of the CaMV35S promoter. Levels of conferred resistance linked to chitinase expression were evaluated by infection with Botrytis cinerea; sporulation was reduced in an in vitro assay and the relative expression of the RCH10 gene was determined by quantitative Reverse-Transcriptase PCR. The extent of resistance to Botrytis, compared to that of the wild type plants, showed a direct correlation with the level of chitinase gene expression. Transgenic plants grown to flowering showed no detrimental phenotypic effects associated with transgene expression. This is the first report of Lilium plants with resistance to Botrytis cinerea generated by a transgenic approach

Immunisation of chickens with inactivated and/or infectious H9N2 avian influenza virus leads to differential immune B-cell repertoire development

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major economic burden to the poultry industry and pose serious zoonotic risks, with human infections being reported every year. To date, the vaccination of birds remains the most important method for the prevention and control of AIV outbreaks. Most national vaccination strategies against AIV infection use whole virus-inactivated vaccines, which predominantly trigger a systemic antibody-mediated immune response. There are currently no studies that have examined the antibody repertoire of birds that were infected with and/or vaccinated against AIV. To this end, we evaluate the changes in the H9N2-specific IgM and IgY repertoires in chickens subjected to vaccination(s) and/or infectious challenge. We show that a large proportion of the IgM and IgY clones were shared across multiple individuals, and these public clonal responses are dependent on both the immunisation status of the birds and the specific tissue that was examined. Furthermore, the analysis revealed specific clonal expansions that are restricted to particular H9N2 immunisation regimes. These results indicate that both the nature and number of immunisations are important drivers of the antibody responses and repertoire profiles in chickens following H9N2 antigenic stimulation. We discuss how the repertoire biology of avian B-cell responses may affect the success of AIV vaccination in chickens, in particular the implications of public versus private clonal selection

Incidence and characterization of polyglucosan bodies in the cerebella of montserrat orioles (Icterus oberi)

Polyglucosan bodies are accumulations of insoluble glucose polymers and proteins that form intracytoplasmic inclusions in the brain, large numbers of which can be indicative of neurodegenerative diseases such as Lafora disease. Montserrat orioles (Icterus oberi) are an icterid passerine endemic to Montserrat with conservation populations maintained in captivity abroad. We demonstrate that polyglucosan bodies are unusually abundant in the cerebellar molecular and Purkinje cell layers and cerebellar peduncles of captive-bred and wild-caught Montserrat orioles. The bodies are periodic acid-Schiff positive and diastase resistant and label with concanavalin A and for ubiquitin, consistent with those seen in humans. We found no association of the polyglucosan bodies with concurrent neurological lesions or clinical signs, nor with EPM2A and EPM2B gene mutations associated with Lafora disease. We conclude that an abundance of cerebellar polyglucosan bodies may be a normal finding in aged Montserrat orioles and not a threat to the captive breeding population

Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations

a b s t r a c t Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the nations of the world have pledged to limit warming to no more than 2 C above preindustrial levels. However, negotiators and policymakers lack the capability to assess the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction proposals offered by the parties on warming and the climate. The climate is a complex dynamical system driven by multiple feedback processes, accumulations, time delays and nonlinearities, but research shows poor understanding of these processes is widespread, even among highly educated people with strong technical backgrounds. Existing climate models are opaque to policymakers and too slow to be effective either in the fast-paced context of policy making or as learning environments to help improve people's understanding of climate dynamics. Here we describe C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support), a transparent, intuitive policy simulation model that provides policymakers, negotiators, educators, businesses, the media, and the public with the ability to explore, for themselves, the likely consequences of GHG emissions policies. The model runs on an ordinary laptop in seconds, offers an intuitive interface and has been carefully grounded in the best available science. We describe the need for such tools, the structure of the model, and calibration to climate data and state of the art general circulation models. We also describe how C-ROADS is being used by officials and policymakers in key UNFCCC parties, including the United States, China and the United Nations

