Epidemiological determinants and magnitude of calf morbidity and mortality in Bahir Dar milk-shed, north west Ethiopia

Herd level cross-sectional and calf level longitudinal observational study was conducted between November 2014 to April 2015 in peri-urban and urban dairy farms of Bahir Dar milk-shed, Ethiopia. The aims of this study were therefore, to determine the incidence rate of calf morbidity and mortality, investigating potential determinant factors of calf morbidity and mortality and to determine the passive transfer of immunity in some selected dairy calves. Both concurrent and prospective cohorts were employed to recruit calves aged below 6 month in the study herds. A total of 440 calves, a random sample of 322 calves from small-holder and 118 from five large dairy farms located in Bahir Dar milkshed were included in the study. Each study calf was individually ear -tagged and regularly monitored in monthly basis for clinical health problems up to an age of six months. Information on different potential risk factors was collected by using herd and calf level recording sheets and personal observations. Serum samples were taken from some study calves to determine their level of passive transfer and it was conducted in Bahir Dar Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Laboratory. The overall incidences of crude morbidity and crude mortality rates found in this study were 47.3% and 17.9%, respectively. Calf diarrhea, pneumonia, navel ill, septicemic conditions, Lumpy Skin Disease, rabies, congenital problems and other miscellaneous cases were encountered during this study. The most frequent disease condition was calf diarrhea with the incidence rate of 25.2% followed by pneumonia (8.6 %). The incidence of crude mortality was apparently higher in large sized dairy farms than smallholder farms. However, calf diarrhea and crude morbidity rates were higher in the latter. About six, 6, 4 and 2 explanatory variables were found significantly associated with crude mortality, crude morbidity, diarrhea and pneumonia respectively by multivariate Cox - regression at P<0.05. Older calves above three months age were at lower risk (HR=0.03, P=0.000) of mortality than younger calves of below three month. The relative hazard (HR=0.15, P=0.000) of mortality in good vigored calves was lower than that of calves with poor vigor at birth. Those calves fed complete colostrum were found at lower risk (HR=4.64, P=0.000) of mortality than those fed partial colostrum. Birth type (twin vs. single), method of colostrum feeding and farming system were also the other risk factors determining calf mortality. Likewise, older calves were found at lower risk of crude morbidity (H=0.45, P=0.000) than younger calves. The hazard of morbidity in those good vigored calves at birth was lower (HR=0.26, P=0.000) than calves with history of poor vigor. Furthermore, dam age, dam birth related disorders and study location were also found additional risk factors of crude calf morbidity. The relative hazard of diarrhea in crossbred calves (HR=2.63, P=0.016) was higher than that of local counter parts. Those good vigored calves at birth were also found at lower risk (HR=0.24, P=0.000) of diarrhea than that of poor vigored counter parts. Furthermore, calf age and study location were found to be additional risk factors of calf diarrhea. Those calves with previous treatment history were at greater risk (HR=0.076, P=0.000) for pneumonia than calves which did not receive any previous medical treatment. Moreover, vigor status at birth (HR=0.24, P=0.000) was found significantly associated with calf pneumonia. Out of 46 calves examined by Zinc sulfate (ZnSo4.7H20) turbidity test, about 8.7% of them were found with no detectable colostral Ig (FPT), the remaining 34.8% and 56.5% were found with adequate and partial protection levels, respectively. Generally, 65.2% of calves were found immunologically unprotected in the study herds. In conclusion, the incidence of calf morbidity and mortality found in this study were high and above economically tolerable level. This record therefore, could affect the productivity of the dairy farms through mainly decreasing the availability of replacement stock. Among the significant risk factors investigated, calf vigor, age, breed, dam age and amount of colostrum ingestion were found very important determinant factors of calf mortality and morbidity under the context of small-holder farming system in Bahir Dar milk-shed. A sound dairy calf management practice, is therefore needs understanding and manipulating of the above mentioned calf health determinant factors with subsequent application of tailor-made interventions

Study on the prevalence of bovine fasciolosis in and around Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

