The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling

In this paper a local case study is presented in which detailed inundation simulations have been performed to support damage analysis and risk assessment related to the 2004 tsunami in Phang Nga and Phuket, Thailand. Besides tsunami sources, bathymetry and topography, bottom roughness induced by vegetation and built environment is considered to influence inundation characteristics, such as water depths or flow velocities and therefore attracts major attention in this work. Plenty of information available on the 2004 tsunami event, high-resolution satellite imagery and extensive field measurements to derive land cover information and forest stand parameters facilitated the generation of topographic datasets, land cover maps and site-specific Manning values for the most prominent land cover classes in the study areas. The numerical models ComMIT and Mike 21 FM were used to hindcast the observed tsunami inundation and to draw conclusions on the influence of land cover on inundation patterns. Results show a strong influence of dense vegetation on flow velocities, which were reduced by up to 50% by mangroves, while the inundation extent is influenced only to a lesser extent. In urban areas, the disregard of buildings in the model led to a significant overestimation of the inundation extent. Hence different approaches to consider buildings were used and analyzed in the model. The case study highlights the importance and quantifies the effects of considering land cover roughness in inundation simulations used for local risk assessment

Tsunamigenic Potential of the Baiyun Slide Complex in the South China Sea

The Baiyun slide complex contains geological evidence for some of the largest landslide ever discovered in the continental slopes of the South China Sea. High-resolution seismic data suggest that a variety of landslides with varied scales have occurred repeatedly in this area. The largest landslide reconstructed from bathymetric and seismic data has an estimated spatial coverage of ~5,500 km2 and a conservative volume of ~1,035 km3. Here, using geomorphological and geotechnical data, we construct a series of probable landslide scenarios and assess their tsunamigenic capacity. By treating the slides as deformable mudflows, we simulate the dynamics of landslide movements. The simulated landslide motions match the geophysical observations interpreted in previous studies. Particularly, we are able to reproduce the spatial distribution of observed runout, including the distance, shape, and deposit thickness, for the most credible slide scenario. We investigate tsunami impacts generated by different slide scenarios and highlight the importance of initial water depth, sliding direction, and nearshore bathymetry. The worst-case scenario is capable of producing basin-wide tsunami, with maximum wave amplitudes reaching ~5 m near Hong Kong and Macau, 1–3 m in western Philippines, and at least 1 m along central Vietnam, southeast Hainan, and southern Taiwan. The most noticeable phenomenon we observed is that the southern Chinese coast is the hardest-hit region in all the simulated scenarios regardless of the diverse slide features. We conclude that the persistence of high tsunami impact is caused by the unique bathymetric feature of the wide continental shelf in front of southern China

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Supplementary data: The following is the Supplementary data to this article: Acrobat PDF file (2MB) available at: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212420921007329-mmc1.pdfCopyright © 2022 The Authors. Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures.COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology); Royal Society, UK (grant number CHL\R1\180173); Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (CEX 2018-000797-S) funded by MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033; Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute

The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.publishedVersio

Submarine record of volcanic island construction and collapse in the Lesser Antilles arc: First scientific drilling of submarine volcanic island landslides by IODP Expedition 340

IODP Expedition 340 successfully drilled a series of sites offshore Montserrat, Martinique and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles from March to April 2012. These are among the few drill sites gathered around volcanic islands, and the first scientific drilling of large and likely tsunamigenic volcanic island-arc landslide deposits. These cores provide evidence and tests of previous hypotheses for the composition and origin of those deposits. Sites U1394, U1399, and U1400 that penetrated landslide deposits recovered exclusively seafloor-sediment, comprising mainly turbidites and hemipelagic deposits, and lacked debris avalanche deposits. This supports the concepts that i/ volcanic debris avalanches tend to stop at the slope break, and ii/ widespread and voluminous failures of pre-existing low-gradient seafloor sediment can be triggered by initial emplacement of material from the volcano. Offshore Martinique (U1399 and 1400), the landslide deposits comprised blocks of parallel strata that were tilted or micro-faulted, sometimes separated by intervals of homogenized sediment (intense shearing), while Site U1394 offshore Montserrat penetrated a flat-lying block of intact strata. The most likely mechanism for generating these large-scale seafloor-sediment failures appears to be propagation of a decollement from proximal areas loaded and incised by a volcanic debris avalanche. These results have implications for the magnitude of tsunami generation. Under some conditions, volcanic island landslide deposits comprised of mainly seafloor sediment will tend to form smaller magnitude tsunamis than equivalent volumes of subaerial block-rich mass flows rapidly entering water. Expedition 340 also successfully drilled sites to access the undisturbed record of eruption fallout layers intercalated with marine sediment which provide an outstanding high-resolution dataset to analyze eruption and landslides cycles, improve understanding of magmatic evolution as well as offshore sedimentation processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Simulating run-up on steep slopes with operational Boussinesq models; capabilities, spurious effects and instabilities

Tsunamis induced by rock slides plunging into fjords constitute a severe threat to local coastal communities. The rock slide impact may give rise to highly non-linear waves in the near field, and because the wave lengths are relatively short, frequency dispersion comes into play. Fjord systems are rugged with steep slopes, and modeling non-linear dispersive waves in this environment with simultaneous run-up is demanding. We have run an operational Boussinesq-type TVD (total variation diminishing) model using different run-up formulations. Two different tests are considered, inundation on steep slopes and propagation in a trapezoidal channel. In addition, a set of Lagrangian models serves as reference models. Demanding test cases with solitary waves with amplitudes ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 were applied, and slopes were ranging from 10 to 50°. Different run-up formulations yielded clearly different accuracy and stability, and only some provided similar accuracy as the reference models. The test cases revealed that the model was prone to instabilities for large non-linearity and fine resolution. Some of the instabilities were linked with false breaking during the first positive inundation, which was not observed for the reference models. None of the models were able to handle the bore forming during drawdown, however. The instabilities are linked to short-crested undulations on the grid scale, and appear on fine resolution during inundation. As a consequence, convergence was not always obtained. It is reason to believe that the instability may be a general problem for Boussinesq models in fjords