Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño river in the city of Ourense, Spain

[Abstract:] River floods, which are one of the most dangerous natural hazards worldwide, have increased in intensity and frequency in recent decades as a result of climate change, and the future scenario is expected to be even worse. Therefore, their knowledge, predictability, and mitigation represent a key challenge for the scientific community in the coming decades, especially in those local areas that are most vulnerable to these extreme events. In this sense, a multiscale analysis is essential to obtain detailed maps of the future evolution of floods. In the multiscale analysis, the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) project are used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) which, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+). This integration allows knowing the projected future changes in the flow pattern of the river, as well as analyzing the impact of floods in vulnerable areas through the flood hazard maps obtained with hydraulic simulations. The multiscale analysis is applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to the city of Ourense. The results show a delay in the flood season and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme river flows in the Miño-Sil basin, which will cause more situations of flooding in many areas frequented by pedestrians and in important infrastructure of the city of Ourense. In addition, an increase in water depths associated with future floods was also detected, confirming the trend for future floods to be not only more frequent but also more intense. Detailed maps of the future evolution of floods also provide key information to decision-makers to take effective measures in advance in those areas most vulnerable to flooding in the coming decades. Although the methodology presented is applied to a particular area, its strength lies in the fact that its implementation in other basins and cities is simple, also taking into account that all the models used are freely accessible.Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2021/44FEDER; 0034_RISC_ML_6_EXunta de Galicia; ED481B-2021-10

Comparison of machine learning techniques for reservoir outflow forecasting

Número especial: Advances in machine learning for natural hazards risk assessment[Abstract:] Reservoirs play a key role in many human societies due to their capability to manage water resources. In addition to their role in water supply and hydropower production, their ability to retain water and control the flow makes them a valuable asset for flood mitigation. This is a key function, since extreme events have increased in the last few decades as a result of climate change, and therefore, the application of mechanisms capable of mitigating flood damage will be key in the coming decades. Having a good estimation of the outflow of a reservoir can be an advantage for water management or early warning systems. When historical data are available, data-driven models have been proven a useful tool for different hydrological applications. In this sense, this study analyzes the efficiency of different machine learning techniques to predict reservoir outflow, namely multivariate linear regression (MLR) and three artificial neural networks: multilayer perceptron (MLP), nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) and long short-term memory (LSTM). These techniques were applied to forecast the outflow of eight water reservoirs of different characteristics located in the Miño River (northwest of Spain). In general, the results obtained showed that the proposed models provided a good estimation of the outflow of the reservoirs, improving the results obtained with classical approaches such as to consider reservoir outflow equal to that of the previous day. Among the different machine learning techniques analyzed, the NARX approach was the option that provided the best estimations on average.FEDER; 0034_RISC_ML_6_EXunta de Galicia; ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia; ED481B-2021-108Universidade de Vigo; 0000 131H TAL 64

O cambio climático

Os cambios no clima sucedéronse ao longo da historia do noso planeta debido a mecanismos naturais. Sen embargo, o cambio climático actual ten a singularidade de estar tamén afectado polo ser humano. Este efecto antropoxénico potencia o quecemento global, incrementando a velocidade dos cambios e limitando a capacidade de adaptación das especies ás novas condicións. Así, incluso variacións pequenas, como décimas de grao na temperatura, poden ser desfavorables para moitas especies, levando á extinción dalgunhas delas. O coñecemento dos cambios climáticos, tanto os pasados coma o actual, permite desenvolver ferramentas de mitigación e adaptación para enfrontarse aos cambios futuros do mellor xeito posible

Analysis of two sources of variability of basin outflow hydrographs computed with the 2D shallow water model Iber: Digital Terrain Model and unstructured mesh size

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade da Coruña/CISUG[Abstract:] Modelling hydrological processes with fully distributed models based on the shallow water equations implies a high computational cost, which often limits the resolution of the computational mesh. Therefore, in practice, modellers need to find a compromise between spatial resolution, numerical accuracy and computational cost. Moreover, this balance is probably related to the accuracy and resolution of the underlying Digital Terrain Model (DTM). In this work, it is studied the effect of the DTM resolution and the size of the computational mesh on the results and on the runtime of a hydrological model based on the 2D shallow water equations. Seven rainfall events in four different basins have been modelled using 3 DTMs and 3 different mesh resolutions. The results obtained highlight the relevance of the vertical accuracy versus the horizontal resolution of the DTMs. Furthermore, it has been observed that mesh resolutions greater than 25 m, together with LiDAR-based DTMs with horizontal resolution greater than 25 m, provide comparable outflow hydrographs.Xunta de Galicia; ED481B-2021-108Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2018/56Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER); 0034_RISC_ML_6_

Numerical simulation of the deadliest flood event of Portugal: Unravelling the causes of the disaster

