Modern pollen-vegetation relationships along a steep temperature gradient in the Tropical Andes of Ecuador

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this record.The characterization of modern pollen rain assemblages along environmental gradients is an essential prerequisite for reliable interpretations of fossil pollen records. In this study, we identify pollen-vegetation relationships using modern pollen rain assemblages in moss polsters (n = 13) and lake sediment surface samples (n = 11) along a steep temperature gradient of 7°C (3100–4200 m above sea level) on the western Andean Cordillera, Ecuador. The pollen rain is correlated to vascular plant abundance data recorded in vegetation relevées (n = 13). Results show that pollen spectra from both moss polsters and sediment surface samples reflect changes in species composition along the temperature gradient, despite overrepresentation of upper montane forest taxa in the latter. Estimated pollen transport distance for a lake (Laguna Llaviucu) situated in a steep upper montane forest valley is 1–2 km, while a lake (Laguna Pallcacocha) in the páramo captures pollen input from a distance of up to 10–40 km. Weinmannia spp., Podocarpus spp., and Hedyosmum sp. are indicators of local upper montane forest vegetation, while Phlegmariurus spp. and Plantago spp. are indicators for local páramo vegetation.Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Researc

Interactive comment on CO2 radiative forcing during the Holocene Thermal Maximum revealed by stomatal frequency of Iberian oak leaves (2)

Here we analyse radiocarbon-dated Quercus leaf assemblages from northern Spain to obtain past atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios for the time period 9000–1100 cal BP by means of stomatal frequency analysis. Normalized, stomata based CO2 records show fluctuations of 20 ppmv during the Holocene that parallel Northern 5 Hemisphere palaeotemperature reconstructions. The calculated radiative forcing of CO2 indicates a CO2 contribution of +0.1_C to the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7 to 5 kyr BP, and −0.05_C to the Neoglacial cooling around 4 kyr BP. Derived northern hemispheric air-temperature anomalies forced by atmospheric CO2 variation suggest an active role 10 of this trace gas as an amplifier of initial orbital forcing of Holocene climate

Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes.Earth and Life Science council (ALW), Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO

Use of Bayesian networks in forensic soil casework

Forensic soil comparisons can be of high evidential value in a forensic case, but become complex when multiple methods and factors are considered. Bayesian networks are well suited to support forensic practitioners in complex casework. This study discusses the structure of a Bayesian network, elaborates on the in- and output data and evaluates two examples, one using source level propositions and one using activity level propositions. These examples can be applied as a template to construct a case specific network and can be used to assess sensitivity of the target output to different factors and identify avenues for research

Spatial and topological organization of DNA chains induced by gene co-localization

Transcriptional activity has been shown to relate to the organization of chromosomes in the eukaryotic nucleus and in the bacterial nucleoid. In particular, highly transcribed genes, RNA polymerases and transcription factors gather into discrete spatial foci called transcription factories. However, the mechanisms underlying the formation of these foci and the resulting topological order of the chromosome remain to be elucidated. Here we consider a thermodynamic framework based on a worm-like chain model of chromosomes where sparse designated sites along the DNA are able to interact whenever they are spatially close-by. This is motivated by recurrent evidence that there exists physical interactions between genes that operate together. Three important results come out of this simple framework. First, the resulting formation of transcription foci can be viewed as a micro-phase separation of the interacting sites from the rest of the DNA. In this respect, a thermodynamic analysis suggests transcription factors to be appropriate candidates for mediating the physical interactions between genes. Next, numerical simulations of the polymer reveal a rich variety of phases that are associated with different topological orderings, each providing a way to increase the local concentrations of the interacting sites. Finally, the numerical results show that both one-dimensional clustering and periodic location of the binding sites along the DNA, which have been observed in several organisms, make the spatial co-localization of multiple families of genes particularly efficient.Comment: Figures and Supplementary Material freely available on http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.100067

Biodiversity responses to Lateglacial climate change in the subdecadally-resolved record of Lake Hämelsee (Germany)

