Methods for Agricultural Policy Analysis: An Overview

This article summarizes the articles that have been presented at the Workshop on Methods for Agricultural Policy Analysis held at UP Los Baños on August 13-14, 1985. It has four parts: the farm production/productivity change, the food consumption, the rural/ agricultural households in imperfect market settings and the methodologies for combining partial and general equilibrium framework.economic/development modelling, computable general equilibrium (CGE), agriculture sector

Scale Development for Perceived School Climate for Girls’ Physical Activity

Objectives: To test an original scale assessing perceived school climate for girls\u27 physical activity in middle school girls. Methods: Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results: CFA retained 5 of 14 original items. A model with 2 correlated factors, perceptions about teachers\u27 and boys\u27 behaviors, respectively, fit the data well in both sixth and eighth-graders. SEM detected a positive, significant direct association of the teacher factor, but not the boy factor, with girls\u27 self-reported physical activity. Conclusions:School climate for girls\u27 physical activity is a measurable construct, and preliminary evidence suggests a relationship with physical activity

Scale Development for Perceived School Climate for Girls’ Physical Activity

Objectives: To test an original scale assessing perceived school climate for girls\u27 physical activity in middle school girls. Methods: Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results: CFA retained 5 of 14 original items. A model with 2 correlated factors, perceptions about teachers\u27 and boys\u27 behaviors, respectively, fit the data well in both sixth and eighth-graders. SEM detected a positive, significant direct association of the teacher factor, but not the boy factor, with girls\u27 self-reported physical activity. Conclusions: School climate for girls\u27 physical activity is a measurable construct, and preliminary evidence suggests a relationship with physical activity

Prospective Association of Daily Steps with Cardiovascular Disease: A Harmonized Meta-Analysis

Background: Taking fewer than the widely promoted “10 000 steps per day” has recently been associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. The relationship of steps and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains poorly described. A meta-analysis examining the dose–response relationship between steps per day and CVD can help inform clinical and public health guidelines. Methods: Eight prospective studies (20 152 adults [ie, ≥18 years of age]) were included with device-measured steps and participants followed for CVD events. Studies quantified steps per day and CVD events were defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were completed using study-specific quartiles and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI were meta-analyzed with inverse-variance–weighted random effects models. Results: The mean age of participants was 63.2±12.4 years and 52% were women. The mean follow-up was 6.2 years (123 209 person-years), with a total of 1523 CVD events (12.4 per 1000 participant-years) reported. There was a significant difference in the association of steps per day and CVD between older (ie, ≥60 years of age) and younger adults (ie, <60 years of age). For older adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93), 0.62 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74), and 0.51 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.63) compared with the lowest quartile. For younger adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.46 to 1.35), 0.90 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.25), and 0.95 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.61 to 1.48) compared with the lowest quartile. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a nonlinear association whereby more steps were associated with decreased risk of CVD among older adults. Conclusions: For older adults, taking more daily steps was associated with a progressively decreased risk of CVD. Monitoring and promoting steps per day is a simple metric for clinician–patient communication and population health to reduce the risk of CVD

Daily steps and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of 15 international cohorts

Background Although 10000 steps per day is widely promoted to have health benefits, there is little evidence to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the association between number of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. Methods In this meta-analysis, we identified studies investigating the effect of daily step count on all-cause mortality in adults (aged ≥18 years), via a previously published systematic review and expert knowledge of the field. We asked participating study investigators to process their participant-level data following a standardised protocol. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality collected from death certificates and country registries. We analysed the dose– response association of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. We did Cox proportional hazards regression analyses using study-specific quartiles of steps per day and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) with inversevariance weighted random effects models. Findings We identified 15 studies, of which seven were published and eight were unpublished, with study start dates between 1999 and 2018. The total sample included 47 471 adults, among whom there were 3013 deaths (10·1 per 1000 participant-years) over a median follow-up of 7·1 years ([IQR 4·3–9·9]; total sum of follow-up across studies was 297 837 person-years). Quartile median steps per day were 3553 for quartile 1, 5801 for quartile 2, 7842 for quartile 3, and 10 901 for quartile 4. Compared with the lowest quartile, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0·60 (95% CI 0·51–0·71) for quartile 2, 0·55 (0·49–0·62) for quartile 3, and 0·47 (0·39–0·57) for quartile 4. Restricted cubic splines showed progressively decreasing risk of mortality among adults aged 60 years and older with increasing number of steps per day until 6000–8000 steps per day and among adults younger than 60 years until 8000–10000 steps per day. Adjusting for number of steps per day, comparing quartile 1 with quartile 4, the association between higher stepping rates and mortality was attenuated but remained significant for a peak of 30 min (HR 0·67 [95% CI 0·56–0·83]) and a peak of 60 min (0·67 [0·50–0·90]), but not significant for time (min per day) spent walking at 40 steps per min or faster (1·12 [0·96–1·32]) and 100 steps per min or faster (0·86 [0·58–1·28]). Interpretation Taking more steps per day was associated with a progressively lower risk of all-cause mortality, up to a level that varied by age. The findings from this meta-analysis can be used to inform step guidelines for public health promotion of physical activity

