The effect of competition on the control of invading plant pathogens

1. New invading pathogen strains must compete with endemic pathogen strains to emerge and spread. As disease control measures are often non-specific, i.e. they do not distinguish between strains, applying control not only affects the invading pathogen strain but the endemic as well. We hypothesise that the control of the invasive strain could be compromised due to the non-specific nature of the control. 2. A spatially-explicit model, describing the East African cassava mosaic virus-Uganda strain (EACMV-UG) outbreak, is used to evaluate methods of controlling both disease incidence and spread of invading pathogen strains in pathosystems with and without an endemic pathogen strain present. 3. We find that while many newly introduced or intensified control measures (such as resistant cultivars or roguing) decrease the expected incidence, they have the unintended consequence of increasing, or at least not reducing, the speed with which the invasive pathogen spreads geographically. We identify which controls cause this effect and methods in which these controls may be applied to prevent it. 4. We found that the spatial spread of the invading strain is chiefly governed by the incidence at the wave front. Control can therefore be applied, or intensified, once the wave front has passed without increasing the pathogen’s rate of spread. 5. When trade of planting material occurs, it is possible that the planting material is already infected. The only forms of control in this study that reduces the speed of geographic spread, regardless of the presence of an endemic strain, are those that reduce the amount of trade and the distance over which trade takes place. 6. Synthesis and applications. Imposing trade restrictions before the epidemic has reached a given area and increasing other control methods only once the wave front has passed is the most effective way of both slowing down spread and controlling incidence when the presence of an endemic strain is unknow

Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space

Emerging risks of non-native species escapes from aquaculture: Call for policy improvements in China and other developing countries

Global aquaculture relies heavily on the farming of non-native aquatic species (hereafter, NAS). NAS escapes from aquaculture facilities can result in serious aquatic bio-invasions, which has been an important issue in the FAO Blue Growth Initiative. A regulatory quagmire regarding NAS farming and escapes, however, exists in most developing countries. We discuss aquaculture expansion and NAS escapes, illustrate emerging risks and propose recommendations for improved aquaculture management across developing countries and particularly for China. In China, 68 NAS are known to have successfully established feral populations in natural habitats due to recurrent leakages or escapes; among the 68 NAS, 52 represent risks to native aquatic ecosystems. In addition to affecting a country's own biodiversity and ecosystem functions, NAS escapees can also threaten the biosecurity of shared waters in neighbouring countries. Policy implications. Non-native aquatic species (NAS) escapes have already had adverse ecological effects in China and other developing countries. The importance of this problem, however, is not adequately recognized by current conservation policies in developing countries. To conserve biodiversity and to support the goal of FAO's sustainable aquaculture, developing countries should now take responsible actions to address NAS escapes through policy and management improvements. Specifically, these countries should pass comprehensive legislation, establish effective agencies and national standards and planning and enhance integrated research and education to deal with risk assessment, prevention, monitoring and control of NAS escapes. Given that China is the world's largest aquacultural producer, China can create a model for other developing countries that will increase the biosecurity and sustainability of global aquaculture

Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Tropical forest restoration: Fast resilience of plant biomass contrasts with slow recovery of stable soil C stocks