The flood event of November 25 and 26, 1967 corresponds to the deadliest storm affecting Portugal in recent centuries being responsible for >500 fatalities. The main trigger was the heavy rain that fell in just a few hours, provoking a rapid increase in river flows, although other concurrent circumstances had to occur to reach the dramatic water levels estimated in some affected places. However, even today, several important uncertainties related to water levels achieved and timing of floods remain. Here we aim to clarify some of the pending issues by applying suitable high performance numerical tools to elucidate the main conditioning factors that played a key role in the intensification of this dramatic flood. In particular, the analysis has been focused on Quintas village, the location most affected, where >100 fatalities were recorded, close to 2/3 of its total population at the time. The main conclusion provided by the numerical simulations was that a plugging of water flow downstream of Quintas village, favoured by a poor terrain maintenance coupled with the bottleneck created by topographic features, caused the critical over-elevation of water levels. Simulations also corroborate the rapid increase in water levels in Quintas village, with an estimated rise of >2 m in just two hours, as well as the occurrence of the flood during the night, preventing many people to be aware of the extreme danger they were facing and safeguarding themselves.Universidade de Vigo/CISU

The Rivillas flood of 5–6 November 1997 (Badajoz, Spain) revisited: an approach based on Iber+ modelling

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUGThe flash flood registered in November 1997 in the city of Badajoz (Spain) in the basin of Rivillas river is analysed by means of the numerical code Iber+. This event constitutes one of the most destructive flash-floods registered in an urban area in the Iberian Peninsula. Starting from precipitation data obtained from rain stations, the runoff of the entire river basin was simulated to obtain the discharge of the Rivillas river in Badajoz. The flood maps obtained with Iber+ reproduce accurately the field data registered during the actual event. Likewise, the numerical time evolution of the flood and water depths are in accordance with testimonies of the witnesses. Once the capability of Iber+ to reproduce the event was assessed, several scenarios were considered in order to analyse the main causes of the event. In particular, simulations show that the catastrophic magnitude of the flood was mainly due to the blockage of bridges. Different hypothetical scenarios were simulated to analyze the role of rain intensity and bridge maintenance, concluding that similar floods can occur under much lower rainfall but with poor bridge maintenance.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2021-10

Methionine adenosyltransferase 1a antisense oligonucleotides activate the liver-brown adipose tissue axis preventing obesity and associated hepatosteatosis

Altered methionine metabolism is associated with weight gain in obesity. The methionine adenosyltransferase (MAT), catalyzing the first reaction of the methionine cycle, plays an important role regulating lipid metabolism. However, its role in obesity, when a plethora of metabolic diseases occurs, is still unknown. By using antisense oligonucleotides (ASO) and genetic depletion of Mat1a, here, we demonstrate that Mat1a deficiency in diet-induce obese or genetically obese mice prevented and reversed obesity and obesity-associated insulin resistance and hepatosteatosis by increasing energy expenditure in a hepatocyte FGF21 dependent fashion. The increased NRF2-mediated FGF21 secretion induced by targeting Mat1a, mobilized plasma lipids towards the BAT to be catabolized, induced thermogenesis and reduced body weight, inhibiting hepatic de novo lipogenesis. The beneficial effects of Mat1a ASO were abolished following FGF21 depletion in hepatocytes. Thus, targeting Mat1a activates the liver-BAT axis by increasing NRF2-mediated FGF21 secretion, which prevents obesity, insulin resistance and hepatosteatosis. High methionine and S-adenosylmethionine serum levels are related with obesity. Here the authors show that knockdown of methionine adenosyltransferase by using antisense oligonucleotides provides beneficial effects in obesity and comorbidities.This work was supported by Ayudas para apoyar grupos de investigacion del sistema Universitario Vasco (IT971-16) and MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE (RTI2018-095134-B-100) (to P.A.), (RTI2018-099413-B-I00 and RED2018-102379-T) (to R.N.), PID2020119486RB-100 (to M.V.R.) and (RTI2018-096759-A-100) (to T.C.D). EFSD/Lilly European Diabetes Research Program, MICIU (PID2019-104399RB-I00), Fundacion AECC PROYE19047SABI, and Comunidad de Madrid IMMUNOTHERCAN-CM B2017/BMD-3733 (to G.S.). La CAIXA Foundation LCF/PR/HP17/52190004, MINECO-FEDER SAF2017-87301-R, AYUDAS FUNDACION BBVA A EQUIPOS DE INVESTIGACION CIENTIFICA UMBRELLA 2018 and AECC Scientific Foundation, grant name: Rare Cancers 2017 (to M.L.M.-C.). AECC Scientific Foundation (to T.C.D.). Xunta de Galicia 2020-PG015 (to R.N.) Gilead Sciences International Research Scholars Program in Liver Disease (to M.V.R.). Personal fellows: E.P.F. was awarded with Juan de la Cierva-Formacion, FJC2018-035449-I. C.F. was awarded with Sara Borrell (CD19/00078). CIC bioGUNE thanks MCIU for the Severo Ochoa Excellence Accreditation (SEV-2016-0644). The authors thank Dr. Manuel Lafitas laboratory (Getxo, Bizkaia, Spain) for his valuable help in the analysis of biochemical parameters

