Climate change projections for winter streamflow in Douro River

Climate change projections for the winter streamflow of the Douro River have been obtained for the period 2071-2099, using the Principal Component Regression (PCR) method. The winter streamflow time series (January to March) from eight stations distributed over the basin, covering the period 1950-2011, were used as predictand variables, while the principal components (PCs) of the winter (December to February) anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) were used as predictors of the streamflow for the development of a statistical downscaling model. The period 1950-1995 was used for the calibration of the regression model, while 1996-2011 was used as validation period. The statistical downscaling model fitted from the observational SLP data was applied to the SLP outputs of three GCMs for the period 2071-2099, under the climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The main result obtained is that all models and scenarios project a generalized decrease in the winter streamflow of the Douro River.Se han obtenido proyecciones de cambio climático para el caudal de invierno del Río Duero, para el periodo 2071-2099, usando el método de Regresión por Componentes Principales (PCR). Las series temporales de caudal (de enero a marzo) de ocho estaciones distribuidas a lo largo de la cuenca, cubriendo el periodo 1950-2011, han sido utilizadas como variables predictando, mientras que las componentes principales (PCs) de las anomalías de la presión a nivel del mar (SLP) en invierno (diciembre a febrero) fueron usadas como predictores del caudal para el desarrollo de un modelo de downscaling estadístico. Para la calibración del modelo de regresión se utilizó el periodo 1950-1995 como periodo de calibración, mientras que el periodo 1996-2011 fue usado para validación. El modelo de downscaling estadístico ajustado a partir de los datos observacionales de la SLP ha sido aplicado a las salidas de tres GCMs para los datos de SLP en el periodo 2071-2099, bajo los escenarios de cambio climático RCP2.6, RCP4.5 y RCP8.5. El principal resultado encontrado es que todos los modelos y escenarios proyectan un decrecimiento generalizado en el caudal de invierno del río Duero.This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER)

Evaluación de simulaciones de la precipitación en clima presente usando el modelo WRF en la Península Ibérica

En este estudio se ha llevado a cabo un conjunto de simulaciones de alta resolución espacio-temporal para un periodo de 31 años haciendo uso del modelo regional Weather Reserch and Forecasting (WRF) con el fin de evaluar la capacidad del modelo para simular la variabilidad de las precipitaciones en la Península Ibérica. Las simulaciones se realizaron usando como condiciones iniciales y de contorno los datos de reanálisis de ERA-Interim, como “condiciones de contorno perfectas”, y las salidas globales del modelo CMIP5 CESM corregidas en sesgo, sobre un dominio centrado en la PI anidado en el dominio EURO-CORDEX. La evaluación se basó en la comparación de las salidas del modelo con los datos observacionales Spain02 para las precipitaciones en España y PT02 para Portugal, a diferentes escalas temporales con el objetivo de poder averiguar si las simulaciones regionalizadas son capaces de capturar tanto los valores medios como los eventos extremos. Los resultados indican que aunque existen ciertos errores substanciales, WRF es capaz de capturar los principales patrones espaciales de la precipitación en la PI, resultando una herramienta útil a la hora de realizar simulaciones regionales para zonas con una topografía compleja como es la Península Ibérica.A set of 31-yr high-resolution simulations has been carried out with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to evaluate its capability to simulate precipitation variability in the Iberian Peninsula. The WRF model was forced by the ERA-Interim data as “perfect boundary conditions”, and the global bias-corrected climate model outputs from CMIP5 CESM model, over a domain encompassing the IP and nested in the coarser EURO-CORDEX domain. Evaluation was based on comparison at different time scales in order to assess the model ability to capture long-term mean precipitation values and high-order statistics (extreme events). For this end, we used two different observational gridded datasets: the Spain02 data for Spanish precipitation and the PT02 data for Portugal. Although considerable errors are still observed, results show that WRF is able to capture the main spatial precipitation patterns in IP. Therefore, we can say that WRF provides useful information at regional scale, with significant improvement in complex terrain areas such as Iberian Peninsula.Este estudio está financiado por los proyectos P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) y CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER)

