The Razor and the Laser

The Razor says: do not multiply entities without necessity! The Laser says: do not multiply fundamental entities without necessity! Behind the Laser lies a deep insight. This is a distinction between the costs and the commitments of a theory. According to the Razor, every commitment is a cost. Not so according to the Laser. According to the Laser, derivative entities are an ontological free lunch: that is, they are a commitment without a cost. Jonathan Schaffer (2015) has argued that the Laser should replace the Razor. In Sections 2-4 we shall discuss and argue against Schaffer’s arguments for replacing the Razor with the Laser. Schaffer considers several objections to his views, and in Sections 5-7 we shall argue that Schaffer does not deal successfully with two of them. In Section 8 we shall present a probabilistic argument for the Laser. However, the argument has a limitation and does not support the replacement of the Razor with the Laser. Indeed, it supports only the claim that, given certain assumptions, the multiplication of explanatorily relevant derivative entities does not matter; but, as we argue in the same section, there is an argument that multiplying explanatorily superfluous derivative entities does makes a theory less rationally acceptable. Our conclusion is that the Laser cannot replace the Razor and that derivative entities are not an ontological free lunch

Climate Interactive: The C-Roads Climate Policy Model

In 1992 the nations of the world created the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to negotiate binding agreements to address the risks of climate change. Nearly every nation on Earth committed to limiting global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system,” [superscript 1] which is generally accepted to mean limiting the increase in mean global surface temperature to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.[superscript 2] High hopes were dashed at the 2009 Copenhagen climateconference when face-to-face negotiations among heads of state collapsed. Instead, nations were encouraged to make voluntary pledges to reduce their emissions. Those pledges currently fall significantly short of what is needed (UNEP, 2010) while GHG emissions have risen to record levels despite the great recession that began in 2008

Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations

a b s t r a c t Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the nations of the world have pledged to limit warming to no more than 2 C above preindustrial levels. However, negotiators and policymakers lack the capability to assess the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction proposals offered by the parties on warming and the climate. The climate is a complex dynamical system driven by multiple feedback processes, accumulations, time delays and nonlinearities, but research shows poor understanding of these processes is widespread, even among highly educated people with strong technical backgrounds. Existing climate models are opaque to policymakers and too slow to be effective either in the fast-paced context of policy making or as learning environments to help improve people's understanding of climate dynamics. Here we describe C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support), a transparent, intuitive policy simulation model that provides policymakers, negotiators, educators, businesses, the media, and the public with the ability to explore, for themselves, the likely consequences of GHG emissions policies. The model runs on an ordinary laptop in seconds, offers an intuitive interface and has been carefully grounded in the best available science. We describe the need for such tools, the structure of the model, and calibration to climate data and state of the art general circulation models. We also describe how C-ROADS is being used by officials and policymakers in key UNFCCC parties, including the United States, China and the United Nations

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds

Understanding the evolution of immune genes in jawed vertebrates

Driven by co-evolution with pathogens, host immunity continuously adapts to optimize defence against pathogens within a given environment. Recent advances in genetics, genomics and transcriptomics have enabled a more detailed investigation into how immunogenetic variation shapes the diversity of immune responses seen across domestic and wild animal species. However, a deeper understanding of the diverse molecular mechanisms that shape immunity within and among species is still needed to gain insight into-and generate evolutionary hypotheses on-the ultimate drivers of immunological differences. Here, we discuss current advances in our understanding of molecular evolution underpinning jawed vertebrate immunity. First, we introduce the immunome concept, a framework for characterizing genes involved in immune defence from a comparative perspective, then we outline how immune genes of interest can be identified. Second, we focus on how different selection modes are observed acting across groups of immune genes and propose hypotheses to explain these differences. We then provide an overview of the approaches used so far to study the evolutionary heterogeneity of immune genes on macro and microevolutionary scales. Finally, we discuss some of the current evidence as to how specific pathogens affect the evolution of different groups of immune genes. This review results from the collective discussion on the current key challenges in evolutionary immunology conducted at the ESEB 2021 Online Satellite Symposium: Molecular evolution of the vertebrate immune system, from the lab to natural populations

Improving performance and fostering accountability in the public sector through system dynamics modelling: From an 'external' to an 'internal' perspective

This paper aims to outline the benefits justifying a tailored approach to System Dynamics (SD) modelling in the public sector, to improve performance and foster decision makers' accountability. The need of combining an 'internal' with an 'external' perspective (in respect to decisionmakers) in developing SDmodels is claimed. Different levels of intervention (i.e. macro, micro and meso) are discussed. Two case studies are analysed. The first one demonstrates how a dynamic resource-based view (DRBV) can support an analysis of the impact of back and front office units on a public sector organization's performance drivers. The second case shows how SD modelling based on a DRBV can also be applied to improve performance on a political level. Copyright \ua9 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Receding ice drove parallel expansions in Southern Ocean penguins

