Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts

Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Comment on ‘The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment’

Pycroft et al. (Environ Resour Econ 1–29, 2015) used incorrect and outdated data to study the economic impact of sea level rise. Theymisinterpret some of their input data, and fail to exploit the strengths of their computable general equilibrium model and previously developed methods to study impacts and adaptation

Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states

Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea level rise impacts and coastal zone protection

Climate change impacts on coastal zones could be significant unless adaptation is undertaken. One particular macro-economic dimension of sea level rise (SLR) impacts that has received no attention so far is the potential stress of SLR impacts on public budgets. Adaptation will require increased public expenditure to protect assets at risk and could put additional stress on public budgets. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of SLR adaptation and impacts on public budgets. We include fiscal indicators in a climate change impact assessment focusing on SLR impacts and adaptation costs using a computable general equilibrium model extended with a detailed description of the public sector. Coastal protection expenditure is financed issuing government bonds, meaning that coastal adaptation places an additional burden on public budgets. SLR impacts are examined using several scenarios linked to three different Representative Concentration Pathways: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, and two Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP2 and SSP5. Future projections of direct damages of mean and extreme SLR and adaptation costs are generated by the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment framework. Without adaptation, all world regions suffer a loss and public deficits increase respect to the reference scenario. Higher deficits imply higher government borrowing from household savings reducing available resources for private investments therefore decreasing capital accumulation and growth. Adaptation benefits result from two mechanisms: i) the avoided direct impacts, and ii) a reduced public deficit effect. This allows for an increased capital accumulation, suggesting that support to adaptation in deficit spending might trigger positive effects on public finance sustainability

Assessing the Prospects for Achieving Double-Shell Ignition on the National Ignition Facility Using Vacuum Hohlraums

The goal of demonstrating ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) has motivated a revisit of double-shell (DS) targets as a complementary path to the cryogenic baseline approach. Expected benefits of DS ignition targets include non-cryogenic deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel preparation, minimal hohlraum-plasma mediated laser backscatter, low threshold ignition temperatures ({approx} 4 keV) for relaxed hohlraum x-ray flux asymmetry tolerances, and minimal (two-) shock timing requirements. On the other hand, DS ignition presents several formidable challenges, encompassing room-temperature containment of high-pressure DT ({approx} 790 atm) in the inner shell, strict concentricity requirements on the two shells (< 3 {micro}m), development of nano-porous (<100 nm) low-density (<100 mg/cc) metallic foams for structural support of the inner shell and hydrodynamic instability mitigation, and effective control of hydrodynamic instabilities on the high-Atwood number interface between the DT fuel and the high-Z inner shell. Recent progress in DS ignition designs and required materials-science advances at the nanoscale are described herein. Two new ignition designs that use rugby-shaped vacuum hohlraums are presented which utilize either 1 MJ or 2 MJ of laser energy at 3{omega}. The capability of the NIF to generate the requested reverse-ramp pulse shape for DS ignition is expected to be comparable to the planned high-contrast ({approx}100) pulse-shape at 1.8 MJ for the baseline cryogenic target. Nano-crystalline, high-strength, Au-Cu alloy inner shells are under development using electrochemical deposition over a glass mandrel, exhibiting tensile strengths well in excess of 790 atm. Novel, low-density (85 mg/cc) copper foams have recently been demonstrated using 10 mg/cc SiO{sub 2} nano-porous aerogels with suspended Cu particles. A prototype demonstration of an ignition DS is planned for 2008, incorporating the needed novel nano-materials science developments and the required fabrication tolerances for a realistic ignition attempt after 2010

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs

The Grizzly, November 9, 1984

Program Board Attends Activities Conference • Fraternity Sponsors Thanksgiving Food Drive • Smith Addresses Value of Liberal Arts • Editorials: Newspaper Reflects Campus News and Views; Pulling the Big Lever • Letters to the Editor: Mock Election Coverage Questioned; Intervention Policy Must Go • College Bowl Season Underway • Ursinus in a Box • Shorts: Ec. Council Programs; Photo Exhibit in Library; Turkey Trot; UPB Trips Scheduled; Dutch Folk Songs; USGA Report • Bear Booters Win ECA Conference Bid • Runners Second in MAC\u27s • A Student\u27s View of The Training Facility • Mers Shine at Relay Carnival • Middle East Forum Scheduled • Theater Review: A Thurber Carnival • Student Teachers Hard at Work • News of Yesteryear: Judy Collins to Appear in Concert at Ursinushttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1127/thumbnail.jp