Variabilidad estacional de los caudales en Ecuador en el periodo 1964-2014

El objetivo principal de este estudio es analizar las tendencias en el caudal de los ríos de Ecuador. Para este fin, se han utilizado los datos de caudal de la red de estaciones hidrológicas, proporcionados por el Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador (IHNAMI), distribuidas en el territorio ecuatoriano y situadas estratégicamente en las cuencas de los principales ríos. Se seleccionó un número de 26 estaciones con disponibilidad de datos diarios sin discontinuidad durante el período de 51 años (1964-2014). Mediante el test de Man-Kendall y pendiente de Sen, se han evaluado las tendencias del caudal a escala mensual. Por último, se analiza la relación entre la variabilidad del caudal y el ENSO, fuente principal de variabilidad climática en la región.The main objective of this study is to analyze trends in the streamflow of the rivers of Ecuador. For this end, we use the streamflow data from the network of hydrological stations, provided by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador (IHNAMI), distributed over the Ecuadorian territory and strategically located in the watersheds of its main rivers. A number of 26 stations with a continuous period of daily data during 51 years period (1964-2014) was selected. Trends of the streamflow rates have been evaluated at monthly time scales using Man-Kendall test and Sens slope. Finally, we analyze the relationship between the streamflow variability and the ENSO, which is the major climate variability source in the region.Este trabajo ha sido financiado por los proyectos P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-España) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-España, FEDER)

Coupling study of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the streamflow in the Guadalquivir Basin

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a large-scale hydrologic model. Land surface is modeled as a grid of large and uniform cells with sub-grid heterogeneity (e.g. land cover), while water influx is local, only depending from the interaction between grid cell and local atmosphere environment. Water streamflow is obtained separately from the land surface simulation, using the Routing Model. The goal of this work consists into set an optimal hydrological and climate model to study the evolution of the streamflow of Guadalquivir Basin, with different future land use, land cover and climate scenarios, implemented with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In this work we present some results concerning the calibration of the most relevant parameters of VIC model, comparing the streamflow simulations obtained from the observational climate data SPAIN02 and WRF outputs databases, with the use of observational reservoirs and gauging stations daily streamflow time series, obtained from CEDEX database, in the time period 1988-1997.El modelo Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) es un modelo hidrológico de gran escala. La superficie terrestre es modelada considerando una gran rejilla de celdas uniformes que presentan heterogeneidad a escala de sub-rejilla (esto es, cubierta superficial), mientras que el flujo de agua es local, únicamente dependiente de la interacción entre celdas y el medio ambiente local. El caudal de agua se obtiene separadamente a partir de la simulación de la superficie terrestre usando el denominado modelo Routing. El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en calibrar un modelo hidrológico y climático de forma óptima con el fin de estudiar la evolución del caudal en la Cuenca del Guadalquivir, con diferentes posibles usos del suelo futuros, cobertura superficial y escenarios climáticos, implementado con el modelo regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). En este trabajo se presentan resultados relativos a la calibración de los parámetros más relevantes del modelo VIC, comparando las simulaciones de caudal obtenidas por el mismo a partir de los datos climáticos observacionales de SPAIN02 y de las salidas del modelo WRF, con los datos de caudal diario observacionales del CEDEX, para el periodo 1988-1997.This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER)

Regional drought variability assessment over Spain using WRF model

This study assesses the ability of the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce dry and wet periods in a complex terrain region such as Spain. For this end, we have computed two different drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is able to identify the drought patterns in a context of global warming. For comparative purposes, we also computed the drought indices using two different data sources as observational data: the monthly rainfall from MOPREDAS and the (maximum and minimum) monthly temperature from MOTEDAS gridded datasets. ERA-Interim data were also used to calculate the drought indices in order to determinate the improvement obtained using dynamical downscaling regarding to the driving data. Results show that WRF provides an improvement over ERA-Interim in term of droughts simulations, presenting higher temporal correlations with respect to observational data. This fact suggests that WRF outputs may be more suitable than larger-scale fields from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to perform future projections of droughts events.Este estudio evalúa la habilidad del modelo Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) para reproducir periodos húmedos y secos en terrenos geográficamente complejos como España. Con este objetivo se han calculado dos índices de sequía diferentes: el Índice Estandarizado de Precipitación (SPI) y el Índice Estandarizado de Precipitación Evapotranspiración (SPEI), capaz de identificar patrones de sequía en el contexto de calentamiento global. Con propósitos comparativos, se calcularon también los índices de sequía usando dos bases de datos diferentes como datos observacionales: las precipitaciones mensuales de los datos en rejilla de MOPREDAS y las temperaturas (máximas y mínimas) mensuales de MOTEDAS. Los resultados muestran que las salidas del modelo WRF suponen una mejora con respecto a los datos de ERA-Interim en cuanto a las simulaciones de sequías presentando mayores coeficientes de correlación temporal con los datos observacionales. Este hecho sugiere que las salidas de WRF pueden ser más idóneas que los datos de Modelos Climáticos Globales (GCMs) a la hora de realizar proyecciones futuras para episodios de sequía.This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER)

