Can we afford to live longer in better health?

This document analyses the effects of ageing populations upon public finances. More specifically, it focuses on the implications of ageing for acute health care, long-term care, and public pension expenditure. It does so for 15 EU countries. �It pays particular attention to three novel insights: (i) a large part of health care spending relates to time to death rather than to age: (ii) life expectancy may increase much faster than current demographic projections suggest, and (iii) the average health status may continue to improve in the future. It adopts a generational accounting model that incorporates health care costs during the last years of life, decomposed into an acute health care component and a long-term care component. The projections show that gains in life expectancy increase age-related expenditure; better health has the opposite effect. Combined, these trends reduce health care expenditure and increase pension expenditure. Their joint effect upon public finance is rather modest, however. Hence, the assessment of public finances in most EU15 countries does not change: even if a faster increase in life expectancy should combine with an improvement in health, current fiscal and social security institutions are unsustainable.

Innovation in natural resource management

International agricultural research is expanding beyond the development of annual crop technologies for individual farms to the development of longer-tern natural resource management techniques for entire landscapes. But technologies of practices with a long lag time between investment and returns are unlikely to be adopted by farmers unless they have secure rights to the underlying resources (property rights). Similarly, technologies that span multiple farms are unlikely to be adopted unless neighbors and groups work together (collective action). But little is know about the way property rights and collective action in developing countries mediate the adoption of technologies by farmers and groups. This statement offers suggestions for promoting sustainable natural resource management.

Rare earth elements in Andaman Island surface water : geochemical tracers for the monsoon

The Asian summer monsoon affects the lives of billions of people. With the aim of identifying geochemical tracers for the monsoon related freshwater input from the major rivers draining into the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea we have taken surface seawater samples from various locations up and down the Andaman Islands during 2011. Importantly, in some locations samples have been taken in March, July and November, covering most of a seasonal cycle and different monsoon phases. Samples were collected from the side of small wooden boats or while swimming and were filtered within a few hours at 0.45 or 0.22 microns using the vacuum produced by a water jet or a hand operated peristaltic pump. Filtered and unfiltered samples were acidified to < pH 2 and analysed for Y and the REEs with an automated online preconcentration ICP-MS technique [1]. The local input of REEs from streams and sediment rich areas such as mangrove environments is clearly identified by middle REE enrichments in the shale normalised patterns of some samples. These middle REE bulges accompany large increases in dissolved REE concentrations at some locations, especially for the July samples obtained during the peak monsoon season with frequent storms. Y/Ho fractionation aslo occurs during the local input of dissolved REEs with affected samples having lower Y/Ho ratios. Conversly, some samples, in particular those taken after heavy rainfall in March, show strong REE scavenging accompanied by the prefferential removal of dissolved light REEs and higher Y/Ho ratios. The time series at a location away from local input sources shows remarkably similar REE patterns and concentraions in March and July. Then in October-November, following the peak in monsoon river discharge, the dissolved REE concentration increases by almost a factor of 2. The notable exception to this seasonal pattern is the Ce anomally which is around 0.3 in March and November but 0.6 in July, implying less oxidative removal of Ce(IV) during the peak summer monsoon rains. With the exception of elevated dissolved Ce concentrations, the North Pacific Deep Water normalised REE patterns are similar to those reported for offshore samples from the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea [2]. These seawater normalised patterns are distinctive having a middle REE enriched arc with similar light and heavy REE values suggesting the input from large rivers in the region is traceable using seawater REE chemistry. [1] Hathorne et al. (2012), Online preconcentration ICP-MS analysis of rare earth elements in seawater, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 13, Q01020, doi:10.1029/2011GC003907. [2] Amakawa et al. (2000), Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 64, 1715-1727