A cross sectional study aimed at determining the prevalence and type of common Fasciola species in cattle was conducted in and around Bahir Dar from November 2008- March 2009. The study was based on post-mortem inspection of livers of slaughtered animals at Bahir Dar municipality abattoir and coprological examination using sedimentation technique on fecal samples collected from animals of Bahir Dar and surrounding areas. Out of 413 livers inspected, 165 (39.95%) were positive for Fasciola species. F. hepatica was found to be the most prevalent species in cattle of the study area (89.70%). About 3.63% were positive for F. gigantica and 6.67% were harboring mixed infections. Likewise, out of 384 fecal samples examined 141 (36.72) were positive for the presence of Fasciola eggs. Risk factors such as locality, body condition and sex didn’t show any effect on the prevalence of infections (P&gt;0.05). However, breed and age group revealed significant disparity (P&lt;0.05) as greater magnitude of infections were detected in exotic breed and young age group, respectively. In view of the current result, fasciolosis could be considered as a major problem in Bahir Dar and surrounding areas as the ecological factors and management conditions are suitable both for the snail intermediate host and the parasite to be maintained. Strategic treatments need to be implemented at appropriate timing with the aim of reducing worm burden from infected animals and preclude pasture contamination. Integrated control approaches involving livestock owners has to be implemented in reducing the population and activity of snail intermediate hosts to enable maximization of long-term returns from such endemic areas.Key words: Abattoir, Bovine, Bahir Dar, Coprology, Fasciola, Prevalence

Study on the seroprevalence of small ruminant brucellosis in and around Bahir Dar, North West Ethiopia

A cross sectional study was carried out from October 2008 to April 2009 to determine the sero-prevalence of brucellosis in small ruminants in and around Bahir Dar, northwest Ethiopia. The sampling method used was purposive sampling technique for districts and simple random for the study animals. A total of 500 serum samples (270 from sheep and 230 from goats) were collected from extensive management system with no history of vaccination. All serum samples were initially screened by Rose-Bengal-Plate Test (RBPT) and positive reactors to RBPT (n=6) were further tested by complement fixation test (CFT) for confirmation. Accordingly, the overall prevalence of brucellosis in small ruminants was 0.4 % (2/500). Rose Bengal Plate Test detected 6 (1.2%) of the samples as seropositive. Up on further testing by CFT only 2 (0.4%) were positive which were adult goats. The seroprevalence of brucellosis was found higher in females (0.4%) than males (0%). Although seropositive animals are low in number, it was found out that animals more than 1 year of age were more affected than others. The result of the present study revealed that the seroprevalence of small ruminant brucellosis in the study area was very low. However, the existence of the disease in the study area has possible risk of spread in the future. Accordingly, elimination of positive seroreactors has been recommended to control the spread of brucellosis in these species of animals

Technology generation to dissemination:lessons learned from the tef improvement project

Indigenous crops also known as orphan crops are key contributors to food security, which is becoming increasingly vulnerable with the current trend of population growth and climate change. They have the major advantage that they fit well into the general socio-economic and ecological context of developing world agriculture. However, most indigenous crops did not benefit from the Green Revolution, which dramatically increased the yield of major crops such as wheat and rice. Here, we describe the Tef Improvement Project, which employs both conventional- and molecular-breeding techniques to improve tef\u2014an orphan crop important to the food security in the Horn of Africa, a region of the world with recurring devastating famines. We have established an efficient pipeline to bring improved tef lines from the laboratory to the farmers of Ethiopia. Of critical importance to the long-term success of this project is the cooperation among participants in Ethiopia and Switzerland, including donors, policy makers, research institutions, and farmers. Together, European and African scientists have developed a pipeline using breeding and genomic tools to improve the orphan crop tef and bring new cultivars to the farmers in Ethiopia. We highlight a new variety, Tesfa, developed in this pipeline and possessing a novel and desirable combination of traits. Tesfa\u2019s recent approval for release illustrates the success of the project and marks a milestone as it is the first variety (of many in the pipeline) to be released

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. // Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. // Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. // Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defi ned criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specifi c DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defi ned criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specifi c DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI)