A Fuzzy Random Walk Technique to Forecasting Volatility of Iran Stock Exchange Index

Study of volatility has been considered by the academics and decision makers dur-ing two last decades. First since the volatility has been a risk criterion it has been used by many decision makers and activists in capital market. Over the years it has been of more importance because of the effect of volatility on economy and capital markets stability for stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange markets. This research first deals with the evaluation of 8 various models to forecasting volatility of stock index using daily data of Tehran stock exchange. The used models include simple ones such as random walk as well as more complex models like Arch and Garch group. Forecasting volatility index method is developed in this paper. This method is based a random walk using a fuzzy logic approach. This method is used to fore-casting volatility of Iran stock exchange index. The proposed method is assessed by comparing other methods such as Moving Average, Random walk… Results show that our proposed method is compatible with existent methods

Effects of dietary Thymus Vulgaris essential oil on the liver in mice

Introduction: Thymus vulgaris (thyme) is commonly used in folk medicine for several therapeutic purposes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of peritoneal injection of essential oil of thymus vulgaris on the liver as an organ involved in metabolism. It also examines toxic effects following a high dose of the drug. Methods and Results: Twenty-four mice were divided randomly into three groups. Group 1 was the control group without treatment, group 2 has received a dose of thyme essential oil, 0.4 mg/kg intraperitonealy for 10 days and group 3 has received a dose of thyme essential oil, 0.6 mg/kg intraperitonealy for 10 days. A score of liver damage severity was semi-quantitatively assessed using the modified Histological Activity Index ‘(modified HAI). Statistical analysis was performed by using computer program SPSS (19). The results showed the statistically significant increase (P≤ 0.05) in the histopathological scoring in Group2 when compared with Group1. Conclusions: The histopathological examination of control group reveals normal hepatic tissue, no portal or periportal inflammation, necrosis, congestion, Infiltration of WBC and fibrosis. While there was a significant loss in hepatic architecture in Group 2 which showed portal inflammation with periportal interface hepatitis (piecemeal necrosis) centrilobular necrosis, congestion, infiltration of WBC and bridging necrosis. The results were revealed statistically significant increase (P≤ 0.05) in the histopathological scoring in Group3 when compared with Group2. The histopathological examination of thyme treated group (Gp3) showed significant toxic effects with moderate acute inflammation of mononuclear cells. It has been determined that Thymus vulgaris (thyme) leads to histological damage including portal inflammation with centrilobular necrosis. The histological alterations may occur through oxidative properties

Neuroprotective Effect of Chalcone on P53, Caspase III Expression and D2-Like Dopaminergic Receptor Up-Regulation in In-vitro Parkinson's Model

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder of the central nervous system (CNS). Several studies indicated abnormal cell death in neurodegenerative diseases. Chalcone is a compound of natural origin with various properties such as antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and inhibition of apoptosis. We investigated the impact of chalcone in an in-vitro model of PD. Materials and Methods: PC12 cells were divided into four groups. Negative control, 6-hydroxy dopamine (6-OHDA) group (treatment with 75µM 6-OHDA), sham (treated with dimethyl sulfoxide), and the experimental groups with different dosages of chalcone treatment. Cell viability and reactive oxygen species (ROS) were assessed by MTT and ROS kit, respectively. The expressions of D2-like receptors, P53, and caspase III were evaluated by Western blotting. Results: We found that 6-OHDA induced cytotoxicity and ROS production. The viability results showed that all doses of chalcone significantly increased viability after 48 hours compared to the control group (P<0.01). The western blotting results showed that caspase III and P53 expression decreased significantly in the experimental groups compared to the 6-OHDA group. However, D2-like receptor expression did not significantly differ between the experimental and the 6-OHDA group.Conclusion: Complementary therapies, such as the use of antioxidants and the chalcone family, along with standard treatments for neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's, may reduce the symptoms of the disease

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Production of a novel multi-epitope vaccine based on outer membrane proteins of Klebsiella pneumoniae

Klebsiella pneumoniae is a hospital-acquired pathogen that leads to various infections. Hence, efforts to develop an effective vaccine against that pathogen are well documented. Our interest is the production of the previously designed multi-epitope vaccine construct against the K. pneumoniae in a prokaryotic host. Therefore, a new construct containing the nucleotide sequence of the novel vaccine was successfully expressed in Escherichia coli and then purified by Ni-NTA spin column. The purified recombinant protein can be considered as potential vaccine candidate for wet-laboratory analysis aiming to fight K pneumoniae