Kernel-based methods for combining information of several frame surveys

A sample selected from a single sampling frame may not represent adequatly the entire population. Multiple frame surveys are becoming increasingly used and popular among statistical agencies and private organizations, in particular in situations where several sampling frames may provide better coverage or can reduce sampling costs for estimating population quantities of interest. Auxiliary information available at the population level is often categorical in nature, so that incorporating categorical and continuous information can improve the efficiency of the method of estimation. Nonparametric regression methods represent a widely used and flexible estimation approach in the survey context. We propose a kernel regression estimator for dual frame surveys that can handle both continuous and categorical data. This methodology is extended to multiple frame surveys. We derive theoretical properties of the proposed methods and numerical experiments indicate that the proposed estimator perform well in practical settings under different scenarios.Ministerio de Economía y CompetitividadConsejería de Economía, Innovación, Ciencia y Emple

Mortality of Patients Lost to Follow-Up in Antiretroviral Treatment Programmes in Resource-Limited Settings: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%-48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Overexpression of Dyrk1A Is Implicated in Several Cognitive, Electrophysiological and Neuromorphological Alterations Found in a Mouse Model of Down Syndrome

Down syndrome (DS) phenotypes result from the overexpression of several dosage-sensitive genes. The DYRK1A (dual-specificity tyrosine-(Y)-phosphorylation regulated kinase 1A) gene, which has been implicated in the behavioral and neuronal alterations that are characteristic of DS, plays a role in neuronal progenitor proliferation, neuronal differentiation and long-term potentiation (LTP) mechanisms that contribute to the cognitive deficits found in DS. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of Dyrk1A overexpression on the behavioral and cognitive alterations in the Ts65Dn (TS) mouse model, which is the most commonly utilized mouse model of DS, as well as on several neuromorphological and electrophysiological properties proposed to underlie these deficits. In this study, we analyzed the phenotypic differences in the progeny obtained from crosses of TS females and heterozygous Dyrk1A (+/-) male mice. Our results revealed that normalization of the Dyrk1A copy number in TS mice improved working and reference memory based on the Morris water maze and contextual conditioning based on the fear conditioning test and rescued hippocampal LTP. Concomitant with these functional improvements, normalization of the Dyrk1A expression level in TS mice restored the proliferation and differentiation of hippocampal cells in the adult dentate gyrus (DG) and the density of GABAergic and glutamatergic synapse markers in the molecular layer of the hippocampus. However, normalization of the Dyrk1A gene dosage did not affect other structural (e.g., the density of mature hippocampal granule cells, the DG volume and the subgranular zone area) or behavioral (i.e., hyperactivity/attention) alterations found in the TS mouse. These results suggest that Dyrk1A overexpression is involved in some of the cognitive, electrophysiological and neuromorphological alterations, but not in the structural alterations found in DS, and suggest that pharmacological strategies targeting this gene may improve the treatment of DS-associated learning disabilities

The role of the electrocardiographic phenotype in risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is routinely performed in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). An ECG risk score has been suggested as a useful tool for risk stratification, but this has not been independently validated. This aim of this study was to describe the ECG phenotype of childhood HCM in a large, international, multi-centre cohort and investigate its role in risk prediction for arrhythmic events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 356 childhood HCM patients with a mean age of 10.1 years (±4.5) were collected from a retrospective, multi-centre international cohort. Three hundred and forty-seven (97.5%) patients had ECG abnormalities at baseline, most commonly repolarization abnormalities (n = 277, 77.8%); left ventricular hypertrophy (n = 240, 67.7%); abnormal QRS axis (n = 126, 35.4%); or QT prolongation (n = 131, 36.8%). Over a median follow-up of 3.9 years (interquartile range 2.0-7.7), 25 (7%) had an arrhythmic event, with an overall annual event rate of 1.38 (95% CI 0.93-2.04). No ECG variables were associated with 5-year arrhythmic event on univariable or multivariable analysis. The ECG risk score threshold of >5 had modest discriminatory ability [C-index 0.60 (95% CI 0.484-0.715)], with corresponding negative and positive predictive values of 96.7% and 6.7. CONCLUSION: In a large, international, multi-centre cohort of childhood HCM, ECG abnormalities were common and varied. No ECG characteristic, either in isolation or combined in the previously described ECG risk score, was associated with 5-year sudden cardiac death risk. This suggests that the role of baseline ECG phenotype in improving risk stratification in childhood HCM is limited

Systemic Maternal Inflammation and Neonatal Hyperoxia Induces Remodeling and Left Ventricular Dysfunction in Mice

