ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

Changes in ponderal index and body mass index across childhood and their associations with fat mass and cardiovascular risk factors at age 15

Background: Little is known about whether associations between childhood adiposity and later adverse cardiovascular health outcomes are driven by tracking of overweight from childhood to adulthood and/or by vascular and metabolic changes from childhood overweight that persist into adulthood. Our objective is to characterise associations between trajectories of adiposity across childhood and a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors measured in adolescence, and explore the extent to which these are mediated by fat mass at age 15. Methods and Findings: Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we estimated individual trajectories of ponderal index (PI) from 0-2 years and BMI from 2-10 years using random-effects linear spline models (N = 4601). We explored associations between PI/BMI trajectories and DXA-determined total-body fat-mass and cardiovascular risk factors at 15 years (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting LDL-and HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, glucose, insulin) with and without adjustment for confounders. Changes in PI/BMI during all periods of infancy and childhood were associated with greater DXA-determined fat-mass at age 15. BMI changes in childhood, but not PI changes from 0-2 years, were associated with most cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence; associations tended to be strongest for BMI changes in later childhood (ages 8.5-10), and were largely mediated by fat mass at age 15. Conclusion: Changes in PI/BMI from 0-10 years were associated with greater fat-mass at age 15. Greater increases in BMI from age 8.5-10 years are most strongly associated with cardiovascular risk factors at age 15, with much of these associations mediated by fat-mass at this age. We found little evidence supporting previous reports that rapid PI changes in infancy are associated with future cardiovascular risk. This study suggests that associations between early overweight and subsequent adverse cardiovascular health are largely due to overweight children tending to remain overweight

On the Roles of Wheat Endosperm ADP-Glucose Pyrophosphorylase Subunits

The ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase from wheat endosperm controls starch synthesis in seeds and has unique regulatory properties compared to others from this family. It comprises two types of subunits, but despite its importance little is known about their roles. Here, we synthesized de novo the wheat endosperm ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase small (S) and large (L) subunit genes, heterologously expressed them in Escherichia coli, and kinetically characterized the recombinant proteins. To understand their distinct roles, we co-expressed them with well characterized subunits from the potato tuber enzyme to obtain hybrids with one S subunit from one source and an L subunit from the other. After kinetic analyses of these hybrids, we concluded that the unusual insensitivity to activation of the wheat endosperm enzyme is caused by a pre-activation of the L subunit. In addition, the heat stability and sensitivity to phosphate are given by the S subunit

Randomized Crossover Trial of the Impact of Morning or Evening Dosing of Antihypertensive Agents on 24-Hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure

Some data suggest that nocturnal dosing of antihypertensive agents may reduce cardiovascular outcomes more than daytime dosing. This trial was designed to evaluate whether ambulatory blood pressure monitoring levels differ by timing of drug dosing. Patients aged 18 to 80 years with reasonably controlled hypertension (≤150/≤90 mm Hg) on stable therapy of ≥1 antihypertensive agent were recruited from 2 centers in London and Thessaloniki. Patients were randomized to receive usual therapy either in the morning (6 am–11 am) or evening (6 pm–11 pm) for 12 weeks when participants crossed over to the alternative timing for a further 12 weeks. Clinic blood pressures and a 24-hour recording were taken at baseline, 12, and 24 weeks and routine blood tests were taken at baseline. The study had 80% power to detect 3 mm Hg difference in mean 24-hour systolic blood pressure (α=0.05) by time of dosing. A 2-level hierarchical regression model adjusted for center, period, and sequence was used. Of 103 recruited patients (mean age, 62; 44% female), 95 patients (92%) completed all three 24-hour recordings. Mean 24-hour systolic and diastolic blood pressures did not differ between daytime and evening dosing. Similarly, morning and evening dosing had no differential impact on mean daytime (7 am–10 pm) and nighttime (10 pm–7 am) blood pressure levels nor on clinic levels. Stratification by age (≤65/≥65 years) or sex did not affect results. In summary, among hypertensive patients with reasonably well-controlled blood pressure, the timing of antihypertensive drug administration (morning or evening) did not affect mean 24-hour or clinic blood pressure levels

