Investigation of a multi-layer perceptron network to model and control a non-linear system.

This thesis describes the development and implementation of an on-line optimal predictive controller incorporating a neural network model of a non-linear process. The scheme is based on a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural net-work as a modelling tool for a real non-linear, dual tank, liquid level process. A neural network process model is developed and evaluated firstly in simulation studies and then subsequently on the real process. During the development of the network model, the ability of the network to predict the process output multiple time steps ahead was investigated. This led to investigations into a number of important aspects such as the network topology, training algorithms, period of network training, model validation and conditioning of the process data. Once the development of the neural network model had been achieved, it was included into a predictive control scheme where an on-line comparison with a conventional three term controller was undertaken. Improvements in process control performance that can be achieved in practice using a neural control scheme are illustrated. Additionally, an insight into the dynamics and stability of the neural control scheme was obtained in a novel application of linear system identification techniques. The research shows that a technique of conditioning the process data, called spread encoding, enabled a neural network to accurately emulate the real process using only process input information and this facilitated accurate multi-step-ahead predictive control to be performed

Assessment of measurement of salivary urea by ATR-FTIR spectroscopy to screen for chronic kidney disease

Stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) are currently defined by estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and require measurement of serum creatinine concentrations. Previous studies have shown a good correlation between salivary and serum urea levels and the stage of CKD. However, quantitative salivary urea assays in current clinical use require costly and labour-intensive commercial kits which restricts the advantage of using saliva and limits wider applicability as a quick and easy means of assessing renal function. Attenuated total reflection Fourier-transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy has been shown to provide a potentially straightforward, reagent-free method for the identification of a range of disease-related biomarkers and is in current clinical use for analyses of the chemical composition of kidney stones. We assessed the feasibility of ATR-FTIR spectroscopy as an alternative method to measure salivary urea in patients with different stages of CKD. The ATR-FTIR spectra of dried saliva samples from 6 healthy controls and 20 CKD patients (stages 1-5) were analysed to provide their urea concentrations. The lower limit of detection of salivary urea by the ATR-FTIR spectroscopy method was 1-2 mM, at the lower end of the clinically-relevant range. Statistically significant differences in salivary urea concentrations were demonstrated between healthy subjects (4.1±0.5 mM) and patients with CKD stages 3-5 (CKD stage 3: 6.8±0.7 mM; CKD stage 4: 9.1±1 mM; CKD stage 5: 14.8±1.6 mM). These salivary urea concentrations correlated well with serum urea levels in the same patients measured by an automated analyser (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.71; p<0.001). The ability of the method to detect and stage CKD was assessed from the sensitivity and specificity parameters of a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that quantitation of salivary urea by ATR-FTIR spectroscopy could provide a viable tool for rapid and cost-effective diagnosis of stages 3-5 CKD

Hepatic retransplantation in cholestatic liver disease: Impact of the interval to retransplantation on survival and resource utilization

The aim of our study was to quantitatively assess the impact of hepatic retransplantation on patient and graft survival and resource utilization. We studied patients undergoing hepatic retransplantation among 447 transplant recipients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) at 3 transplantation centers. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for survival analysis. Measures of resource utilization included the duration of hospitalization, length of stay in the intensive care unit, and the duration of transplantation surgery. Forty-six (10.3%) patients received 2 or more grafts during the follow-up period (median, 2.8 years). Patients who underwent retransplantation had a 3.8-fold increase in the risk of death compared with those without retransplantation (P < .01). Retransplantation after an interval of greater than 30 days from the primary graft was associated with a 6.7-fold increase in the risk of death (P < .01). The survival following retransplantations performed 30 days or earlier was similar to primary transplantations. Resource utilization was higher in patients who underwent multiple consecutive transplantations, even after adjustment for the number of grafts during the hospitalization. Among cholestatic liver disease patients, poor survival following hepatic retransplantation is attributed to late retransplantations, namely those performed more than 30 days after the initial transplantation. While efforts must be made to improve the outcome following retransplantation, a more critical evaluation may be warranted for late retransplantation candidates

Correspondence: No substantial long-term bias in the Cenozoic benthic foraminifera oxygen-isotope record

Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A Spatial Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus Seropositivity in Domestic Ruminants in Tanzania