Anthropogenically-driven climate warming and land use change are the main causes of an ongoing decrease in global biodiversity. It is unclear how ecosystems, particularly freshwater habitats, will respond to such continuous and potentially intensifying disruptions. Here we analyse how different components of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems responded to natural climate change during the Lateglacial. By applying a range of analytical techniques (sedimentology, palaeoecology, geochemistry) to the well-dated sediment archive from Lake Hämelsee (Germany), we show evidence for vegetation development, landscape dynamics and aquatic ecosystem change typical for northwest Europe during the Lateglacial. By particularly focussing on periods of abrupt climate change, we determine the timing and duration of changes in biodiversity in response to external forcing. We show that onsets of changes in biodiversity indicators (e.g. diatom composition, Pediastrum concentrations) lag changes in environmental records (e.g. loss-on-ignition) by a few decades, particularly at the Allerød/ Younger Dryas transition. Most biodiversity indicators showed transition times of 10–50 years, whereas environmental records typically showed a 50–100 year long transition. In some cases, transition times observed for the compositional turnover or productivity records were up to 185 years, which could have been the result of the combined effects of direct (e.g. climate) and indirect (e.g. lake stratification) drivers of ecosystem change. Our results show differences in timing and duration of biodiversity responses to external disturbances, suggesting that a multi-decadal view needs to be taken when designing effective conservation management of freshwater ecosystems under current global warming

Biodiversity responses to Lateglacial climate change in the subdecadally-resolved record of Lake Hämelsee (Germany)

Anthropogenically-driven climate warming and land use change are the main causes of an ongoing decrease in global biodiversity. It is unclear how ecosystems, particularly freshwater habitats, will respond to such continuous and potentially intensifying disruptions. Here we analyse how different components of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems responded to natural climate change during the Lateglacial. By applying a range of analytical techniques (sedimentology, palaeoecology, geochemistry) to the well-dated sediment archive from Lake Hämelsee (Germany), we show evidence for vegetation development, landscape dynamics and aquatic ecosystem change typical for northwest Europe during the Lateglacial. By particularly focussing on periods of abrupt climate change, we determine the timing and duration of changes in biodiversity in response to external forcing. We show that onsets of changes in biodiversity indicators (e.g. diatom composition, Pediastrum concentrations) lag changes in environmental records (e.g. loss-on-ignition) by a few decades, particularly at the Allerød/Younger Dryas transition. Most biodiversity indicators showed transition times of 10–50 years, whereas environmental records typically showed a 50–100 year long transition. In some cases, transition times observed for the compositional turnover or productivity records were up to 185 years, which could have been the result of the combined effects of direct (e.g. climate) and indirect (e.g. lake stratification) drivers of ecosystem change. Our results show differences in timing and duration of biodiversity responses to external disturbances, suggesting that a multi-decadal view needs to be taken when designing effective conservation management of freshwater ecosystems under current global warming

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance

Traffic and Related Self-Driven Many-Particle Systems

Since the subject of traffic dynamics has captured the interest of physicists, many astonishing effects have been revealed and explained. Some of the questions now understood are the following: Why are vehicles sometimes stopped by so-called ``phantom traffic jams'', although they all like to drive fast? What are the mechanisms behind stop-and-go traffic? Why are there several different kinds of congestion, and how are they related? Why do most traffic jams occur considerably before the road capacity is reached? Can a temporary reduction of the traffic volume cause a lasting traffic jam? Under which conditions can speed limits speed up traffic? Why do pedestrians moving in opposite directions normally organize in lanes, while similar systems are ``freezing by heating''? Why do self-organizing systems tend to reach an optimal state? Why do panicking pedestrians produce dangerous deadlocks? All these questions have been answered by applying and extending methods from statistical physics and non-linear dynamics to self-driven many-particle systems. This review article on traffic introduces (i) empirically data, facts, and observations, (ii) the main approaches to pedestrian, highway, and city traffic, (iii) microscopic (particle-based), mesoscopic (gas-kinetic), and macroscopic (fluid-dynamic) models. Attention is also paid to the formulation of a micro-macro link, to aspects of universality, and to other unifying concepts like a general modelling framework for self-driven many-particle systems, including spin systems. Subjects such as the optimization of traffic flows and relations to biological or socio-economic systems such as bacterial colonies, flocks of birds, panics, and stock market dynamics are discussed as well.Comment: A shortened version of this article will appear in Reviews of Modern Physics, an extended one as a book. The 63 figures were omitted because of storage capacity. For related work see http://www.helbing.org