Statistical modelling of counts with a simple integer-valued bilinear process

The aim of this work is the statistical modelling of counts assuming low values and exhibiting sudden and large bursts that occur randomly in time. It is well known that bilinear processes capture these kind of phenomena. In this work the integer-valued bilinear INBL(1,0,1,1) model is discussed and some properties are reviewed. Classical and Bayesian methodologies are considered and compared through simulation studies, namely to obtain estimates of model parameters and to calculate point and interval predictions. Finally, an empirical application to real epidemiological count data is also presented to attest for its practical applicability in data analysis.publishe

Single cell derived mRNA signals across human kidney tumors.

Tumor cells may share some patterns of gene expression with their cell of origin, providing clues into the differentiation state and origin of cancer. Here, we study the differentiation state and cellular origin of 1300 childhood and adult kidney tumors. Using single cell mRNA reference maps of normal tissues, we quantify reference "cellular signals" in each tumor. Quantifying global differentiation, we find that childhood tumors exhibit fetal cellular signals, replacing the presumption of "fetalness" with a quantitative measure of immaturity. By contrast, in adult cancers our assessment refutes the suggestion of dedifferentiation towards a fetal state in most cases. We find an intimate connection between developmental mesenchymal populations and childhood renal tumors. We demonstrate the diagnostic potential of our approach with a case study of a cryptic renal tumor. Our findings provide a cellular definition of human renal tumors through an approach that is broadly applicable to human cancer

Positive Selection for New Disease Mutations in the Human Germline: Evidence from the Heritable Cancer Syndrome Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia Type 2B

Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2B (MEN2B) is a highly aggressive thyroid cancer syndrome. Since almost all sporadic cases are caused by the same nucleotide substitution in the RET proto-oncogene, the calculated disease incidence is 100–200 times greater than would be expected based on the genome average mutation frequency. In order to determine whether this increased incidence is due to an elevated mutation rate at this position (true mutation hot spot) or a selective advantage conferred on mutated spermatogonial stem cells, we studied the spatial distribution of the mutation in 14 human testes. In donors aged 36–68, mutations were clustered with small regions of each testis having mutation frequencies several orders of magnitude greater than the rest of the testis. In donors aged 19–23 mutations were almost non-existent, demonstrating that clusters in middle-aged donors grew during adulthood. Computational analysis showed that germline selection is the only plausible explanation. Testes of men aged 75–80 were heterogeneous with some like middle-aged and others like younger testes. Incorporating data on age-dependent death of spermatogonial stem cells explains the results from all age groups. Germline selection also explains MEN2B's male mutation bias and paternal age effect. Our discovery focuses attention on MEN2B as a model for understanding the genetic and biochemical basis of germline selection. Since RET function in mouse spermatogonial stem cells has been extensively studied, we are able to suggest that the MEN2B mutation provides a selective advantage by altering the PI3K/AKT and SFK signaling pathways. Mutations that are preferred in the germline but reduce the fitness of offspring increase the population's mutational load. Our approach is useful for studying other disease mutations with similar characteristics and could uncover additional germline selection pathways or identify true mutation hot spots

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France

French state deficit, Temporal aggregation, Intra-annual, Forecasting, C22, C53, E62, H60,