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an acute arthropod-borne viral zoonotic disease primarily occurring in Africa. Since RVF-like disease was reported in Tanzania in 1930, outbreaks of the disease have been reported mainly from the eastern ecosystem of the Great Rift Valley. This cross-sectional study was carried out to describe the variation in RVF virus (RVFV) seropositivity in domestic ruminants between selected villages in the eastern and western Rift Valley ecosystems in Tanzania, and identify potential risk factors. Three study villages were purposively selected from each of the two Rift Valley ecosystems. Serum samples from randomly selected domestic ruminants (n = 1,435) were tested for the presence of specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and M (IgM), using RVF enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay methods. Mixed effects logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the association between potential risk factors and RVFV seropositivity. The overall RVFV seroprevalence (n = 1,435) in domestic ruminants was 25.8% and species specific seroprevalence was 29.7%, 27.7% and 22.0% in sheep (n = 148), cattle (n = 756) and goats (n = 531), respectively. The odds of seropositivity were significantly higher in animals sampled from the villages in the eastern than those in the western Rift Valley ecosystem (OR = 1.88, CI: 1.41, 2.51; p<0.001), in animals sampled from villages with soils of good than those with soils of poor water holding capacity (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.58, 3.02; p< 0.001), and in animals which had been introduced than in animals born within the herd (OR = 5.08, CI: 2.74, 9.44; p< 0.001). Compared with animals aged 1-2 years, those aged 3 and 4-5 years had 3.40 (CI: 2.49, 4.64; p< 0.001) and 3.31 (CI: 2.27, 4.82, p< 0.001) times the odds of seropositivity. The findings confirm exposure to RVFV in all the study villages, but with a higher prevalence in the study villages from the eastern Rift Valley ecosystem

How long does a shoulder replacement last? A systematic review and meta-analysis of case series and national registry reports with more than 10 years of follow-up

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordBackground: Shoulder replacement is an increasingly common treatment for end-stage degenerative shoulder conditions. Some shoulder replacements are unsuccessful and additional operations might be required. It is important for patients and clinicians to know how long shoulder replacements last and how effectively they reduce pain and improve function. This study aims to determine the longevity and long-term efficacy of shoulder replacements. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE and Embase from their inception to Sept 24, 2019, for case series and registry data reporting 10-year or longer survival of total shoulder replacements, humeral hemiarthroplasties, and reverse total shoulder replacements of a specific brand of implant. Survival, implant, and patient-reported outcome measures data were extracted. The primary outcome was implant survival. We reviewed and analysed national joint replacement registries separately. We weighted each series by SE and calculated a pooled survival estimate at years 10, 15, and 20. For patient-reported outcome measures we pooled the standardised mean difference at 10 years. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019140221. Findings: 927 non-duplicate articles were identified by our search, nine articles (reporting ten series) were eligible for analysis of survival and six articles were eligible for analysis of patient reported outcomes. The ten series reported all-cause survival of 529 total shoulder replacements and 364 humeral hemiarthroplasties; no series for reverse total shoulder replacement met the inclusion criteria. The estimated 10-year survival for total shoulder replacement was 94·6% (95% CI 93·6–97·6) and humeral hemiarthroplasties was 90·4% (87·0–94·0). A single registry contributed 7651 total shoulder replacements, 1395 humeral hemiarthroplasties, and 7953 reverse total shoulder replacements. The pooled registry 10-year survival was 92·0% (95% CI 91·0–93·0) for total shoulder replacement, 85·5% (83·3–87·7) for humeral hemiarthroplasties, and 94·4% (93·4–95·7) for patients with osteoarthritis who had reverse total shoulder replacement and 93·6% (91·1–95·8) for patients with rotator cuff arthropathy who had reverse total shoulder replacement. Pooled 10-year patient-reported outcome measures showed a substantial improvement from baseline scores, with a standardised mean difference of 2·13 (95% CI 1·93–2·34). Interpretation: Our data show that approximately 90% of shoulder replacements last for longer than 10 years and patient-reported benefits are sustained. Our findings will be of use to surgeons and patients in the informed consent process and to health-care providers for resource planning. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research, the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Isle of Man, and the Royal College of Surgeons of England.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Isle of ManRoyal College of Surgeons of Englan

Alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation renders witnesses of crime less suggestible to misinformation