Daily steps and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of 15 international cohorts

Background Although 10 000 steps per day is widely promoted to have health benefits, there is little evidence to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the association between number of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. Methods In this meta-analysis, we identified studies investigating the effect of daily step count on all-cause mortality in adults (aged ≥18 years), via a previously published systematic review and expert knowledge of the field. We asked participating study investigators to process their participant-level data following a standardised protocol. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality collected from death certificates and country registries. We analysed the dose–response association of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. We did Cox proportional hazards regression analyses using study-specific quartiles of steps per day and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) with inverse-variance weighted random effects models. Findings We identified 15 studies, of which seven were published and eight were unpublished, with study start dates between 1999 and 2018. The total sample included 47 471 adults, among whom there were 3013 deaths (10·1 per 1000 participant-years) over a median follow-up of 7·1 years ([IQR 4·3–9·9]; total sum of follow-up across studies was 297 837 person-years). Quartile median steps per day were 3553 for quartile 1, 5801 for quartile 2, 7842 for quartile 3, and 10 901 for quartile 4. Compared with the lowest quartile, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0·60 (95% CI 0·51–0·71) for quartile 2, 0·55 (0·49–0·62) for quartile 3, and 0·47 (0·39–0·57) for quartile 4. Restricted cubic splines showed progressively decreasing risk of mortality among adults aged 60 years and older with increasing number of steps per day until 6000–8000 steps per day and among adults younger than 60 years until 8000–10 000 steps per day. Adjusting for number of steps per day, comparing quartile 1 with quartile 4, the association between higher stepping rates and mortality was attenuated but remained significant for a peak of 30 min (HR 0·67 [95% CI 0·56–0·83]) and a peak of 60 min (0·67 [0·50–0·90]), but not significant for time (min per day) spent walking at 40 steps per min or faster (1·12 [0·96–1·32]) and 100 steps per min or faster (0·86 [0·58–1·28]). Interpretation Taking more steps per day was associated with a progressively lower risk of all-cause mortality, up to a level that varied by age. The findings from this meta-analysis can be used to inform step guidelines for public health promotion of physical activity. Funding US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Effects of Chronic Exposure to an Environmentally Relevant Mixture of Brominated Flame Retardants on the Reproductive and Thyroid System in Adult Male Rats

Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) are incorporated into a wide variety of consumer products, are readily released into home and work environments, and are present in house dust. Studies using animal models have revealed that exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) may impair adult male reproductive function and thyroid hormone physiology. Such studies have generally characterized the outcome of acute or chronic exposure to a single BFR technical mixture or congener but not the impact of environmentally relevant BFR mixtures. We tested whether exposure to the BFRs found in house dust would have an adverse impact on the adult male rat reproductive system and thyroid function. Adult male Sprague Dawley rats were exposed to a complex BFR mixture composed of three commercial brominated diphenyl ethers (52.1% DE-71, 0.4% DE-79, and 44.2% decaBDE-209) and hexabromocyclododecane (3.3%), formulated to mimic the relative congener levels in house dust. BFRs were delivered in the diet at target doses of 0, 0.02, 0.2, 2, or 20 mg/kg/day for 70 days. Compared with controls, males exposed to the highest dose of BFRs displayed a significant increase in the weights of the kidneys and liver, which was accompanied by induction of CYP1A and CYP2B P450 hepatic drug–metabolizing enzymes. BFR exposure did not affect reproductive organ weights, serum testosterone levels, testicular function, or sperm DNA integrity. The highest dose caused thyroid toxicity as indicated by decreased serum thyroxine (T4) and hypertrophy of the thyroid gland epithelium. At lower doses, the thickness of the thyroid gland epithelium was reduced, but no changes in hormone levels (T4 and thyroid-stimulating hormone) were observed. Thus, exposure to BFRs affected liver and thyroid physiology but not male reproductive parameters