International audienceClimate shifts are key drivers of ecosystem change. Despite the critical importance of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean for global climate, the extent of climate-driven ecological change in this region remains controversial. In particular, the biological effects of changing sea ice conditions are poorly understood. We hypothesize that rapid postglacial reductions in sea ice drove biological shifts across multiple widespread Southern Ocean species. We test for demographic shifts driven by climate events over recent millennia by analyzing population genomic datasets spanning 3 penguin genera ( Eudyptes , Pygoscelis , and Aptenodytes ). Demographic analyses for multiple species (macaroni/royal, eastern rockhopper, Adélie, gentoo, king, and emperor) currently inhabiting southern coastlines affected by heavy sea ice conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) yielded genetic signatures of near-simultaneous population expansions associated with postglacial warming. Populations of the ice-adapted emperor penguin are inferred to have expanded slightly earlier than those of species requiring ice-free terrain. These concerted high-latitude expansion events contrast with relatively stable or declining demographic histories inferred for 4 penguin species (northern rockhopper, western rockhopper, Fiordland crested, and Snares crested) that apparently persisted throughout the LGM in ice-free habitats. Limited genetic structure detected in all ice-affected species across the vast Southern Ocean may reflect both rapid postglacial colonization of subantarctic and Antarctic shores, in addition to recent genetic exchange among populations. Together, these analyses highlight dramatic, ecosystem-wide responses to past Southern Ocean climate change and suggest potential for further shifts as warming continues

High-coverage genomes to elucidate the evolution of penguins

Background: Penguins (Sphenisciformes) are a remarkable order of flightless wing-propelled diving seabirds distributed widely across the southern hemisphere. They share a volant common ancestor with Procellariiformes close to the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (66 million years ago) and subsequently lost the ability to fly but enhanced their diving capabilities. With ∼20 species among 6 genera, penguins range from the tropical Galápagos Islands to the oceanic temperate forests of New Zealand, the rocky coastlines of the sub-Antarctic islands, and the sea ice around Antarctica. To inhabit such diverse and extreme environments, penguins evolved many physiological and morphological adaptations. However, they are also highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, penguins provide an exciting target system for understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation, adaptation, and demography. Genomic data are an emerging resource for addressing questions about such processes. Results: Here we present a novel dataset of 19 high-coverage genomes that, together with 2 previously published genomes, encompass all extant penguin species. We also present a well-supported phylogeny to clarify the relationships among penguins. In contrast to recent studies, our results demonstrate that the genus Aptenodytes is basal and sister to all other extant penguin genera, providing intriguing new insights into the adaptation of penguins to Antarctica. As such, our dataset provides a novel resource for understanding the evolutionary history of penguins as a clade, as well as the fine-scale relationships of individual penguin lineages. Against this background, we introduce a major consortium of international scientists dedicated to studying these genomes. Moreover, we highlight emerging issues regarding ensuring legal and respectful indigenous consultation, particularly for genomic data originating from New Zealand Taonga species. Conclusions: We believe that our dataset and project will be important for understanding evolution, increasing cultural heritage and guiding the conservation of this iconic southern hemisphere species assemblage.Fil: Pan, Hailin. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Cole, Theresa L. University Of Otago; CanadáFil: Bi, Xupeng. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Fang, Miaoquan. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Zhou, Chengran. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Yang, Zhengtao. Bgi-shenzhen; ChinaFil: Ksepka, Daniel T. Bruce Museum; Estados UnidosFil: Hart, Tom. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Bouzat, Juan L.. Bowling Green State University; Estados UnidosFil: Boersma, P. Dee. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Bost, Charles-André. Centre Detudes Biologiques de Chizé; FranciaFil: Cherel, Yves. Centre Detudes Biologiques de Chizé; FranciaFil: Dann, Peter. Phillip Island Nature Parks; AustraliaFil: Mattern, Thomas. University of Otago; Nueva ZelandaFil: Ellenberg, Ursula. Global Penguin Society; Estados Unidos. La Trobe University; AustraliaFil: Garcia Borboroglu, Jorge Pablo. University of Washington; Estados Unidos. Global Penguin Society; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Argilla, Lisa S.. Otago Polytechnic; Nueva ZelandaFil: Bertelsen, Mads F.. Copenhagen Zoo; Dinamarca. University of Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Fiddaman, Steven R.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Howard, Pauline. Hornby Veterinary Centre; Nueva Zelanda. South Island Wildlife Hospital; Nueva ZelandaFil: Labuschagne, Kim. National Zoological Garden; SudáfricaFil: Miller, Gary. University of Western Australia; Australia. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Parker, Patricia. University of Missouri St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Phillips, Richard A.. Natural Environment Research Council; Reino UnidoFil: Quillfeldt, Petra. Justus-Liebig-Universit ̈ at Giessen; AlemaniaFil: Ryan, Peter G.. University of Cape Town; SudáfricaFil: Taylor, Helen. Vet Services Hawkes Bay Ltd; Nueva Zelanda. Wairoa Farm Vets; Nueva ZelandaFil: Zhang, De-Xing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Zhang, Guojie. BGI-Shenzhen; China. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China. University of Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: McKinlay, Bruce. Department of Conservation; Nueva Zeland