Model for estimating the population prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: cross sectional data from the Health Survey for England

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major but neglected public health problem. Currently 1.4% of the England population has a clinical diagnosis of COPD, but the true burden of the disease has not been known with certainty, as many cases remain undiagnosed. METHODS: A mathematical model based on cross sectional data from a representative sample of the population in England (the Heath Survey for England 2001, n = 10,750) was developed allowing estimates on the prevalence of COPD (defined based on the presence of airflow obstruction) to be obtained. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate and choose risk factors for inclusion in the model and to derive the prevalence estimates based on the strength of association between selected risk factors and the outcome COPD. The model allows the prevalence to be estimated in populations at national level and also at regional and large local areas, based on their compositions according to age, sex, smoking and ethnicity, and on area degrees of urbanisation and deprivation. We applied the model to measure the prevalence of COPD in England and in some sub-groups of the population within the country. RESULTS: The prevalence of COPD in England is estimated as 3.1% (3.9% in men and 2.4% in women) in the population over 15 years of age, and 5.3% (6.8% in men and 3.9% in women) in 45 year-olds and over. There was a 7-fold variation in the prevalence across subgroups of the population, with lowest values in Asian women from wealthy rural areas (1.7%), and highest in black men from deprived urban areas (12.5%). CONCLUSION: The model can be used to estimate population prevalence of COPD from large general practices to national level, and as a tool to identify areas of high levels of unmet needs for COPD priority health actions. The results from the model highlight the importance of including variables other than age, sex and smoking, i.e. levels of deprivation, urbanisation and ethnicity, when estimating population prevalence of COPD. The model should be validated at local level and incorporated into case-finding strategies

Body shape and size in 6-year old children: assessment by three-dimensional photonic scanning.

BACKGROUND: Body shape and size are typically described using measures such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, which predict disease risks in adults. However, this approach may underestimate the true variability in childhood body shape and size. OBJECTIVE: To use a comprehensive three-dimensional photonic scan approach to describe variation in childhood body shape and size. SUBJECTS/METHODS: At age 6 years, 3350 children from the population-based 2004 Pelotas birth cohort study were assessed by three-dimensional photonic scanner, traditional anthropometry and dual X-ray absorptiometry. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on height and 24 photonic scan variables (circumferences, lengths/widths, volumes and surface areas). RESULTS: PCA identified four independent components of children's body shape and size, which we termed: Corpulence, Central:peripheral ratio, Height and arm lengths, and Shoulder diameter. Corpulence showed strong correlations with traditional anthropometric and body composition measures (r>0.90 with weight, BMI, waist circumference and fat mass; r>0.70 with height, lean mass and bone mass); in contrast, the other three components showed weak or moderate correlations with those measures (all r<0.45). There was no sex difference in Corpulence, but boys had higher Central:peripheral ratio, Height and arm lengths and Shoulder diameter values than girls. Furthermore, children with low birth weight had lower Corpulence and Height and arm lengths but higher Central:peripheral ratio and Shoulder diameter than other children. Children from high socio-economic position (SEP) families had higher Corpulence and Height and arm lengths than other children. Finally, white children had higher Corpulence and Central:peripheral ratio than mixed or black children. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive assessment by three-dimensional photonic scanning identified components of childhood body shape and size not captured by traditional anthropometry or body composition measures. Differences in these novel components by sex, birth weight, SEP and skin colour may indicate their potential relevance to disease risks.This article is based on data from the study ‘Pelotas Birth Cohort, 2004’ conducted by the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology at Federal University of Pelotas, in collaboration with Brazilian Public Health Association (ABRASCO). The 2004 birth cohort study is supported by the Wellcome Trust through the scheme called ‘Major Awards for Latin America on Health Consequences of Population Change’. The World Health Organization, Brazilian National research Council (CNPq) and Brazilian Ministry of Health have supported previous phase of the study. LPS is supported by ‘Science without Borders’ Brazilian scheme under protocol number 201801/2014-0.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2016.3

