Projected Deaths of Despair from COVID-19

More Americans could lose their lives to deaths of despair, deaths due to drug, alcohol, and suicide, if we do not do something immediately. Deaths of despair have been on the rise for the last decade, and in the context of COVID-19, deaths of despair should be seen as the epidemic within the pandemic. The goal of this report is to predict what deaths of despair we might see based on three assumptions during COVID-19: economic recovery, relationship between deaths of despair and unemployment, and geography. Across nine different scenarios, additional deaths of despair range from 27,644 (quick recovery, smallest impact of unemployment on deaths of despair) to 154,037 (slow recovery, greatest impact of unemployment on deaths of despair), with somewhere in the middle being around 68,000. However, these data are predictions. We can prevent these deaths by taking meaningful and comprehensive action as a nation

An FTIR spectrometer for remote measurements of atmospheric composition

The JPL IV interferometer, and infrared Michelson interferometer, was built specifically for recording high resolution solar absorption spectra from remote ground-based sites, aircraft and from stratospheric balloons. The instrument is double-passed, with one fixed and one moving corner reflector, allowing up to 200-cm of optical path difference (corresponding to an unapodised spectral resolution of 0.003/cm). The carriage which holds the moving reflector is driven by a flexible nut riding on a lead screw. This arrangement, together with the double-passed optical scheme, makes the instrument resistant to the effects of mechanical distortion and shock. The spectral range of the instrument is covered by two liquid nitrogen-cooled detectors: an InSb photodiode is used for the shorter wavelengths (1.85 to 5.5 microns, 1,800 to 5,500/cm) and a HgCdTe photoconductor for the range (5.5 to 15 microns, 650 to 1,800/cm). For a single spectrum of 0.01/cm resolution, which requires a scan time of 105 seconds, the signal/noise ratio is typically 800:1 over the entire wavelength range

Faecal pathogen flows and their public health risks in urban environments: A proposed approach to inform sanitation planning

© 2018 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Public health benefits are often a key political driver of urban sanitation investment in developing countries, however, pathogen flows are rarely taken systematically into account in sanitation investment choices. While several tools and approaches on sanitation and health risks have recently been developed, this research identified gaps in their ability to predict faecal pathogen flows, to relate exposure risks to the existing sanitation services, and to compare expected impacts of improvements. This paper outlines a conceptual approach that links faecal waste discharge patterns with potential pathogen exposure pathways to quantitatively compare urban sanitation improvement options. An illustrative application of the approach is presented, using a spreadsheet-based model to compare the relative effect on disability-adjusted life years of six sanitation improvement options for a hypothetical urban situation. The approach includes consideration of the persistence or removal of different pathogen classes in different environments; recognition of multiple interconnected sludge and effluent pathways, and of multiple potential sites for exposure; and use of quantitative microbial risk assessment to support prediction of relative health risks for each option. This research provides a step forward in applying current knowledge to better consider public health, alongside environmental and other objectives, in urban sanitation decision making. Further empirical research in specific locations is now required to refine the approach and address data gaps

Microbial risk assessment of drinking water based on hydrodynamic modelling of pathogen concentrations in source water

Norovirus contamination of drinking water sources is an important cause of waterborne disease outbreaks. Knowledge on pathogen concentrations in source water is needed to assess the ability of a drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) to provide safe drinking water. However, pathogen enumeration in source water samples is often not sufficient to describe the source water quality. In this study, the norovirus concentrations were characterised at the contamination source, i.e. in sewage discharges. Then, the transport of norovirus within the water source (the river Gota alv in Sweden) under different loading conditions was simulated using a hydrodynamic model. Based on the estimated concentrations in source water, the required reduction of norovirus at the DWTP was calculated using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The required reduction was compared with the estimated treatment performance at the DWTP. The average estimated concentration in source water varied between 4.8 x 10(2) and 7.5 x 10(3) genome equivalents L-1; and the average required reduction by treatment was between 7.6 and 8.8 Log(10). The treatment performance at the DWTP was estimated to be adequate to deal with all tested loading conditions, but was heavily dependent on chlorine disinfection, with the risk of poor reduction by conventional treatment and slow sand filtration. To our knowledge, this is the first article to employ discharge-based QMRA, combined with hydrodynamic modelling, in the context of drinking water. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

From Top to Bottom - the Multiwavelength Campaign of V824 Ara (HD 155555)

