Statistical uncertainties and systematic errors in weak lensing mass estimates of galaxy clusters

Upcoming and ongoing large area weak lensing surveys will also discover large samples of galaxy clusters. Accurate and precise masses of galaxy clusters are of major importance for cosmology, for example, in establishing well calibrated observational halo mass functions for comparison with cosmological predictions. We investigate the level of statistical uncertainties and sources of systematic errors expected for weak lensing mass estimates. Future surveys that will cover large areas on the sky, such as Euclid or LSST and to lesser extent DES, will provide the largest weak lensing cluster samples with the lowest level of statistical noise regarding ensembles of galaxy clusters. However, the expected low level of statistical uncertainties requires us to scrutinize various sources of systematic errors. In particular, we investigate the bias due to cluster member galaxies which are erroneously treated as background source galaxies due to wrongly assigned photometric redshifts. We find that this effect is significant when referring to stacks of galaxy clusters. Finally, we study the bias due to miscentring, i.e., the displacement between any observationally defined cluster centre and the true minimum of its gravitational potential. The impact of this bias might be significant with respect to the statistical uncertainties. However, complementary future missions such as eROSITA will allow us to define stringent priors on miscentring parameters which will mitigate this bias significantly.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures; accepted for publication in MNRA

The two-and three-point correlation functions of the polarized five-year WMAP sky maps

We present the two- and three-point real space correlation functions of the five-year WMAP sky maps, and compare the observed functions to simulated LCDM concordance model ensembles. In agreement with previously published results, we find that the temperature correlation functions are consistent with expectations. However, the pure polarization correlation functions are acceptable only for the 33GHz band map; the 41, 61, and 94 GHz band correlation functions all exhibit significant large-scale excess structures. Further, these excess structures very closely match the correlation functions of the two (synchrotron and dust) foreground templates used to correct the WMAP data for galactic contamination, with a cross-correlation statistically significant at the 2sigma-3sigma confidence level. The correlation is slightly stronger with respect to the thermal dust template than with the synchrotron template.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, published in ApJ. v2: New title, minor changes to appendix, and fixed some typos. v3: Matches version published in Ap

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm for analysis of low signal-to-noise CMB data

We present a new Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm for CMB analysis in the low signal-to-noise regime. This method builds on and complements the previously described CMB Gibbs sampler, and effectively solves the low signal-to-noise inefficiency problem of the direct Gibbs sampler. The new algorithm is a simple Metropolis-Hastings sampler with a general proposal rule for the power spectrum, C_l, followed by a particular deterministic rescaling operation of the sky signal. The acceptance probability for this joint move depends on the sky map only through the difference of chi-squared between the original and proposed sky sample, which is close to unity in the low signal-to-noise regime. The algorithm is completed by alternating this move with a standard Gibbs move. Together, these two proposals constitute a computationally efficient algorithm for mapping out the full joint CMB posterior, both in the high and low signal-to-noise regimes.Comment: Submitted to Ap

CMB likelihood approximation by a Gaussianized Blackwell-Rao estimator

We introduce a new CMB temperature likelihood approximation called the Gaussianized Blackwell-Rao (GBR) estimator. This estimator is derived by transforming the observed marginal power spectrum distributions obtained by the CMB Gibbs sampler into standard univariate Gaussians, and then approximate their joint transformed distribution by a multivariate Gaussian. The method is exact for full-sky coverage and uniform noise, and an excellent approximation for sky cuts and scanning patterns relevant for modern satellite experiments such as WMAP and Planck. A single evaluation of this estimator between l=2 and 200 takes ~0.2 CPU milliseconds, while for comparison, a single pixel space likelihood evaluation between l=2 and 30 for a map with ~2500 pixels requires ~20 seconds. We apply this tool to the 5-year WMAP temperature data, and re-estimate the angular temperature power spectrum, $C_{\ell}$, and likelihood, L(C_l), for l<=200, and derive new cosmological parameters for the standard six-parameter LambdaCDM model. Our spectrum is in excellent agreement with the official WMAP spectrum, but we find slight differences in the derived cosmological parameters. Most importantly, the spectral index of scalar perturbations is n_s=0.973 +/- 0.014, 1.9 sigma away from unity and 0.6 sigma higher than the official WMAP result, n_s = 0.965 +/- 0.014. This suggests that an exact likelihood treatment is required to higher l's than previously believed, reinforcing and extending our conclusions from the 3-year WMAP analysis. In that case, we found that the sub-optimal likelihood approximation adopted between l=12 and 30 by the WMAP team biased n_s low by 0.4 sigma, while here we find that the same approximation between l=30 and 200 introduces a bias of 0.6 sigma in n_s.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Ap

Point-Source Power in 3 Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe Data

Using a set of multifrequency cross spectra computed from the 3 year WMAP sky maps, we fit for the unresolved point-source contribution. For a white-noise power spectrum, we find a Q-band amplitude of A = 0.011 ± 0.001 μK^2 sr (antenna temperature), significantly smaller than the value of 0.017 ± 0.002 μK^2 sr used to correct the spectra in the WMAP release. Modifying the point-source correction in this way largely resolves the discrepancy that Eriksen et al. found between the WMAP V- and W-band power spectra. Correcting the co-added WMAP spectrum for both the low-l power excess due to a suboptimal likelihood approximation—also reported by Eriksen et al.—and the high-l power deficit due to oversubtracted point sources—presented in this Letter—we find that the net effect in terms of cosmological parameters is an ~0.7 σ shift in n_s to larger values. For the combination of WMAP, BOOMERANG, and ACBAR data, we find ns = 0.969 ± 0.016, lowering the significance of n_s ≠ 1 from ~2.7 σ to ~2.0 σ