A pangenome graph reference of 30 chicken genomes allows genotyping of large and complex structural variants

Background The red junglefowl, the wild outgroup of domestic chickens, has historically served as a reference for genomic studies of domestic chickens. These studies have provided insight into the etiology of traits of commercial importance. However, the use of a single reference genome does not capture diversity present among modern breeds, many of which have accumulated molecular changes due to drift and selection. While reference-based resequencing is well-suited to cataloging simple variants such as single-nucleotide changes and short insertions and deletions, it is mostly inadequate to discover more complex structural variation in the genome. Methods We present a pangenome for the domestic chicken consisting of thirty assemblies of chickens from different breeds and research lines. Results We demonstrate how this pangenome can be used to catalog structural variants present in modern breeds and untangle complex nested variation. We show that alignment of short reads from 100 diverse wild and domestic chickens to this pangenome reduces reference bias by 38%, which affects downstream genotyping results. This approach also allows for the accurate genotyping of a large and complex pair of structural variants at the K feathering locus using short reads, which would not be possible using a linear reference. Conclusions We expect that this new paradigm of genomic reference will allow better pinpointing of exact mutations responsible for specific phenotypes, which will in turn be necessary for breeding chickens that meet new sustainability criteria and are resilient to quickly evolving pathogen threats

Evidence of pathogen-induced immunogenetic selection across the large geographic range of a wild seabird

Over evolutionary time,pathogen challenge shapes theimmunephenotype of the host tobetterrespondtoanincipient threat. The extent and direction of this selection pressure depend on the local pathogen composition, which is in turn determined by biotic and abiotic features of the environment. However, little is known about adaptation to local pathogen threats in wild animals. The Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) is a species complex that lends itself to the study of immune adaptation becauseof its circumpolardistributionover a large latitudinal range, with littleornoadmixturebetweendifferent clades. Inthis study,we examine thediversity ina key family of innateimmunegenes-theToll-like receptors (TLRs)-across the range of the Gentoo penguin. The three TLRs that we investigated present varying levels of diversity, with TLR4 and TLR5 greatly exceeding the diversity of TLR7.We present evidence of positive selection in TLR4 and TLR5,which points to pathogen-driven adaptation to the local pathogen milieu. Finally, we demonstrate that two positively selected cosegregating sites in TLR5 are sufficient to alter the responsiveness of the receptor to its bacterial ligand, flagellin. Taken together, these results suggest that Gentoo penguins have experienced distinct pathogen-driven selection pressures in different environments, which may be important given the role of the Gentoo penguin as a sentinel species in some of the world's most rapidly changing environments.Fil: Levy, Hila. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Fiddaman, Steven R.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Vianna, Juliana A.. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Chile. Universidad Católica de Chile; ChileFil: Noll, Daly. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Chile. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Clucas, Gemma V.. Cornell University; Estados UnidosFil: Sidhu, Jasmine K.H.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Polito, Michael J.. Louisiana State University; Estados UnidosFil: Bost, Charles A.. Centre D'etudes Biologiques de Chizé; FranciaFil: Phillips, Richard A.. British Antarctic Survey; Reino UnidoFil: Crofts, Sarah. Falklands Conservation; Reino UnidoFil: Miller, Gary D.. University of Western Australia; AustraliaFil: Pistorius, Pierre. Nelson Mandela University; SudáfricaFil: Bonnadonna, Francesco. Université de Montpellier; FranciaFil: Le Bohec, Celine. Université de Strasbourg; FranciaFil: Barbosa, Andres. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales; EspañaFil: Trathan, Phil. British Antarctic Survey; Reino UnidoFil: Raya Rey, Andrea Nélida. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; ArgentinaFil: Frantz, Laurent A.F.. University of London; Reino UnidoFil: Hart, Tom. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Smith, Adrian L.. University of Oxford; Reino Unid