Seismic Response to Injection Well Stimulation in a High-Temperature, High-Permeability Reservoir

Fluid injection into the Earth's crust can induce seismic events that cause damage to local infrastructure but also offer valuable insight into seismogenesis. The factors that influence the magnitude, location, and number of induced events remain poorly understood but include injection flow rate and pressure as well as reservoir temperature and permeability. The relationship between injection parameters and injection-induced seismicity in high-temperature, high-permeability reservoirs has not been extensively studied. Here we focus on the Ngatamariki geothermal field in the central Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, where three stimulation/injection tests have occurred since 2012. We present a catalog of seismicity from 2012 to 2015 created using a matched-filter detection technique. We analyze the stress state in the reservoir during the injection tests from first motion-derived focal mechanisms, yielding an average direction of maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) consistent with the regional NE-SW trend. However, there is significant variation in the direction of maximum compressive stress (σ1), which may reflect geological differences between wells. We use the ratio of injection flow rate to overpressure, referred to as injectivity index, as a proxy for near-well permeability and compare changes in injectivity index to spatiotemporal characteristics of seismicity accompanying each test. Observed increases in injectivity index are generally poorly correlated with seismicity, suggesting that the locations of microearthquakes are not coincident with the zone of stimulation (i.e., increased permeability). Our findings augment a growing body of work suggesting that aseismic opening or slip, rather than seismic shear, is the active process driving well stimulation in many environments

Prevalence and Impact of Concomitant Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: Concomitant atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an adverse prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, it remains unclear whether this is due to a causal effect of AF or whether AF acts as a surrogate marker for comorbidities in this population. Furthermore, there are limited data on whether coronary artery disease distribution impacts the risk of developing AF. Methods: Consecutive patients admitted with acute MI and treated using percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at a single centre were retrospectively identified. Associations between AF and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) over a median of five years of follow-up were assessed using Cox regression, with adjustment for confounding factors performed using both multivariable modelling and a propensity-score-matched analysis. Results: AF was identified in N = 65/1000 (6.5%) of cases; these patients were significantly older (mean: 73 vs. 65 years, p < 0.001), with lower creatinine clearance (p < 0.001), and were more likely to have a history of cerebrovascular disease (p = 0.011) than those without AF. In addition, patients with AF had a greater propensity for left main stem (p = 0.001) or left circumflex artery (p = 0.004) involvement. Long-term MACCE rates were significantly higher in the AF group than in the non-AF group (50.8% vs. 34.2% at five years), yielding an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.32–2.64, p < 0.001). However, after adjustment for confounding factors, AF was no longer independently associated with MACCEs, either on multivariable (adjusted HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.81–1.92, p = 0.319) or propensity-score-matched (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.59–1.82, p = 0.886) analyses. Conclusions: AF is observed in 6.5% of patients admitted with acute MI, and those with AF are more likely to have significant diseases involving left main or circumflex arteries. Although unadjusted MACCE rates were significantly higher in patients with AF, this effect was not found to remain significant after adjustment for comorbidities. As such, this study provided no evidence to suggest that AF is independently associated with MACCEs

Uncovering treatment burden as a key concept for stroke care: a systematic review of qualitative research

<b>Background</b> Patients with chronic disease may experience complicated management plans requiring significant personal investment. This has been termed ‘treatment burden’ and has been associated with unfavourable outcomes. The aim of this systematic review is to examine the qualitative literature on treatment burden in stroke from the patient perspective.<p></p> <b>Methods and findings</b> The search strategy centred on: stroke, treatment burden, patient experience, and qualitative methods. We searched: Scopus, CINAHL, Embase, Medline, and PsycINFO. We tracked references, footnotes, and citations. Restrictions included: English language, date of publication January 2000 until February 2013. Two reviewers independently carried out the following: paper screening, data extraction, and data analysis. Data were analysed using framework synthesis, as informed by Normalization Process Theory. Sixty-nine papers were included. Treatment burden includes: (1) making sense of stroke management and planning care, (2) interacting with others, (3) enacting management strategies, and (4) reflecting on management. Health care is fragmented, with poor communication between patient and health care providers. Patients report inadequate information provision. Inpatient care is unsatisfactory, with a perceived lack of empathy from professionals and a shortage of stimulating activities on the ward. Discharge services are poorly coordinated, and accessing health and social care in the community is difficult. The study has potential limitations because it was restricted to studies published in English only and data from low-income countries were scarce.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Stroke management is extremely demanding for patients, and treatment burden is influenced by micro and macro organisation of health services. Knowledge deficits mean patients are ill equipped to organise their care and develop coping strategies, making adherence less likely. There is a need to transform the approach to care provision so that services are configured to prioritise patient needs rather than those of health care systems

Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress

Mechanical effects of left ventricular midwall fibrosis in non-ischemic cardiomyopathy

Background: Left ventricular (LV) mid-wall fibrosis (MWF), which occurs in about a quarter of patients with non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM), is associated with high risk of pump failure. The mid LV wall is the site of circumferential myocardial fibers. We sought to determine the effect of MWF on LV myocardial mechanics. Methods: Patients with NICM (n = 116; age: 62.8 ± 13.2 years; 67 % male) underwent late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and were categorized according to the presence (+) or absence (-) of MWF. Feature tracking (FT) CMR was used to assess myocardial deformation. Results: Despite a similar LVEF (24.3 vs 27.5 %, p = 0.20), patients with MWF (32 [24 %]) had lower global circumferential strain (εcc: -6.6 % vs -9.4 %, P = 0.004), but similar longitudinal (εll: -7.6 % vs. -9.4 %, p = 0.053) and radial (εrr: 14.6 % vs. 17.8 % p = 0.18) strain. Compared with - MWF, + MWF was associated with reduced LV systolic, circumferential strain rate (-0.38 ± 0.1 vs -0.56 ± 0.3 s-1, p = 0.005) and peak LV twist (4.65 vs. 6.31°, p = 0.004), as well as rigid LV body rotation (64 % vs 28 %, P cc: 0.34 vs. 0.46 s-1; DSRll: 0.38 vs. 0.50s-1; DSRrr: -0.55 vs. -0.75 s-1; all

Novel United Kingdom prognostic model for 30-day mortality following transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Objective Existing clinical prediction models (CPM) for short-term mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have limited applicability in the UK due to moderate predictive performance and inconsistent recording practices across registries. The aim of this study was to derive a UK-TAVI CPM to predict 30-day mortality risk for benchmarking purposes. Methods A two-step modelling strategy was undertaken: first, data from the UK-TAVI Registry between 2009 and 2014 were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression CPM using backwards stepwise regression. Second, model-updating techniques were applied using the 2013–2014 data, thereby leveraging new approaches to include frailty and to ensure the model was reflective of contemporary practice. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping to estimate in-sample optimism-corrected performance. Results Between 2009 and 2014, up to 6339 patients were included across 34 centres in the UK-TAVI Registry (mean age, 81.3; 2927 female (46.2%)). The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.14%. The final UK-TAVI CPM included 15 risk factors, which included two variables associated with frailty. After correction for in-sample optimism, the model was well calibrated, with a calibration intercept of 0.02 (95% CI −0.17 to 0.20) and calibration slope of 0.79 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.03). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, after adjustment for in-sample optimism, was 0.66. Conclusion The UK-TAVI CPM demonstrated strong calibration and moderate discrimination in UK-TAVI patients. This model shows potential for benchmarking, but even the inclusion of frailty did not overcome the need for more wide-ranging data and other outcomes might usefully be explored

Response to symptoms of stroke in the UK: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The English National Stroke Strategy suggests that there is a need to improve the response of patients and witnesses to the symptoms of acute stroke to increase rapid access to specialist care. We wished to review the evidence base regarding the knowledge, attitudes and behaviours of stroke patients, witnesses and the public to the symptoms of stroke and the need for an urgent response at the onset of symptoms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic review of UK articles reporting empirical research on a) awareness of and response to the symptoms of acute stroke or TIA, and b) beliefs and attitudes about diagnosis, early treatment and consequences of acute stroke or TIA. Nine electronic databases were searched using a robust search strategy. Citations and abstracts were screened independently by two reviewers. Data were extracted by two researchers independently using agreed criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>11 studies out of 7144 citations met the inclusion criteria. Methods of data collection included: postal survey (n = 2); interview survey (n = 6); review of hospital documentation (n = 2) and qualitative interviews (n = 1). Limited data reveal a good level of knowledge of the two commonest stroke symptoms (unilateral weakness and speech disturbance), and of the need for an emergency response among the general public and at risk patients. Despite this, less than half of patients recognised they had suffered a stroke. Symptom recognition did not reduce time to presentation. For the majority, the first point of contact for medical assistance was a general practitioner.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There is an assumption that, in the UK, public knowledge of the symptoms of stroke and of the need for an emergency response is lacking, but there is little published research to support this. Public awareness raising campaigns to improve response to the symptoms of stroke therefore may not produce an increase in desired behaviours. Further research is needed to understand why people who experience or witness stroke symptoms frequently do not call emergency services.</p