Association of predicted 10 years cardiovascular mortality risk with duration of HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa

Background: South Africa has the largest population of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) realising the benefits of increased life expectancy. However, this population may be susceptible to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development, due to the chronic consequences of a lifestyle-related combination of risk factors, HIV infection and ART. We predicted a 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk in an HIV-infected population on long-term ART, based on their observed metabolic risk factor profile. Methods: We extracted data from hospital medical charts for 384 randomly selected HIV-infected patients aged ≥ 30 years. We defined metabolic syndrome (MetS) subcomponents using the International Diabetes Federation definition. A validated non-laboratory-based model for predicting a 10-year CVD mortality risk was applied and categorised into five levels, with the thresholds ranging from very low-risk ( 30%). Results: Among the 384 patients, with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 42.90 ± 8.20 years, the proportion of patients that were overweight/obese was 53.3%, where 50.9% had low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and 21 (17.5%) had metabolic syndrome. A total of 144 patients with complete data allowed a definitive prediction of a 10-year CVD mortality risk. 52% (95% CI 44-60) of the patients were stratified to very low risk ( 30%) of 10-year CVD mortality. The CVD risk grows with increasing age (years), 57.82 ± 6.27 among very high risk and 37.52 ± 4.50; p < 0.001 in very low risk patients. Adjusting for age and analysing CVD risk mortality as a continuous risk score, increasing duration of HIV infection (p = 0.002) and ART (p = 0.007) were significantly associated with increased predicted 10 year CVD mortality risk. However, there was no association between these factors and categorised CVD mortality risk as per recommended scoring thresholds. Conclusions: Approximately 1 in 10 HIV-infected patients is at very high risk of predicted 10-year CVD mortality in our study population. Like uninfected individuals, our study found increased age as a major predictor of 10-year mortality risk and high prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Additional CVD mortality risk due to the duration of HIV infection and ART was seen in our population, further studies in larger and more representative study samples are encouraged. It recommends an urgent need for early planning, prevention and management of metabolic risk factors in HIV populations, at the point of ART initiation

Homocysteine and Coronary Heart Disease: Meta-analysis of MTHFR Case-Control Studies, Avoiding Publication Bias

Robert Clarke and colleagues conduct a meta-analysis of unpublished datasets to examine the causal relationship between elevation of homocysteine levels in the blood and the risk of coronary heart disease. Their data suggest that an increase in homocysteine levels is not likely to result in an increase in risk of coronary heart disease

Pharmacology and therapeutic implications of current drugs for type 2 diabetes mellitus

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global epidemic that poses a major challenge to health-care systems. Improving metabolic control to approach normal glycaemia (where practical) greatly benefits long-term prognoses and justifies early, effective, sustained and safety-conscious intervention. Improvements in the understanding of the complex pathogenesis of T2DM have underpinned the development of glucose-lowering therapies with complementary mechanisms of action, which have expanded treatment options and facilitated individualized management strategies. Over the past decade, several new classes of glucose-lowering agents have been licensed, including glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors. These agents can be used individually or in combination with well-established treatments such as biguanides, sulfonylureas and thiazolidinediones. Although novel agents have potential advantages including low risk of hypoglycaemia and help with weight control, long-term safety has yet to be established. In this Review, we assess the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety profiles, including cardiovascular safety, of currently available therapies for management of hyperglycaemia in patients with T2DM within the context of disease pathogenesis and natural history. In addition, we briefly describe treatment algorithms for patients with T2DM and lessons from present therapies to inform the development of future therapies

Estimating the burden of selected non-communicable diseases in Africa: a systematic review of the evidence