Enfermedades crónicas

Adherencia al tratamiento farmacológico y relación con el control metabólico en pacientes con DM2Aluminio en pacientes con terapia de reemplazo renal crónico con hemodiálisis en Bogotá, ColombiaAmputación de extremidades inferiores: ¿están aumentando las tasas?Consumo de edulcorantes artificiales en jóvenes universitariosCómo crecen niños normales de 2 años que son sobrepeso a los 7 añosDiagnóstico con enfoque territorial de salud cardiovascular en la Región MetropolitanaEfecto a corto plazo de una intervención con ejercicio físico, en niños con sobrepesoEfectos de la cirugía bariátrica en pacientes con síndrome metabólico e IMC < 35 KG/M2Encuesta mundial de tabaquismo en estudiantes de profesiones de saludEnfermedades crónicas no transmisibles: Consecuencias sociales-sanitarias de comunidades rurales en ChileEpidemiología de las muertes hospitalarias por patologías relacionadas a muerte encefálica, Chile 2003-2007Estado nutricional y conductas alimentarias en adolescentes de 4º medio de la Región de CoquimboEstudio de calidad de vida en una muestra del plan piloto para hepatitis CEvaluación del proceso asistencial y de resultados de salud del GES de diabetes mellitus 2Factores de riesgo cardiovascular en población universitaria de la Facsal, universidad de TarapacáImplicancias psicosociales en la génesis, evolución y tratamiento de pacientes con hipertensión arterial esencialInfarto agudo al miocardio (IAM): Realidad en el Hospital de Puerto Natales, 2009-2010Introducción de nuevas TIC y mejoría de la asistencia a un programa de saludNiños obesos atendidos en el Cesfam de Puerto Natales y su entorno familiarPerfil de la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en Río de JaneiroPerfil del paciente primo-consultante del Programa de Salud Cardiovascular, Consultorio Cordillera Andina, Los AndesPrevalencia de automedicación en mujeres beneficiarias del Hospital Comunitario de Til-TiPrevalencia de caries en población preescolar y su relación con malnutrición por excesoPrevalencia de retinopatía diabética en comunas dependientes del Servicio de Salud Metropolitano Occidente (SSMOC)Problemas de adherencia farmacológica antihipertensiva en población mapuche: Un estudio cualitativoRol biológico de los antioxidantes innatos en pacientes portadores de VIH/SidaSobrepeso en empleados de un restaurante de una universidad pública del estado de São Paul

Whole genome sequencing of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus; Pleuronectiformes):a fish adapted to demersal life

12 páginas, 5 figuras.-- Antonio Figueras ... et al.-- This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly citedThe turbot is a flatfish (Pleuronectiformes) with increasing commercial value, which has prompted active genomic research aimed at more efficient selection. Here we present the sequence and annotation of the turbot genome, which represents a milestone for both boosting breeding programmes and ascertaining the origin and diversification of flatfish. We compare the turbot genome with model fish genomes to investigate teleost chromosome evolution. We observe a conserved macrosyntenic pattern within Percomorpha and identify large syntenic blocks within the turbot genome related to the teleost genome duplication. We identify gene family expansions and positive selection of genes associated with vision and metabolism of membrane lipids, which suggests adaptation to demersal lifestyle and to cold temperatures, respectively. Our data indicate a quick evolution and diversification of flatfish to adapt to benthic life and provide clues for understanding their controversial origin. Moreover, we investigate the genomic architecture of growth, sex determination and disease resistance, key traits for understanding local adaptation and boosting turbot production, by mapping candidate genes and previously reported quantitative trait loci. The genomic architecture of these productive traits has allowed the identification of candidate genes and enriched pathways that may represent useful information for future marker-assisted selection in turbotThis work was funded by the Spanish Government: projects Consolider Ingenio: Aquagenomics (CSD2007-00002) and Metagenoma de la Península Ibérica (CSD2007-00005), Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and European Regional Development Funds (AGL2012-35904), and Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (AGL2014-51773 and AGL2014-57065-R); and Local Government Xunta de Galicia (GRC2014/010). P.P. and D.R. gratefully acknowledge the Spanish Ministerio de Educación for their FPU fellowships (AP2010-2408, AP2012-0254). Funding to pay the Open Access publication charges for this article was provided by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (AGL2014-51773) and Xunta de Galicia (GRC2014/010)Peer reviewe

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years