A great deal of progress has been made in recent years in decomposing the 2-D structure in the atmospheres of late-type stars. Doppler images of many photospheres single stars, T Tauri stars, Algols, RS CV(sub n) binaries to name a few - are regularly published (Strassmeier 1996; Richards and Albright 1996; Rice and Strassmeier 1996; Kuerster et al. 1994). Ultraviolet spectral images of chromospheres appear in the literature (e.g., Walter et al. 1987; Neff et al. 1989) but are less common owing to the difficult nature of obtaining complete phase coverage. Zeeman doppler images of magnetic fields are now feasible (e.g., Donati et al. 1992). Performing Doppler imaging of the same targets over many seasons has also been accomplished (e.g, Vogt et al. 1997). Even when a true image reconstruction is not possible due to poor spectral resolution, we can still infer a great deal about spatial structure if enough phases are observed. However, it is increasingly apparent that to make sense of recent results, many different spectral features spanning a range of formation temperature and density must be observed simultaneously for a coherent picture to emerge. Here we report on one such campaign. In 1996, we observed the southern hemisphere RS CV(sub n) binary V824 Ara (P=1(sup d).68, G5IV+K0V-IV-IV) over one complete stellar rotation with the Hubble Space Telescope and EUVE. In conjunction, radio and optical photometry and spectroscopy were obtained from the ground. Unique to this campaign is the complete phase coverage of a number of activity proxy indicators that cover source temperatures ranging from the photosphere to the corona

Cold Plasma Dispersion Relations in the Vicinity of a Schwarzschild Black Hole Horizon

We apply the ADM 3+1 formalism to derive the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic equations for cold plasma in spatially flat Schwarzschild metric. Respective perturbed equations are linearized for non-magnetized and magnetized plasmas both in non-rotating and rotating backgrounds. These are then Fourier analyzed and the corresponding dispersion relations are obtained. These relations are discussed for the existence of waves with positive angular frequency in the region near the horizon. Our results support the fact that no information can be extracted from the Schwarzschild black hole. It is concluded that negative phase velocity propagates in the rotating background whether the black hole is rotating or non-rotating.Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures accepted for publication in Gen. Relat. & Gravi

Implications of nonlinearity for spherically symmetric accretion

We subject the steady solutions of a spherically symmetric accretion flow to a time-dependent radial perturbation. The equation of the perturbation includes nonlinearity up to any arbitrary order, and bears a form that is very similar to the metric equation of an analogue acoustic black hole. Casting the perturbation as a standing wave on subsonic solutions, and maintaining nonlinearity in it up to the second order, we get the time-dependence of the perturbation in the form of a Li\'enard system. A dynamical systems analysis of the Li\'enard system reveals a saddle point in real time, with the implication that instabilities will develop in the accreting system when the perturbation is extended into the nonlinear regime. The instability of initial subsonic states also adversely affects the temporal evolution of the flow towards a final and stable transonic state.Comment: 14 pages, ReVTeX. Substantially revised with respect to the previous version. Three figures and a new section (Sec. VI) adde

The laurentian record of neoproterozoic glaciation, tectonism, and eukaryotic evolution in Death Vally, California

Neoproterozoic strata in Death Valley, California contain eukaryotic microfossils and glacial deposits that have been used to assess the severity of putative Snowball Earth events and the biological response to extreme environmental change. These successions also contain evidence for syn-sedimentary faulting that has been related to the rifting of Rodinia, and in turn the tectonic context of the onset of Snowball Earth. These interpretations hinge on local geological relationships and both regional and global stratigraphic correlations. Here we present new geological mapping, measured stratigraphic sections, carbon and strontium isotope chemostratigraphy, and micropaleontology from the Neoproterozoic glacial deposits and bounding strata in Death Valley. These new data enable us to refine regional correlations both across Death Valley and throughout Laurentia, and construct a new age model for glaciogenic strata and microfossil assemblages. Particularly, our remapping of the Kingston Peak Formation in the Saddle Peak Hills and near the type locality shows for the first time that glacial deposits of both the Marinoan and Sturtian glaciations can be distinguished in southeastern Death Valley, and that beds containing vase-shaped microfossils are slump blocks derived from the underlying strata. These slump blocks are associated with multiple overlapping unconformities that developed during syn-sedimentary faulting, which is a common feature of Cyrogenian strata along the margin of Laurentia from California to Alaska. With these data, we conclude that all of the microfossils that have been described to date in Neoproterozoic strata of Death Valley predate the glaciations and do not bear on the severity, extent or duration of Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events

Secular instability in quasi-viscous disc accretion

A first-order correction in the $\alpha$-viscosity parameter of Shakura and Sunyaev has been introduced in the standard inviscid and thin accretion disc. A linearised time-dependent perturbative study of the stationary solutions of this "quasi-viscous" disc leads to the development of a secular instability on large spatial scales. This qualitative feature is equally manifest for two different types of perturbative treatment -- a standing wave on subsonic scales, as well as a radially propagating wave. Stability of the flow is restored when viscosity disappears.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, AASTeX. Added some new material and upgraded the reference lis