All-flavor constraints on nonstandard neutrino interactions and generalized matter potential with three years of IceCube DeepCore data

We report constraints on nonstandard neutrino interactions (NSI) from the observation of atmospheric neutrinos with IceCube, limiting all individual coupling strengths from a single dataset. Furthermore, IceCube is the first experiment to constrain flavor-violating and nonuniversal couplings simultaneously. Hypothetical NSI are generically expected to arise due to the exchange of a new heavy mediator particle. Neutrinos propagating in matter scatter off fermions in the forward direction with negligible momentum transfer. Hence the study of the matter effect on neutrinos propagating in the Earth is sensitive to NSI independently of the energy scale of new physics. We present constraints on NSI obtained with an all-flavor event sample of atmospheric neutrinos based on three years of IceCube DeepCore data. The analysis uses neutrinos arriving from all directions, with reconstructed energies between 5.6 GeV and 100 GeV. We report constraints on the individual NSI coupling strengths considered singly, allowing for complex phases in the case of flavor-violating couplings. This demonstrates that IceCube is sensitive to the full NSI flavor structure at a level competitive with limits from the global analysis of all other experiments. In addition, we investigate a generalized matter potential, whose overall scale and flavor structure are also constrained

A muon-track reconstruction exploiting stochastic losses for large-scale Cherenkov detectors

IceCube is a cubic-kilometer Cherenkov telescope operating at the South Pole. The main goal of IceCube is the detection of astrophysical neutrinos and the identification of their sources. High-energy muon neutrinos are observed via the secondary muons produced in charge current interactions with nuclei in the ice. Currently, the best performing muon track directional reconstruction is based on a maximum likelihood method using the arrival time distribution of Cherenkov photons registered by the experiment's photomultipliers. A known systematic shortcoming of the prevailing method is to assume a continuous energy loss along the muon track. However at energies $>1$ TeV the light yield from muons is dominated by stochastic showers. This paper discusses a generalized ansatz where the expected arrival time distribution is parametrized by a stochastic muon energy loss pattern. This more realistic parametrization of the loss profile leads to an improvement of the muon angular resolution of up to $20\%$ for through-going tracks and up to a factor 2 for starting tracks over existing algorithms. Additionally, the procedure to estimate the directional reconstruction uncertainty has been improved to be more robust against numerical errors

Characteristics of the diffuse astrophysical electron and tau neutrino flux with six years of IceCube high energy cascade data

We report on the first measurement of the astrophysical neutrino flux using particle showers (cascades) in IceCube data from 2010 -- 2015. Assuming standard oscillations, the astrophysical neutrinos in this dedicated cascade sample are dominated ($\sim 90 \%$) by electron and tau flavors. The flux, observed in the sensitive energy range from $16\,\mathrm{TeV}$ to $2.6\,\mathrm{PeV}$, is consistent with a single power-law model as expected from Fermi-type acceleration of high energy particles at astrophysical sources. We find the flux spectral index to be $\gamma=2.53\pm0.07$ and a flux normalization for each neutrino flavor of $\phi_{astro} = 1.66^{+0.25}_{-0.27}$ at $E_{0} = 100\, \mathrm{TeV}$, in agreement with IceCube's complementary muon neutrino results and with all-neutrino flavor fit results. In the measured energy range we reject spectral indices $\gamma\leq2.28$ at $\ge3\sigma$ significance level. Due to high neutrino energy resolution and low atmospheric neutrino backgrounds, this analysis provides the most detailed characterization of the neutrino flux at energies below $\sim100\,{\rm{TeV}}$ compared to previous IceCube results. Results from fits assuming more complex neutrino flux models suggest a flux softening at high energies and a flux hardening at low energies (p-value $\ge 0.06$). The sizable and smooth flux measured below $\sim 100\,{\rm{TeV}}$ remains a puzzle. In order to not violate the isotropic diffuse gamma-ray background as measured by the Fermi-LAT, it suggests the existence of astrophysical neutrino sources characterized by dense environments which are opaque to gamma-rays.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, includes supplementary materia