RATIONALE: Research has shown that alcohol can have both detrimental and facilitating effects on memory: intoxication can lead to poor memory for information encoded after alcohol consumption (anterograde amnesia) and may improve memory for information encoded before consumption (retrograde facilitation). This study examined whether alcohol consumed after witnessing a crime can render individuals less vulnerable to misleading post-event information (misinformation). METHOD: Participants watched a simulated crime video. Thereafter, one third of participants expected and received alcohol (alcohol group), one third did not expect but received alcohol (reverse placebo), and one third did not expect nor receive alcohol (control). After alcohol consumption, participants were exposed to misinformation embedded in a written narrative about the crime. The following day, participants completed a cued-recall questionnaire about the event. RESULTS: Control participants were more likely to report misinformation compared to the alcohol and reverse placebo group. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that we may oversimplify the effect alcohol has on suggestibility and that sometimes alcohol can have beneficial effects on eyewitness memory by protecting against misleading post-event information

Structure-based mutagenesis reveals the albumin-binding site of the neonatal Fc receptor

Albumin is the most abundant protein in blood where it has a pivotal role as a transporter of fatty acids and drugs. Like IgG, albumin has long serum half-life, protected from degradation by pH-dependent recycling mediated by interaction with the neonatal Fc receptor, FcRn. Although the FcRn interaction with IgG is well characterized at the atomic level, its interaction with albumin is not. Here we present structure-based modelling of the FcRn–albumin complex, supported by binding analysis of site-specific mutants, providing mechanistic evidence for the presence of pH-sensitive ionic networks at the interaction interface. These networks involve conserved histidines in both FcRn and albumin domain III. Histidines also contribute to intramolecular interactions that stabilize the otherwise flexible loops at both the interacting surfaces. Molecular details of the FcRn–albumin complex may guide the development of novel albumin variants with altered serum half-life as carriers of drugs

A Geographically-Restricted but Prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strain Identified in the West Midlands Region of the UK between 1995 and 2008

Background: We describe the identification of, and risk factors for, the single most prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain in the West Midlands region of the UK.Methodology/Principal Findings: Prospective 15-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping of all M. tuberculosis isolates in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 was undertaken. Two retrospective epidemiological investigations were also undertaken using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The first study of all TB patients in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 identified a single prevalent strain in each of the study years (total 155/3,056 (5%) isolates). This prevalent MIRU-VNTR profile (32333 2432515314 434443183) remained clustered after typing with an additional 9-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. The majority of these patients (122/155, 79%) resided in three major cities located within a 40 km radius. From the apparent geographical restriction, we have named this the "Mercian" strain. A multivariate analysis of all TB patients in the West Midlands identified that infection with a Mercian strain was significantly associated with being UK-born (OR = 9.03, 95% CI = 4.56-17.87, p 65 years old (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.09-0.67, p < 0.01). A second more detailed investigation analyzed a cohort of 82 patients resident in Wolverhampton between 2003 and 2006. A significant association with being born in the UK remained after a multivariate analysis (OR = 9.68, 95% CI = 2.00-46.78, p < 0.01) and excess alcohol intake and cannabis use (OR = 6.26, 95% CI = 1.45-27.02, p = .01) were observed as social risk factors for infection.Conclusions/Significance: The continued consistent presence of the Mercian strain suggests ongoing community transmission. Whilst significant associations have been found, there may be other common risk factors yet to be identified. Future investigations should focus on targeting the relevant risk groups and elucidating the biological factors that mediate continued transmission of this strain

A topological classification of convex bodies

The shape of homogeneous, generic, smooth convex bodies as described by the Euclidean distance with nondegenerate critical points, measured from the center of mass represents a rather restricted class M_C of Morse-Smale functions on S^2. Here we show that even M_C exhibits the complexity known for general Morse-Smale functions on S^2 by exhausting all combinatorial possibilities: every 2-colored quadrangulation of the sphere is isomorphic to a suitably represented Morse-Smale complex associated with a function in M_C (and vice versa). We prove our claim by an inductive algorithm, starting from the path graph P_2 and generating convex bodies corresponding to quadrangulations with increasing number of vertices by performing each combinatorially possible vertex splitting by a convexity-preserving local manipulation of the surface. Since convex bodies carrying Morse-Smale complexes isomorphic to P_2 exist, this algorithm not only proves our claim but also generalizes the known classification scheme in [36]. Our expansion algorithm is essentially the dual procedure to the algorithm presented by Edelsbrunner et al. in [21], producing a hierarchy of increasingly coarse Morse-Smale complexes. We point out applications to pebble shapes.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure