What is the evidence for giving chemoprophylaxis to children or students attending the same preschool, school or college as a case of meningococcal disease?

We performed a systematic literature review to assess the effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis for contacts of sporadic cases of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in educational settings. No studies directly compared IMD risk in contacts with/without chemoprophylaxis. However, compared to the background incidence, an elevated IMD risk was identified in settings without a general recommendation for chemoprophylaxis in pre-schools [pooled risk difference (RD) 58·2/10⁵, 95% confidence interval (CI) 27·3-89·0] and primary schools (pooled RD 4·9/10⁵, 95% CI 2·9-6·9) in the ~30 days after contact with a sporadic IMD case, but not in other educational settings. Thus, limited but consistent evidence suggests the risk of IMD in pre-school contacts of sporadic IMD cases is significantly increased above the background risk, but lower than in household contacts (pooled RD for household contacts with no chemoprophylaxis vs. background incidence: 480·1/10⁵, 95% CI 321·5-639·9). We recommend chemoprophylaxis for pre-school contacts depending on an assessment of duration and closeness of contact

Investor heterogeneity and the cross-section of U.K. investment trust performance

We use the upper and lower bounds derived by Ferson and Lin (2010) to examine the impact of investor heterogeneity on the performance of U.K. investment trusts relative to alternative linear factor models. We find using the upper bounds that investor heterogeneity has an important impact for nearly all investment trusts. The upper bounds are large in economic terms and significantly different from zero. We find no evidence of any trusts where all investors agree on the sign of performance beyond what we expect by chance. Using the lower bound, we find that trusts with a larger disagreement about trust performance have a weaker relation between the trust premium and past Net Asset Value (NAV) performance

By hook or by crook? Morphometry, competition and cooperation in rodent sperm

Background Sperm design varies enormously across species and sperm competition is thought to be a major factor influencing this variation. However, the functional significance of many sperm traits is still poorly understood. The sperm of most murid rodents are characterised by an apical hook of the sperm head that varies markedly in extent across species. In the European woodmouse Apodemus sylvaticus (Muridae), the highly reflected apical hook of sperm is used to form sperm groups, or “trains,” which exhibited increased swimming velocity and thrusting force compared to individual sperm. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we use a comparative study of murine rodent sperm and demonstrate that the apical hook and sperm cooperation are likely to be general adaptations to sperm competition in rodents. We found that species with relatively larger testes, and therefore more intense sperm competition, have a longer, more reflected apical sperm hook. In addition, we show that sperm groups also occur in rodents other than the European woodmouse. Conclusions Our results suggest that in rodents sperm cooperation is more widespread than assumed so far and highlight the importance of diploid versus haploid selection in the evolution of sperm design and function

Survival signature-based sensitivity analysis of systems with epistemic uncertainties

The survival signature provides a basis for efficient reliability assessment of systems with more than one component type. Often a perfect probabilistic modelling of the system is not possible due to limited information, vagueness and imprecision. Hence generalized probabilistic methods need to be used. These methods allow to explicitly model the uncertainties without the need of unjustified hypotheses and approximation. In this paper, a novel and efficient sensitivity approach is presented. The proposed approach is based on survival signature, allowing to identify and rank components in a system. A numerical example is used to illustrate the above methods

Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Models

A popular explanation of aggregate stock market behavior suggests that assets are priced as if there were a representative investor whose utility is a power function of the difference between aggregate consumption and a “habit” level, where the habit is some function of lagged and (possibly) contemporaneous consumption. But theory does not provide precise guidelines about the parametric functional relationship between the habit and aggregate consumption. This makes for- mal estimation and testing challenging; at the same time, it raises an empirical question about the functional form of the habit that best explains asset pricing data. This paper studies the ability of a general class of habit-based asset pricing models to match the conditional moment restrictions implied by asset pricing theory. Our approach is to treat the functional form of the habit as unknown, and to estimate it along with the rest of the model’s finite dimensional parameters. This semiparametric approach allows us to empirically evaluate a number of interesting hypotheses about the specification of habit-based asset pricing models. Using stationary quarterly data on consumption growth, assets returns and instruments, our empirical results indicate that the estimated habit function is nonlinear, the habit formation is internal, and the estimated time-preference parameter and the power utility parameter are sensible. In addition, our estimated habit function generates a positive stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxy and performs well in explaining cross-sectional stock return data. We find that an internal habit SDF proxy can explain a cross-section of size and book-market sorted portfolio equity returns better than (i) the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, (ii) the Lettau and Ludvigson (2001b) scaled consumption CAPM model, (iii) an external habit SDF proxy, (iv) the classic CAPM, and (v) the classic consumption CAPM

Option Pricing Kernels and the ICAPM

We estimate the parameters of pricing kernels that depend on both aggregate wealth and state variables that describe the investment opportunity set, using FTSE 100 and S&P 500 index option returns as the returns to be priced. The coefficients of the state variables are highly significant and remarkably consistent across specifications of the pricing kernel, and across the two markets. The results provide further evidence that, consistent with Merton's (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, state variables in addition to market risk are priced

Criticality Analysis of Activity Networks under Interval Uncertainty

Dedicated to the memory of Professor Stefan Chanas - The extended abstract version of this paper has appeared in Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming (CP2005) ("Interval Analysis in Scheduling", Fortin et al. 2005)International audienceThis paper reconsiders the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) scheduling problem when information about task duration is incomplete. We model uncertainty on task durations by intervals. With this problem formulation, our goal is to assert possible and necessary criticality of the different tasks and to compute their possible earliest starting dates, latest starting dates, and floats. This paper combines various results and provides a complete solution to the problem. We present the complexity results of all considered subproblems and efficient algorithms to solve them

Stock price reaction to profit warnings: The role of time-varying betas

This study investigates the role of time-varying betas, event-induced variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in the estimation of abnormal returns around important news announcements. Our analysis is based on the stock price reaction to profit warnings issued by a sample of firms listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The standard event study methodology indicates the presence of price reversal patterns following both positive and negative warnings. However, incorporating time-varying betas, event-induced variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in the modelling process results in post-negative-warning price patterns that are consistent with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis. These adjustments also cause the statistical significance of some post-positive-warning cumulative abnormal returns to disappear and their magnitude to drop to an extent that minor transaction costs would eliminate the profitability of the contrarian strategy