A parameterization of convective dust storms for models with mass-flux convective schemes

Cold pool outflows, generated by downdrafts from moist convection, can generate strong winds and therefore uplift of mineral dust. These so-called “haboob” convective dust storms occur over all major dust source areas worldwide and contribute substantially to emissions in northern Africa, the world’s largest source. Most large-scale models lack convective dust storms, because they do not resolve moist convection, relying instead on convection schemes. We suggest a parameterization of convective dust storms to account for their contribution in such large-scale models. The parameterization is based on a simple conceptual model, in which the downdraft mass flux from the convection scheme spreads out radially in a cylindrical cold pool. The parameterization is tested with a set of Unified Model runs for June and July 2006 over West Africa. It is calibrated with a convection-permitting run, and applied to a convection-parameterized run. The parameterization successfully produces the extensive area of dust-generating winds from cold pool outflows over the southern Sahara. However, this area extends farther to the east and dust generating winds occur earlier in the day than in the convection-permitting run. These biases are due to biases in the convection scheme. It is found that the location and timing of dust-generating winds are weakly sensitive to the parameters of the conceptual model. The results demonstrate that a simple parameterization has the potential to correct a major and long-standing limitation in global dust models

Angular momentum transport by internal gravity waves III - Wave excitation by core convection and the Coriolis effect

This is the third in a series of papers that deal with angular momentum transport by internal gravity waves. We concentrate on the waves excited by core convection in a 3Msun, Pop I main sequence star. Here, we want to examine the role of the Coriolis acceleration in the equations of motion that describe the behavior of waves and to evaluate its impact on angular momentum transport. We use the so-called traditional approximation of geophysics, which allows variable separation in radial and horizontal components. In the presence of rotation, the horizontal structure is described by Hough functions instead of spherical harmonics. The Coriolis acceleration has two main effects on waves. It transforms pure gravity waves into gravito-inertial waves that have a larger amplitude closer to the equator, and it introduces new waves whose restoring force is mainly the conservation of vorticity. Taking the Coriolis acceleration into account changes the subtle balance between prograde and retrograde waves in non-rotating stars. It also introduces new types of waves that are either purely prograde or retrograde. We show in this paper where the local deposition of angular momentum by such waves is important.Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication by A&

Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe

A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones

Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979-2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their confidence level (defined by the number of contributing CDTMs), it is shown that the higher the confidence level, the more intense and long-lasting cyclones are produced. Given the advantage of our methodology in producing cyclone tracks with physically meaningful and distinctive life stages, we propose composite tracks as reference datasets for climatological research in the Mediterranean. The Supplement provides the composite Mediterranean tracks for all confidence levels, and in the conclusion we discuss their adequate use for scientific research and applications

Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

On 18 September 2020, Medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece, resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave–current model to an unstructured mesh, representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty in modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed an ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localized at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves, highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model and multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan.</p

A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones

Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979–2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their confidence level (defined by the number of contributing CDTMs), it is shown that the higher the confidence level, the more intense and long-lasting cyclones are produced. Given the advantage of our methodology in producing cyclone tracks with physically meaningful and distinctive life stages, we propose composite tracks as reference datasets for climatological research in the Mediterranean. The Supplement provides the composite Mediterranean tracks for all confidence levels, and in the conclusion we discuss their adequate use for scientific research and applications.</p

Overview and first results of the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX): a field campaign to observe the formation of gusts using a Doppler lidar

Wind gusts are responsible for most damages in winter storms over central Europe, but capturing their small scale and short duration is a challenge for both models and observations. This motivated the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) dedicated to investigate the formation of gusts during the passage of extratropical cyclones. The field campaign took place during the winter 2016–2017 on a former waste deposit located close to Karlsruhe in the Upper Rhine Valley in southwest Germany. Twelve extratropical cyclones were sampled during WASTEX with a Doppler lidar system performing vertical scans in the mean wind direction and complemented with a Doppler C-band radar and a 200 m instrumented tower. First results are provided here for the three most intense storms and include a potential sting jet, a unique direct observation of a convective gust and coherent boundary-layer structures of strong winds

Angular Momentum Transport in the Sun's Radiative Zone by Gravito-Inertial Waves

International audienceInternal gravity waves constitute an efficient process for angular momentum transport over large distances. They are now seen as an important ingredient in understanding the evolution of stellar rotation and can explain the Sun's quasi-flat internal-rotation profile. Because the Sun's rotation frequency is of the same order as that of the waves, it is now necessary to refine our description of wave propagation and to take into account the action of the Coriolis acceleration in a coherent way. To achieve this goal, we adopt the traditional approximation, which can be applied to stellar radiation zones under conditions that are given. We present the modified transport equations and their numerical evaluation in a parameter range that is significant for the Sun. Consequences for the transport of angular momentum inside solar and stellar radiative regions are discussed

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the Midlatitude Flow, Downstream Impacts, and Implications for Predictability

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1This review was partly initiated at the World Meteorological Organization’s Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones in 2014.The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the dynamical and physical processes that govern this impact and highlights the relationship of downstream development during ET to highimpact weather, with a focus on downstreamregions. It updates a previous review from2003 and identifies new and emerging challenges and future research needs. First, the mechanisms through which the transitioning cyclone impacts the midlatitude flow in its immediate vicinity are discussed. This ‘‘direct impact’’manifests in the formation of a jet streak and the amplification of a ridge directly downstream of the cyclone. This initial flow modification triggers or amplifies amidlatitude Rossby wave packet,which disperses the impact ofETinto downstream regions (downstream impact) and may contribute to the formation of high-impact weather. Details are provided concerning the impact of ET on forecast uncertainty in downstream regions and on the impact of observations on forecast skill. The sources and characteristics of the following key features and processes thatmay determine the manifestation of the impact of ET on the midlatitude flow are discussed: the upper-tropospheric divergent outflow, mainly associated with latent heat release in the troposphere below, and the phasing between the transitioning cyclone and the midlatitude wave pattern. Improving the representation of diabatic processes during ET in models and a climatological assessment of the ET’s impact on downstream high-impact weather are examples for future research directions.German Science Foundation (DFG)Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) PZ00P2_148177/1Helmholtz Association VH-NG-1243Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB/TRR 165NSF AGS-1240502NSF AGS- 1355960NRL Base Program PE 0601153NONR PE 0602435NAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence CE110001028NSF ATM-1461753ONR N00014091052