The RIO trial: rationale, design, and the role of community involvement in a randomised placebo-controlled trial of antiretroviral therapy plus dual long-acting HIV-specific broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) in participants diagnosed with recent HIV infection-study protocol for a two-stage randomised phase II trial

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to dramatic improvements in survival for people living with HIV, but is unable to cure infection, or induce viral control off therapy. Designing intervention trials with novel agents with the potential to confer a period of HIV remission without ART remains a key scientific and community goal. We detail the rationale, design, and outcomes of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of two HIV-specific long-acting broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs): 3BNC117-LS and 10-1074-LS, which target CD4 binding site and V3 loop respectively, on post-treatment viral control. Methods: RIO is a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blinded prospective phase II study. Eligible individuals will have started ART within 3 months of primary HIV infection and have viral sequences that appear to be sensitive to both bNAbs. It will randomise 72 eligible participants 1:1 to the following arms via a two-stage design. In Stage 1, arm A participants are given dual long-acting (LS-variants) bNAbs infusions, followed by intensively monitored Analytical Treatment Interruption (ATI) (n = 36); in arm B, participants receive placebo infusions followed by ATI. The primary endpoint will be time to viral rebound within 36 weeks after ATI. Upon viral rebound, the participant and researcher are unblinded. Participants in arm A recommence ART and complete the study. Participants in arm B are invited to restart ART and enroll into Stage 2 where they will receive open-label LS bNAbs, followed by a second ATI 24 weeks after. Secondary and exploratory endpoints include adverse events, time to undetectable viraemia after restarting ART, immunological markers, HIV proviral DNA, serum bNAb concentrations in blood, bNAb resistance at viral rebound, and quality of life measures. Discussion: The two-stage design was determined in collaboration with community involvement. This design allows all participants the option to receive bNAbs. It also tests the hypothesis that bNAbs may drive sustained HIV control beyond the duration of detectable bNAb concentrations. Community representatives were involved at all stages. This included the two-stage design, discussion on the criteria to restart ART, frequency of monitoring visits off ART, and reducing the risk of onward transmission to HIV-negative partners. It also included responding to the challenges of COVID-19. Trial registration: The protocol is registered on Clinical.trials.gov and EudraCT and has approval from UK Ethics and MHRA

May Measurement Month 2018: a pragmatic global screening campaign to raise awareness of blood pressure by the International Society of Hypertension

Aims Raised blood pressure (BP) is the biggest contributor to mortality and disease burden worldwide and fewer than half of those with hypertension are aware of it. May Measurement Month (MMM) is a global campaign set up in 2017, to raise awareness of high BP and as a pragmatic solution to a lack of formal screening worldwide. The 2018 campaign was expanded, aiming to include more participants and countries. Methods and results Eighty-nine countries participated in MMM 2018. Volunteers (≥18 years) were recruited through opportunistic sampling at a variety of screening sites. Each participant had three BP measurements and completed a questionnaire on demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. Hypertension was defined as a systolic BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg, or taking antihypertensive medication. In total, 74.9% of screenees provided three BP readings. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to impute missing readings. 1 504 963 individuals (mean age 45.3 years; 52.4% female) were screened. After multiple imputation, 502 079 (33.4%) individuals had hypertension, of whom 59.5% were aware of their diagnosis and 55.3% were taking antihypertensive medication. Of those on medication, 60.0% were controlled and of all hypertensives, 33.2% were controlled. We detected 224 285 individuals with untreated hypertension and 111 214 individuals with inadequately treated (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) hypertension. Conclusion May Measurement Month expanded significantly compared with 2017, including more participants in more countries. The campaign identified over 335 000 adults with untreated or inadequately treated hypertension. In the absence of systematic screening programmes, MMM was effective at raising awareness at least among these individuals at risk