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. Methods: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015. Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years, 65 to 80 years, and = 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. Results: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 = 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients =80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%, 65 years; 20.5%, 65-79 years; 31.3%, =80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%, <65 years;30.1%, 65-79 years;34.7%, =80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%, =80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age = 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI = 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88), and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared, the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Conclusion: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age = 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI), and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Influencia de la SST atlántica sobre las precipitaciones de la Península Ibérica.

En este trabaja se estudía la influencia que ejercen las temperaturas de la superficie del mar (SST) de la región del Océano Atlántica sobre las predipítadíanes en la Península Ibérica. Para ella se ha realizada primero un estudio independiente de cada una de las variables (SST atlántica y precípitadiunes de la Península). Se trata de datas mensuales que abarcan el período 1871-2001 para la SST y 1900-2001 para el caso de la precipitación. Mediante el Análisis Singular Espectral Mullí-canal (M-SSA) se ha analizada laesíructura espacia-temparal de la variabilidad de ambas conjuntas de datas, en escalas interanual y decadal, encontrándose la existencia de varias mudas uscilaturías comunes a la SST y a la precipitación, con períodos cercanas a las 13.7, 8.5, 5.5, 3.6 y 2.7 añas. Adíciunalmente, la detección de las retrasas encontradas entre estas mudas de variabilidad confiere una capacidad predictiva de la SST atlántica sobre las predípítadíanes de la Península Ibérica

Daily gridded datasets of snow depth and snow water equivalent for the Iberian Peninsula from 1980 to 2014

International audienceWe present snow observations and a validated daily gridded snowpack dataset that was simulated from downscaled reanalysis of data for the Iberian Peninsula. The Iberian Peninsula has long-lasting seasonal snowpacks in its different mountain ranges, and winter snowfall occurs in most of its area. However, there are only limited direct observations of snow depth (SD) and snow water equivalent (SWE), making it difficult to analyze snow dynamics and the spatiotemporal patterns of snowfall. We used meteorological data from downscaled reanalyses as input of a physically based snow energy balance model to simulate SWE and SD over the Iberian Peninsula from 1980 to 2014. More specifically, the ERA-Interim reanalysis was downscaled to 10 km × 10 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF outputs were used directly, or as input to other submodels, to obtain data needed to drive the Factorial Snow Model (FSM). We used lapse rate coefficients and hygrobarometric adjustments to simulate snow series at 100 m elevations bands for each 10 km × 10 km grid cell in the Iberian Peninsula. The snow series were validated using data from MODIS satellite sensor and ground observations. The overall simulated snow series accurately reproduced the interannual variability of snowpack and the spatial variability of snow accumulation and melting, even in very complex topographic terrains. Thus, the presented dataset may be useful for many applications, including land management, hydrometeorological studies, phenology of flora and fauna, winter tourism, and risk management. The data presented here are freely available for download from Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.854618). This paper fully describes the work flow, data validation, uncertainty assessment, and possible applications and limitations of the database

Prediction of long-term outcomes of HIV-infected patients developing non-AIDS events using a multistate approach