Sensitivity and foreground modelling for large-scale CMB B-mode polarization satellite missions

The measurement of the large-scale B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is a fundamental goal of future CMB experiments. However, because of unprecedented sensitivity, future CMB experiments will be much more sensitive to any imperfect modelling of the Galactic foreground polarization in the reconstruction of the primordial B-mode signal. We compare the sensitivity to B-modes of different concepts of CMB satellite missions (LiteBIRD, COrE, COrE+, PRISM, EPIC, PIXIE) in the presence of Galactic foregrounds. In particular, we quantify the impact on the tensor-to-scalar parameter of incorrect foreground modelling in the component separation process. Using Bayesian fitting and Gibbs sampling, we perform the separation of the CMB and Galactic foreground B-modes. The recovered CMB B-mode power spectrum is used to compute the likelihood distribution of the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We focus the analysis to the very large angular scales that can be probed only by CMB space missions, i.e. the Reionization bump, where primordial B-modes dominate over spurious B-modes induced by gravitational lensing. We find that fitting a single modified blackbody component for thermal dust where the "real" sky consists of two dust components strongly bias the estimation of the tensor-to-scalar ratio by more than 5{\sigma} for the most sensitive experiments. Neglecting in the parametric model the curvature of the synchrotron spectral index may bias the estimated tensor-to-scalar ratio by more than 1{\sigma}. For sensitive CMB experiments, omitting in the foreground modelling a 1% polarized spinning dust component may induce a non-negligible bias in the estimated tensor-to-scalar ratio.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables. Updated to match version accepted by MNRA

Constraints on mode couplings and modulation of the CMB with WMAP data

We investigate a possible asymmetry in the statistical properties of the cosmic microwave background temperature field and to do so we construct an estimator aiming at detecting a dipolar modulation. Such a modulation is found to induce correlations between multipoles with $\Delta\ell=1$. Applying this estimator, to the V and W bands of the WMAP data, we found a significant detection in the V band. We argue however that foregrounds and in particular point sources are the origin of this signal.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figure

Real space tests of the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the WMAP CMB data

ABRIDGED: We introduce and analyze a method for testing statistical isotropy and Gaussianity and apply it to the WMAP CMB foreground reduced, temperature maps, and cross-channel difference maps. We divide the sky into regions of varying size and shape and measure the first four moments of the one-point distribution within these regions, and using their simulated spatial distributions we test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity hypotheses. By randomly varying orientations of these regions, we sample the underlying CMB field in a new manner, that offers a richer exploration of the data content, and avoids possible biasing due to a single choice of sky division. The statistical significance is assessed via comparison with realistic Monte-Carlo simulations. We find the three-year WMAP maps to agree well with the isotropic, Gaussian random field simulations as probed by regions corresponding to the angular scales ranging from 6 deg to 30 deg at 68% confidence level. We report a strong, anomalous (99.8% CL) dipole ``excess'' in the V band of the three-year WMAP data and also in the V band of the WMAP five-year data (99.3% CL). We notice the large scale hemispherical power asymmetry, and find that it is not highly statistically significant in the WMAP three-year data (<~ 97%) at scales l <= 40. The significance is even smaller if multipoles up to l=1024 are considered (~90% CL). We give constraints on the amplitude of the previously-proposed CMB dipole modulation field parameter. We easily detect the residual foregrounds in cross-band difference maps at rms level <~ 7 \mu K (at scales >~ 6 deg) and limit the systematical uncertainties to <~ 1.7 \mu K (at scales >~ 30 deg).Comment: 20 pages, 20 figures; more tests added; updated to match the version to be published in JCA

Asymmetries in the CMB anisotropy field

We report on the results from two independent but complementary statistical analyses of the WMAP first-year data, based on the power spectrum and N-point correlation functions. We focus on large and intermediate scales (larger than about 3 degrees) and compare the observed data against Monte Carlo ensembles with WMAP-like properties. In both analyses, we measure the amplitudes of the large-scale fluctuations on opposing hemispheres and study the ratio of the two amplitudes. The power-spectrum analysis shows that this ratio for WMAP, as measured along the axis of maximum asymmetry, is high at the 95%-99% level (depending on the particular multipole range included). The axis of maximum asymmetry of the WMAP data is weakly dependent on the multipole range under consideration but tends to lie close to the ecliptic axis. In the N-point correlation function analysis we focus on the northern and southern hemispheres defined in ecliptic coordinates, and we find that the ratio of the large-scale fluctuation amplitudes is high at the 98%-99% level. Furthermore, the results are stable with respect to choice of Galactic cut and also with respect to frequency band. A similar asymmetry is found in the COBE-DMR map, and the axis of maximum asymmetry is close to the one found in the WMAP data.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; version to appear in ApJ, textual improvements, added reference