Background The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing globally, and particularly in Africa, where the health focus, until recently, has been on infectious diseases. The response to this growing burden of NCDs in Africa has been affected owing to a poor understanding of the burden of NCDs, and the relative lack of data and low level of research on NCDs in the continent. Recent estimates on the burden of NCDs in Africa have been mostly derived from modelling based on data from other countries imputed into African countries, and not usually based on data originating from Africa itself. In instances where few data were available, estimates have been characterized by extrapolation and over-modelling of the scarce data. It is therefore believed that underestimation of NCDs burden in many parts of Africa cannot be unexpected. With a gradual increase in average life expectancy across Africa, the region now experiencing the fastest rate of urbanization globally, and an increase adoption of unhealthy lifestyles, the burden of NCDs is expected to rise. This thesis will, therefore, be focussing on understanding the prevalence, and/or where there are available data, the incidence, of four major NCDs in Africa, which have contributed highly to the burden of NCDs, not only in Africa, but also globally. Methods I conducted a systematic search of the literature on three main databases (Medline, EMBASE and Global Health) for epidemiological studies on NCDs conducted in Africa. I retained and extracted data from original population-based (cohort or cross sectional), and/or health service records (hospital or registry-based studies) on prevalence and/or incidence rates of four major NCDs in Africa. These include: cardiovascular diseases (hypertension and stroke), diabetes, major cancer types (cervical, breast, prostate, ovary, oesophagus, bladder, Kaposi, liver, stomach, colorectal, lung and non-Hodgkin lymphoma), and chronic respiratory diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma). From extracted crude prevalence and incidence rates, a random effect meta-analysis was conducted and reported for each NCD. An epidemiological model was applied on all extracted data points. The fitted curve explaining the largest proportion of variance (best fit) from the model was further applied. The equation generated from the fitted curve was used to determine the prevalence and cases of the specific NCD in Africa at midpoints of the United Nations (UN) population 5-year age-group population estimates for Africa. Results From the literature search, studies on hypertension had the highest publication output at 7680, 92 of which were selected, spreading across 31 African countries. Cancer had 9762 publications and 39 were selected across 20 countries; diabetes had 3701 publications and 48 were selected across 28 countries; stroke had 1227 publications and 19 were selected across 10 countries; asthma had 790 publications and 45 were selected across 24 countries; and COPD had the lowest output with 243 publications and 13 were selected across 8 countries. From studies reporting prevalence rates, hypertension, with a total sample size of 197734, accounted for 130.2 million cases and a prevalence of 25.9% (23.5, 34.0) in Africa in 2010. This is followed by asthma, with a sample size of 187904, accounting for 58.2 million cases and a prevalence of 6.6% (2.4, 7.9); COPD, with a sample size of 24747, accounting for 26.3 million cases and a prevalence of 13.4% (9.4, 22.1); diabetes, with a sample size of 102517, accounting for 24.5 million cases and a prevalence of 4.0% (2.7, 6.4); and stroke, with a sample size of about 6.3 million, accounting for 1.94 million cases and a prevalence of 317.3 per 100000 population (314.0, 748.2). From studies reporting incidence rates, stroke accounted for 496 thousand new cases in Africa in 2010, with a prevalence of 81.3 per 100000 person years (13.2, 94.9). For the 12 cancer types reviewed, a total of 775 thousand new cases were estimated in Africa in 2010 from registry-based data covering a total population of about 33 million. Among women, cervical cancer and breast cancer had 129 thousand and 81 thousand new cases, with incidence rates of 28.2 (22.1, 34.3) and 17.7 (13.0, 22.4) per 100000 person years, respectively. Among men, prostate cancer and Kaposi sarcoma closely follows with 75 thousand and 74 thousand new cases, with incidence rates of 14.5 (10.9, 18.0) and 14.3 (11.9, 16.7) per 100000 person years, respectively. Conclusion This study suggests the prevalence rates of the four major NCDs reviewed (cardiovascular diseases (hypertension and stroke), diabetes, major cancer types, and chronic respiratory diseases (COPD and asthma) in Africa are high relative to global estimates. Due to the lack of data on many NCDs across the continent, there are still doubts on the true prevalence of these diseases relative to the current African population. There is need for improvement in health information system and overall data management, especially at country level in Africa. Governments of African nations, international organizations, experts and other stakeholders need to invest more on NCDs research, particularly mortality, risk factors, and health determinants to have evidenced-based facts on the drivers of this epidemic in the continent, and prompt better, effective and overall public health response to NCDs in Africa

Designing and testing credibility: The case of a serious game on nightlife risks

This paper describes a game directed to young adults and aimed at sensitizing them about potential risks of psychoactive substance abuse during nightlife events. Of interest here is that this game targets a domain in which the credibility of a persuasive intervention is particularly fragile. The design decisions and the recommendations inspiring them are described first, characterized by an effort to fit the context in which the game was going to be used. In addition, a field study with real users during nightlife events is reported (N = 136), in which several dimensions of the game credibility are evaluated and compared with the credibility of a serious information tool (leaflets) in a between-participant design. By describing this case, the opportunity is taken to emphasize the importance of serious games credibility, and to enumerate some of the occasions to improve its strength that can be found during its design to evaluation

A cross-sectional study of the microeconomic impact of cardiovascular disease hospitalization in four low- and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVE: To estimate individual and household economic impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in selected low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence on the microeconomic consequences of CVD in LMIC is scarce. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We surveyed 1,657 recently hospitalized CVD patients (66% male; mean age 55.8 years) from Argentina, China, India, and Tanzania to evaluate the microeconomic and functional/productivity impact of CVD hospitalization. Respondents were stratified into three income groups. Median out-of-pocket expenditures for CVD treatment over 15 month follow-up ranged from 354 international dollars (2007 INT$, Tanzania, low-income) to INT$2,917 (India, high-income). Catastrophic health spending (CHS) was present in >50% of respondents in China, India, and Tanzania. Distress financing (DF) and lost income were more common in low-income respondents. After adjustment, lack of health insurance was associated with CHS in Argentina (OR 4.73 [2.56, 8.76], India (OR 3.93 [2.23, 6.90], and Tanzania (OR 3.68 [1.86, 7.26] with a marginal association in China (OR 2.05 [0.82, 5.11]). These economic effects were accompanied by substantial decreases in individual functional health and productivity. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals in selected LMIC bear significant financial burdens following CVD hospitalization, yet with substantial variation across and within countries. Lack of insurance may drive much of the financial stress of CVD in LMIC patients and their families