Past changes in riverine input and ocean circulation in the Gulf of Guinea

Large river systems draining the West African Monsoon area deliver sediments and dissolved trace elements into the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) in the easternmost equatorial Atlantic. The different catchment areas of these river systems are characterized by different geological ages and rock types releasing distinct radiogenic neodymium isotope compositions during weathering which are supplied to the GoG. The main rivers discharging into the GoG are the Niger, the Sanaga, the Nyong and the Ntem with present day εNd signatures of -10.5 [1], -12.3, -12.5 and -28.1 [2], respectively. These riverine inputs mix with the tropical Atlantic surface waters. At intermediate water depths Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) prevails whereas the deep basin at this location is mainly filled with NADW. We focus on a marine sediment core that was recovered off the Sanaga and Ntem Rivers and we reconstruct changes in riverine inputs and in mixing of surface and deep water masses over the past 140,000 years. Changes in riverine inputs most likely reflecting latitudinal shifts of the rainfall zones across the different catchment areas were obtained from the Nd isotope signatures of the residual detrital fraction of the sediment. Sediment leachates of several GoG core top samples reflect the riverine input from nearby rivers indicating transport of particles coated in the rivers. Both the sediment leachates and the residual detrital fraction show similar patterns, with shifts towards radiogenic values during the interglacials and least radiogenic values during glacial periods. This shift in εNd values may be attributed to the migration of the rainfall zones towards the north during interglacial times and thus implies the increased influence of the northern rivers, the Sanaga and Nyong. The oxidatively-reductively cleaned planktonic foraminiferal calcite of the core top samples in the GoG reflects surface seawater signatures. Non-reductively cleaned planktonic foraminiferal tests and cleaned shallow endo-benthic and epi-benthic foraminiferal tests were used to acquire information about past bottom waters. Difficulties in cleaning down core foraminiferal samples were experienced and these samples appear to be contaminated by secondary manganese and iron bearing phases, even after cleaning. Those phases may have overprinted the original surface water Nd isotope composition in the planktonic foraminiferal tests. As the planktonic and benthic foraminiferal values are overall similar to the sediment leachates, the foraminiferal isotope signatures are most likely overprinted by isotopic signals originating from the rivers due to remobilization processes in the sediments and formation of secondary phases such as Mn-carbonates, which are attached to the foraminiferal calcites. References: [1] Goldstein et al. (1984) Earth and Planetary Science Letter 70, 221-236. [2] Weldeab et al. (2011) Geophysical Research Letter 38, pp. 5

Lee\u27s Army During the Overland Campaign: A Numerical Study

Understanding is more important than certainty, but certainty is nice when you can get it. This is an important book on a rather narrow topic. Decades in the researching, it presents a new and likely definitive picture of what the Army of Northern Virginia (plus attached forces in theate...

The Evolution of Hetergeneous "Clumpy Jets": A Parameter Study

We investigate the role discrete clumps embedded in an astrophysical jet play on the jet's morphology and line emission characteristics. By varying clumps' size, density, position, and velocity, we cover a range of parameter space motivated by observations of objects such as the Herbig Haro object HH~34. We here extend the results presented in Yirak et al. 2009, including how analysis of individual observations may lead to spurious sinusoidal variation whose parameters vary widely over time, owing chiefly to interacts between clumps. The goodness of the fits, while poor in all simulations, are best when clump-clump collisions are minimal. Our results indicate that a large velocity dispersion leads to a clump-clump collision-dominated flow which disrupts the jet beam. Finally, we present synthetic emission images of H-$\alpha$ and [SII] and note an excess of [SII] emission along the jet length as compared to observations. This suggests that observed beams undergo earlier processing, if they are present at all.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to the Astrophysical Journa

Algorithms for Scheduling Problems

This edited book presents new results in the area of algorithm development for different types of scheduling problems. In eleven chapters, algorithms for single machine problems, flow-shop and job-shop scheduling problems (including their hybrid (flexible) variants), the resource-constrained project scheduling problem, scheduling problems in complex manufacturing systems and supply chains, and workflow scheduling problems are given. The chapters address such subjects as insertion heuristics for energy-efficient scheduling, the re-scheduling of train traffic in real time, control algorithms for short-term scheduling in manufacturing systems, bi-objective optimization of tortilla production, scheduling problems with uncertain (interval) processing times, workflow scheduling for digital signal processor (DSP) clusters, and many more

The power group enumeration theorem

AbstractThe number of orbits of a permutation group was determined in a fundamental result of Burnside. This was extended in a classical paper by Pólya to a solution of the problem of enumerating the equivalence classes of functions with a given weight from a set X into a set Y, subject to the action of the permutation group A acting on X. A generalization by de Bruijn solved the counting problem when two permutation groups are involved, A acting on X and B on Y. Thus the Pólya formula is the special case of the de Bruijn result in which B is the identity group. The Power Group Enumeration Theorem achieves the same result using only one permutation group: the power group, BA, acting on the set YX of functions. de Bruijn's method was used to count self-complementary graphs by R. C. Read and finite automata by M. Harrison. These results as well as the number of self-converse directed graphs and others are easily obtained by the proper use of the Power Group Enumeration Theorem

Don\u27t You Remember?

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