Due to intensifying human disturbance, over half of the world's tropical forests are reforested or afforested secondary forests or plantations. Understanding the resilience of carbon (C) stocks in these forests, and estimating the extent to which they can provide equivalent carbon (C) sequestration and stabilization to the old growth forest they replace, is critical for the global C balance. In this study, we combined estimates of biomass C stocks with a detailed assessment of soil C pools in bare land, Eucalyptus plantation, secondary forest and natural old-growth forest after over 50 years of forest restoration in a degraded tropical region of South China. We used isotope studies, density fractionation and physical fractionation to determine the age and stability of soil C pools at different soil depths. After 52 years, the secondary forests had equivalent biomass C stocks to natural forest, whereas soil C stocks were still much higher in natural forest (97.42 t/ha) than in secondary forest (58.75 t/ha) or Eucalyptus plantation (38.99 t/ha) and lowest in bare land (19.9 t/ha). Analysis of δ13C values revealed that most of the C in the soil surface horizons in the secondary forest was new C, with a limited increase of more recalcitrant old C, and limited accumulation of C in deeper soil horizons. However, occlusion of C in microaggregates in the surface soil layer was similar across forested sites, which suggests that there is great potential for additional soil C sequestration and stabilization in the secondary forest and Eucalyptus plantation. Collectively, our results demonstrate that reforestation on degraded tropical land can restore biomass C and surface soil C stocks within a few decades, but much longer recovery times are needed to restore recalcitrant C pools and C stocks at depth. Repeated harvesting and disturbance in rotation plantations had a substantial negative impact on the recovery of soil C stocks. We suggest that current calculations of soil C in secondary tropical forests (e.g. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) could overestimate soil C sequestration and stabilization levels in secondary forests and plantations

Modeled spatial assessment of biomass productivity and technical potential of Miscanthus× giganteus, Panicum virgatum L. and Jatropha on marginal land in China

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was supported by Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC). We thank our colleagues from Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences for data collection, and thank Tao Sang from the Institute of Botany of Chinese Academy of Sciences for providing data. The MiscanFor modeling was supported by UK NERC ADVENT (NE/1806209) and FAB-GGR (NE/P019951/1) project funding. John Clifton-Brown received support from the United Kingdom's DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs) as part of the MISCOMAR project (FACCE SURPLUS, Sustainable and Resilient Agriculture for food and non-food systems)Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Cost of the Diet: a method and software to calculate the lowest cost of meeting recommended intakes of energy and nutrients from local foods

Background When food is available, the main obstacle to access is usually economic: people may not be able to afford a nutritious diet, even if they know what foods to eat. The Cost of the Diet method and software was developed to apply linear programming to better understand the extent to which poverty may affect people’s ability to meet their nutritional specifications. This paper describes the principles of the method; the mathematics underlying the linear programming; the parameters and assumptions on which the calculations are based; and then illustrates the output of the software using examples taken from assessments. Results The software contains five databases: the energy and nutrient content of foods; the energy and nutrient specifications of individuals; predefined groups of individuals in typical households; the portion sizes of foods; and currency conversion factors. Data are collected during a market survey to calculate the average cost of foods per 100 g while focus group discussions are used to assess local dietary habits and preferences. These data are presented to a linear programming solver within the software which selects the least expensive combination of local foods for four standard diets that meet specifications for: energy only; energy and macronutrients; energy, macronutrients and micronutrients; and energy, macronutrients and micronutrients but with constraints on the amounts per meal that are consistent with typical dietary habits. Most parameters in the software can be modified by users to examine the potential impact of a wide range of theoretical interventions. The output summarises for each diet the costs, quantity and proportion of energy and nutrient specifications provided by all the foods selected for a given individual or household by day, week, season and year. When the cost is expressed as a percentage of income, the affordability of the diet can be estimated. Conclusions The Cost of the Diet method and software could be used to inform programme design and behaviour change communication in the fields of nutrition, food security, livelihoods and social protection as well as to influence policies and advocacy debates on the financial cost of meeting energy and nutrient specifications

Stay-green in spring wheat can be determined by spectral reflectance measurements (normalized difference vegetation index) independently from phenology