Outcomes of people living with HIV (PLWH) developing non-AIDS events (NAEs) remain poorly defined. We aimed to classify NAEs according to severity, and to describe clinical outcomes and prognostic factors after NAE occurrence using data from CoRIS, a large Spanish HIV cohort from 2004 to 2013. Prospective multicenter cohort study. Using a multistate approach we estimated 3 transition probabilities: from alive and NAE-free to alive and NAE-experienced ("NAE development"); from alive and NAE-experienced to death ("Death after NAE"); and from alive and NAE-free to death ("Death without NAE"). We analyzed the effect of different covariates, including demographic, immunologic and virologic data, on death or NAE development, based on estimates of hazard ratios (HR). We focused on the transition "Death after NAE". 8,789 PLWH were followed-up until death, cohort censoring or loss to follow-up. 792 first incident NAEs occurred in 9.01% PLWH (incidence rate 28.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.80-30.84, per 1000 patient-years). 112 (14.14%) NAE-experienced PLWH and 240 (2.73%) NAE-free PLWH died. Adjusted HR for the transition "Death after NAE" was 12.1 (95%CI, 4.90-29.89). There was a graded increase in the adjusted HRs for mortality according to NAE severity category: HR (95%CI), 4.02 (2.45-6.57) for intermediate-severity; and 9.85 (5.45-17.81) for serious NAEs compared to low-severity NAEs. Male sex (HR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.11-3.84), ag

Potato consumption does not increase blood pressure or incident hypertension in 2 cohorts of Spanish adults

5 TablasBackground: Potatoes have a high glycemic load but also antioxidants, vitamins, and minerals. It is unclear what mechanisms are involved in relation to their effect on blood pressure (BP) and hypertension. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the association between potato consumption, BP changes, and the risk of hypertension in 2 Spanish populations. Methods: Separate analyses were performed in PREDIMED (PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea), a multicenter nutrition intervention trial of adults aged 55-80 y, and the SUN (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra) project, a prospective cohort made up of university graduates and educated adults with ages (means±SDs) of 42.7±13.3 y for men and 35.1± 10.7 y for women. In PREDIMED, generalized estimating equations adjusted for lifestyle and dietary characteristics were used to assess changes in BP across quintiles of total potato consumption during a 4-y follow-up. Controlled BP values (systolic BP < 140 mm Hg and diastolic BP < 90 mm Hg) during follow-up were also assessed. For SUN, multivariateadjusted HRs for incident hypertension during a mean 6.7-y follow-up were calculated. Results: In PREDIMED, the total potato intake was 81.9 ± 40.6 g/d. No overall differences in systolic or diastolic BP changes were detected based on consumption of potatoes. For total potatoes, the mean difference in change between quintile 5 (highest intake) and quintile 1 (lowest intake) in systolic BP after multivariate adjustment was 20.90 mm Hg (95% CI: -2.56, 0.76 mm Hg; P-trend = 0.1) and for diastolic BP was 20.02 mm Hg (95% CI: -0.93, 0.89 mm Hg; P-trend = 0.8). In SUN, the total potato consumption was 52.7 ± 33.6 g/d, and no significant association between potato consumption and hypertension incidence was observed in the fully adjusted HR for total potato consumption (quintile 5 compared with quintile 1: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.80, 1.19; P-trend = 0.8). Conclusions: Potato consumption is not associated with changes over 4 y in blood pressure among older adults in Spain or with the risk of hypertension among Spanish adults.Supported by the official funding agency for biomedical research of the Spanish Government, Instituto de Salud Carlos III through grants provided to research networks specifically developed for the trial (RTIC G03/140, to RE; RTIC RD 06/0045, to MAM-G) and through Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Fisiopatología de la Obesidad y Nutrición (CIBERobn), and by grants from Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares (CNIC 06/2007), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria–Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional [Proyecto de Investigación (PI) 04-2239, PI 05/2584, CP06/00100, PI07/0240, PI07/1138, PI07/0954, PI 07/0473, PI10/01407, PI10/02658, PI11/01647, P11/02505 and PI13/00462], Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación [Recursos y teconologia agroalimentarias (AGL)-2009-13906-C02 and AGL2010-22319-C03 and AGL2013-49083-C3-1-R], Fundación Mapfre 2010, the Consejería de Salud de la Junta de Andalucía (PI0105/2007), the Public Health Division of the Department of Health of the Autonomous Government of Catalonia, Generalitat Valenciana [Generalitat Valenciana Ayuda Complementaria (GVACOMP) 06109, GVACOMP2010-181, GVACOMP2011-151], Conselleria de Sanitat y AP; Atención Primaria (CS) 2010-AP-111 and CS2011-AP-042, and Regional Government of Navarra (P27/2011)