Consistency of satellite-based precipitation products in space and over time compared with gauge observations and snow- hydrological modelling in the Lake Titicaca region

This paper proposes a protocol to assess the space–time consistency of 12 satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) according to various indicators, including (i) direct comparison of SPPs with 72 precipitation gauges; (ii) sensitivity of streamflow modelling to SPPs at the outlet of four basins; and (iii) the sensitivity of distributed snow models to SPPs using a MODIS snow product as reference in an unmonitored mountainous area. The protocol was applied successively to four different time windows (2000–2004, 2004–2008, 2008–2012 and 2000–2012) to account for the space–time variability of the SPPs and to a large dataset composed of 12 SPPs (CMORPH–RAW v.1, CMORPH–CRT v.1, CMORPH–BLD v.1, CHIRP v.2, CHIRPS v.2, GSMaP v.6, MSWEP v.2.1, PERSIANN, PERSIANN–CDR, TMPA–RT v.7, TMPA–Adj v.7 and SM2Rain–CCI v.2), an unprecedented comparison. The aim of using different space scales and timescales and indicators was to evaluate whether the efficiency of SPPs varies with the method of assessment, time window and location. Results revealed very high discrepancies between SPPs. Compared to precipitation gauge observations, some SPPs (CMORPH–RAW v.1, CMORPH–CRT v.1, GSMaP v.6, PERSIANN, and TMPA–RT v.7) are unable to estimate regional precipitation, whereas the others (CHIRP v.2, CHIRPS v.2, CMORPH–BLD v.1, MSWEP v.2.1, PERSIANN–CDR, and TMPA–Adj v.7) produce a realistic representation despite recurrent spatial limitation over regions with contrasted emissivity, temperature and orography. In 9 out of 10 of the cases studied, streamflow was more realistically simulated when SPPs were used as forcing precipitation data rather than precipitation derived from the available precipitation gauge networks, whereas the SPP's ability to reproduce the duration of MODIS-based snow cover resulted in poorer simulations than simulation using available precipitation gauges. Interestingly, the potential of the SPPs varied significantly when they were used to reproduce gauge precipitation estimates, streamflow observations or snow cover duration and depending on the time window considered. SPPs thus produce space–time errors that cannot be assessed when a single indicator and/or time window is used, underlining the importance of carefully considering their space–time consistency before using them for hydro-climatic studies. Among all the SPPs assessed, MSWEP v.2.1 showed the highest space–time accuracy and consistency in reproducing gauge precipitation estimates, streamflow and snow cover duration.</p

Hypothesis: primary antiangiogenic method proposed to treat early stage breast cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Women with Down syndrome very rarely develop breast cancer even though they now live to an age when it normally occurs. This may be related to the fact that Down syndrome persons have an additional copy of chromosome 21 where the gene that codes for the antiangiogenic protein Endostatin is located. Can this information lead to a primary antiangiogenic therapy for early stage breast cancer that indefinitely prolongs remission? A key question that arises is when is the initial angiogenic switch thrown in micrometastases? We have conjectured that avascular micrometastases are dormant and relatively stable if undisturbed but that for some patients angiogenesis is precipitated by surgery. We also proposed that angiogenesis of micrometastases very rarely occurs before surgical removal of the primary tumor. If that is so, it seems possible that we could suggest a primary antiangiogenic therapy but the problem then arises that starting a therapy before surgery would interfere with wound healing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The therapy must be initiated at least one day prior to surgical removal of the primary tumor and kept at a Down syndrome level perhaps indefinitely. That means the drug must have virtually no toxicity and not interfere meaningfully with wound healing. This specifically excludes drugs that significantly inhibit the VEGF pathway since that is important for wound healing and because these agents have some toxicity. Endostatin is apparently non-toxic and does not significantly interfere with wound healing since Down syndrome patients have no abnormal wound healing problems.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We propose a therapy for early stage breast cancer consisting of Endostatin at or above Down syndrome levels starting at least one day before surgery and continuing at that level. This should prevent micrometastatic angiogenesis resulting from surgery or at any time later. Adjuvant chemotherapy or hormone therapy should not be necessary. This can be continued indefinitely since there is no acquired resistance that develops, as happens in most cancer therapies.</p

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species

Global lake responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species

Comment dresser un objet lourd?: Analyses des productions écrites et des conversations d'élèves âgés de dix ans et travaillant en trios

International audienc

Evaluation of 23 gridded precipitation datasets across West Africa

International audienceHighlights:• Unprecedented report on 23 precipitation datasets reliability across West Africa.• Large discrepancies are observed between the precipitation datasets reliability.• The datasets reliability differ in space and according to the considered time step.• MSWEP is the most accurate dataset to represent the daily precipitation dynamic.• CHIRPS is the most accurate dataset to represent the monthly precipitation dynamic.Abstract: This study aims reporting on 23 gridded precipitation datasets (P-datasets) reliability across West Africa through direct comparisons with rain gauges measurement at the daily and monthly time scales over a 4 years period (2000-2003). All P-datasets reliability vary in space and time. The most efficient P-dataset in term of Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) changes at the local scale and the P-dataset performance is sensitive to seasonal effects. Satellite-based P-datasets performed better during the wet than the dry season whereas the opposite is observed for reanalysis P-datasets. The best overall performance was obtained for MSWEP v.2.2 and CHIRPS v.2 for daily and monthly time-step, respectively. Part of the differences in P-dataset performance at daily and monthly time step comes from the time step used to proceed the gauges adjustment (i.e day or month) and from a mismatch between gauge and satellite reporting times. In comparison to the others P-datasets, TMPA-Adj v.7 reliability is stable and reach the second highest KGE value at both daily and monthly time step. Reanalysis P-datasets (WFDEI, MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim) present among the lowest statistical scores at the daily time step, which drastically increased at the monthly time step for WFDEI and MERRA-2. The non-adjusted P-datasets were the less efficient, but, their near-real time availability should be helpful for risk forecast studies (i.e. GSMaP-RT v.6). The results of this study give important elements to select the most adapted P-dataset for specific application across West Africa