The green area displayed by a crop is a good indicator of its photosynthetic capacity, while chlorophyll retention or ‘stay-green’ is regarded as a key indicator of stress adaptation. Remote-sensing methods were tested to estimate these parameters in diverse wheat genotypes under different growing conditions. Two wheat populations (a diverse set of 294 advanced lines and a recombinant inbred line population of 169 sister lines derived from the cross between Seri and Babax) were grown in Mexico under three environments: drought, heat, and heat combined with drought. In the two populations studied here, a moderate heritable expression of stay-green was found–when the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at physiological maturity was estimated using the regression of NDVI over time from the mid-stages of grain-filling to physiological maturity–and for the rate of senescence during the same period. Under heat and heat combined with drought environments, stay-green calculated as NDVI at physiological maturity and the rate of senescence, showed positive and negative correlations with yield, respectively. Moreover, stay-green calculated as an estimation of NDVI at physiological maturity and the rate of senescence regressed on degree days give an independent measurement of stay-green without the confounding effect of phenology. On average, in both populations under heat and heat combined with drought environments CTgf and stay-green variables accounted for around 30% of yield variability in multiple regression analysis. It is concluded that stay-green traits may provide cumulative effects, together with other traits, to improve adaptation under stress further

CWRML: representing crop wild relative conservation and use data in XML

Background Crop wild relatives are wild species that are closely related to crops. They are valuable as potential gene donors for crop improvement and may help to ensure food security for the future. However, they are becoming increasingly threatened in the wild and are inadequately conserved, both in situ and ex situ. Information about the conservation status and utilisation potential of crop wild relatives is diverse and dispersed, and no single agreed standard exists for representing such information; yet, this information is vital to ensure these species are effectively conserved and utilised. The European Community-funded project, European Crop Wild Relative Diversity Assessment and Conservation Forum, determined the minimum information requirements for the conservation and utilisation of crop wild relatives and created the Crop Wild Relative Information System, incorporating an eXtensible Markup Language (XML) schema to aid data sharing and exchange. Results Crop Wild Relative Markup Language (CWRML) was developed to represent the data necessary for crop wild relative conservation and ensure that they can be effectively utilised for crop improvement. The schema partitions data into taxon-, site-, and population-specific elements, to allow for integration with other more general conservation biology schemata which may emerge as accepted standards in the future. These elements are composed of sub-elements, which are structured in order to facilitate the use of the schema in a variety of crop wild relative conservation and use contexts. Pre-existing standards for data representation in conservation biology were reviewed and incorporated into the schema as restrictions on element data contents, where appropriate. Conclusion CWRML provides a flexible data communication format for representing in situ and ex situ conservation status of individual taxa as well as their utilisation potential. The development of the schema highlights a number of instances where additional standards-development may be valuable, particularly with regard to the representation of population-specific data and utilisation potential. As crop wild relatives are intrinsically no different to other wild plant species there is potential for the inclusion of CWRML data elements in the emerging standards for representation of biodiversity data

When enough should be enough: Improving the use of current agricultural lands could meet production demands and spare natural habitats in Brazil

Providing food and other products to a growing human population while safeguarding natural ecosystems and the provision of their services is a significant scientific, social and political challenge. With food demand likely to double over the next four decades, anthropization is already driving climate change and is the principal force behind species extinction, among other environmental impacts. The sustainable intensification of production on current agricultural lands has been suggested as a key solution to the competition for land between agriculture and natural ecosystems. However, few investigations have shown the extent to which these lands can meet projected demands while considering biophysical constraints. Here we investigate the improved use of existing agricultural lands and present insights into avoiding future competition for land. We focus on Brazil, a country projected to experience the largest increase in agricultural production over the next four decades and the richest nation in terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. Using various models and climatic datasets, we produced the first estimate of the carrying capacity of Brazil's 115 million hectares of cultivated pasturelands. We then investigated if the improved use of cultivated pasturelands would free enough land for the expansion of meat, crops, wood and biofuel, respecting biophysical constraints (i.e., terrain, climate) and including climate change impacts. We found that the current productivity of Brazilian cultivated pasturelands is 32–34% of its potential and that increasing productivity to 49–52% of the potential would suffice to meet demands for meat, crops, wood products and biofuels until at least 2040, without further conversion of natural ecosystems. As a result up to 14.3 Gt CO2 Eq could be mitigated. The fact that the country poised to undergo the largest expansion of agricultural production over the coming decades can do so without further conversion of natural habitats provokes the question whether the same can be true in other regional contexts and, ultimately, at the global scale