Survival signature-based sensitivity analysis of systems with epistemic uncertainties

The survival signature provides a basis for efficient reliability assessment of systems with more than one component type. Often a perfect probabilistic modelling of the system is not possible due to limited information, vagueness and imprecision. Hence generalized probabilistic methods need to be used. These methods allow to explicitly model the uncertainties without the need of unjustified hypotheses and approximation. In this paper, a novel and efficient sensitivity approach is presented. The proposed approach is based on survival signature, allowing to identify and rank components in a system. A numerical example is used to illustrate the above methods

What is the evidence for giving chemoprophylaxis to children or students attending the same preschool, school or college as a case of meningococcal disease?

We performed a systematic literature review to assess the effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis for contacts of sporadic cases of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in educational settings. No studies directly compared IMD risk in contacts with/without chemoprophylaxis. However, compared to the background incidence, an elevated IMD risk was identified in settings without a general recommendation for chemoprophylaxis in pre-schools [pooled risk difference (RD) 58·2/10⁵, 95% confidence interval (CI) 27·3-89·0] and primary schools (pooled RD 4·9/10⁵, 95% CI 2·9-6·9) in the ~30 days after contact with a sporadic IMD case, but not in other educational settings. Thus, limited but consistent evidence suggests the risk of IMD in pre-school contacts of sporadic IMD cases is significantly increased above the background risk, but lower than in household contacts (pooled RD for household contacts with no chemoprophylaxis vs. background incidence: 480·1/10⁵, 95% CI 321·5-639·9). We recommend chemoprophylaxis for pre-school contacts depending on an assessment of duration and closeness of contact

Investor heterogeneity and the cross-section of U.K. investment trust performance

We use the upper and lower bounds derived by Ferson and Lin (2010) to examine the impact of investor heterogeneity on the performance of U.K. investment trusts relative to alternative linear factor models. We find using the upper bounds that investor heterogeneity has an important impact for nearly all investment trusts. The upper bounds are large in economic terms and significantly different from zero. We find no evidence of any trusts where all investors agree on the sign of performance beyond what we expect by chance. Using the lower bound, we find that trusts with a larger disagreement about trust performance have a weaker relation between the trust premium and past Net Asset Value (NAV) performance

Unilateral thoracoscopic surgical approach for diffuse emphysema

AbstractWe evaluated the use of a lateral thoracoscopic approach for lung reduction surgery in patients with diffuse emphysema. Sixty-seven patients with a mean age of 61.9 years underwent operation. Operative side was determined by preoperative imaging. The procedures were laser ablation in 10 patients and stapler resection in 57 patients. Ten patients, including six of the 10 patients in the laser-only group had poor outcome (death or hospitalization longer than 30 days), leading us to abandon the laser technique. Of the remaining 57 patients undergoing primary stapled resection, duration of chest tube placement averaged 13 days (range 3 to 53 days) with a mean hospital stay of 17 days (range 6 to 99 days). Seven patients required ventilation for longer than 72 hours, six patients underwent conversion of the procedure to open thoracotomy, four patients acquired arrhythmias, and three patients were treated for empyema. There was one early death (1.7%), from cardiopulmonary failure. Forty patients returned for 3-month evaluation. Significant ( p < 0.0001) improvements were seen in forced vital capacity (2.69 L after vs 2.26 L before) and forced expiration volume in 1 second (1.04 L after vs 0.82 L before), with 25 of 40 patients (63%) showing an improvement of more than 20%. Lung volume measures, in particular residual volume, fell significantly. Arterial blood gas analysis revealed that carbon dioxide tension fell significantly in patients with preoperative hypercapnia (carbon dioxide tension >45 mm Hg, p = 0.018). Six-minute walk test results improved (894 feet after vs 784 feet before, p = 0.002), and symptomatic benefit was confirmed by significant improvement in the dyspnea index. The combination of both hypercapnia and reduced single-breath diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide was significantly more frequent ( p = 0.0026) and was 86% specific (5 of 6 patients) in predicting serious postoperative risk. We conclude that the lateral thoracoscopic surgical approach to diffuse emphysema offers significant improvement in pulmonary mechanics and functional impairment. Patients with a combination of hypercapnia and reduced single-breath diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide should not be considered for this procedure because of significant perioperative risk. (J THORAC CARDIOVASC SURG 1996;111:308-16

Estimation of the Optimal Statistical Quality Control Sampling Time Intervals Using a Residual Risk Measure

Background: An open problem in clinical chemistry is the estimation of the optimal sampling time intervals for the application of statistical quality control (QC) procedures that are based on the measurement of control materials. This is a probabilistic risk assessment problem that requires reliability analysis of the analytical system, and the estimation of the risk caused by the measurement error. Methodology/Principal Findings: Assuming that the states of the analytical system are the reliability state, the maintenance state, the critical-failure modes and their combinations, we can define risk functions based on the mean time of the states, their measurement error and the medically acceptable measurement error. Consequently, a residual risk measure rr can be defined for each sampling time interval. The rr depends on the state probability vectors of the analytical system, the state transition probability matrices before and after each application of the QC procedure and the state mean time matrices. As optimal sampling time intervals can be defined those minimizing a QC related cost measure while the rr is acceptable. I developed an algorithm that estimates the rr for any QC sampling time interval of a QC procedure applied to analytical systems with an arbitrary number of critical-failure modes, assuming any failure time and measurement error probability density function for each mode. Furthermore, given the acceptable rr, it can estimate the optimal QC sampling time intervals

Older people's family relationships in disequilibrium during the COVID-19 pandemic. What really matters?

Abstract Inter- and intragenerational relationships are known to be important in maintaining the wellbeing of older people. A key aspect of these relationships is the exchange of both emotional and instrumental social support. However, relatively little is known about how this exchange of support changes in the context of widespread disruption. The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to examine how older people's family relationships are impacted by such social change. The present qualitative study explores how older people in the United Kingdom experienced changes in inter- and intragenerational support during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants (N = 33) were recruited through a large-scale nationally representative survey (https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/psychology-consortium-covid19). We asked how life had been pre-pandemic, how they experienced the first national lockdown and what the future might hold in store. The data were analysed using constructivist grounded theory. This paper focuses on the importance of family relationships and how they changed as a consequence of the pandemic. We found that the family support system had been interrupted, that there were changes in the methods of support and that feelings of belonging were challenged. We argue that families were brought into disequilibrium through changes in the exchange of inter- and intragenerational support. The important role of grandchildren for older adults was striking and challenged by the pandemic. The significance of social connectedness and support within the family had not changed during the pandemic, but it could no longer be lived in the same way. The desire to be close to family members and to support them conflicted with the risk of pandemic infection. Our study found support for the COVID-19 Social Connectivity Paradox: the need for social connectedness whilst maintaining social distance. This challenged family equilibrium, wellbeing and quality of life in older people.</jats:p