The impact of the neonatal environment on the development of adult cardiovascular disease is poorly understood. Systemic maternal inflammation is linked to growth retardation, preterm birth, and maturation deficits in the developing fetus. Often preterm or small-for-gestational age infants require medical interventions such as oxygen therapy. The long-term pathological consequences of medical interventions on an immature physiology remain unknown. In the present study, we hypothesized that systemic maternal inflammation and neonatal hyperoxia exposure compromise cardiac structure, resulting in LV dysfunction during adulthood.Pregnant C3H/HeN mice were injected on embryonic day 16 (E16) with LPS (80 µg/kg; i.p.) or saline. Offspring were placed in room air (RA) or 85% O(2) for 14 days and subsequently maintained in RA. Cardiac echocardiography, cardiomyocyte contractility, and molecular analyses were performed. Echocardiography revealed persistent lower left ventricular fractional shortening with greater left ventricular end systolic diameter at 8 weeks in LPS/O(2) than in saline/RA mice. Isolated cardiomyocytes from LPS/O(2) mice had slower rates of contraction and relaxation, and a slower return to baseline length than cardiomyocytes isolated from saline/RA controls. α-/β-MHC ratio was increased and Connexin-43 levels decreased in LPS/O(2) mice at 8 weeks. Nox4 was reduced between day 3 and 14 and capillary density was lower at 8 weeks of life in LPS/O(2) mice.These results demonstrate that systemic maternal inflammation combined with neonatal hyperoxia exposure induces alterations in cardiac structure and function leading to cardiac failure in adulthood and supports the importance of the intrauterine and neonatal milieu on adult health

SMAD3 rs17228212 Gene Polymorphism Is Associated with Reduced Risk to Cerebrovascular Accidents and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Anti-CCP Negative Spanish Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a complex polygenic inflammatory disease associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. Previous genome-wide association studies have described SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism as an important signal associated with CV events. The aim of the present study was to evaluate for the first time the relationship between this gene polymorphism and the susceptibility to CV manifestations and its potential association with the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by the evaluation of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in patients with RA

Active and poised promoter states drive folding of the extended HoxB locus in mouse embryonic stem cells

Gene expression states influence the three-dimensional conformation of the genome through poorly understood mechanisms. Here, we investigate the conformation of the murine HoxB locus, a gene-dense genomic region containing closely spaced genes with distinct activation states in mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells. To predict possible folding scenarios, we performed computer simulations of polymer models informed with different chromatin occupancy features, which define promoter activation states or CTCF binding sites. Single cell imaging of the locus folding was performed to test model predictions. While CTCF occupancy alone fails to predict the in vivo folding at genomic length scale of 10 kb, we found that homotypic interactions between active and Polycomb-repressed promoters co-occurring in the same DNA fibre fully explain the HoxB folding patterns imaged in single cells. We identify state-dependent promoter interactions as major drivers of chromatin folding in gene-dense regions

TGF-β-Mediated Sustained ERK1/2 Activity Promotes the Inhibition of Intracellular Growth of Mycobacterium avium in Epithelioid Cells Surrogates

Transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of several diseases including infection with intracellular pathogens such as the Mycobacterium avium complex. Infection of macrophages with M. avium induces TGF-β production and neutralization of this cytokine has been associated with decreased intracellular bacterial growth. We have previously demonstrated that epithelioid cell surrogates (ECs) derived from primary murine peritoneal macrophages through a process of differentiation induced by IL-4 overlap several features of epithelioid cells found in granulomas. In contrast to undifferentiated macrophages, ECs produce larger amounts of TGF-β and inhibit the intracellular growth of M. avium. Here we asked whether the levels of TGF-β produced by ECs are sufficient to induce a self-sustaining autocrine TGF-β signaling controlling mycobacterial replication in infected-cells. We showed that while exogenous addition of increased concentration of TGF-β to infected-macrophages counteracted M. avium replication, pharmacological blockage of TGF-β receptor kinase activity with SB-431542 augmented bacterial load in infected-ECs. Moreover, the levels of TGF-β produced by ECs correlated with high and sustained levels of ERK1/2 activity. Inhibition of ERK1/2 activity with U0126 increased M. avium replication in infected-cells, suggesting that modulation of intracellular bacterial growth is dependent on the activation of ERK1/2. Interestingly, blockage of TGF-β receptor kinase activity with SB-431542 in infected-ECs inhibited ERK1/2 activity, enhanced intracellular M. avium burden and these effects were followed by a severe decrease in TGF-β production. In summary, our findings indicate that the amplitude of TGF-β signaling coordinates the strength and duration of ERK1/2 activity that is determinant for the control of intracellular mycobacterial growth