Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

An increasing number of domains are providing us with detailed trace data on human decisions in settings where we can evaluate the quality of these decisions via an algorithm. Motivated by this development, an emerging line of work has begun to consider whether we can characterize and predict the kinds of decisions where people are likely to make errors. To investigate what a general framework for human error prediction might look like, we focus on a model system with a rich history in the behavioral sciences: the decisions made by chess players as they select moves in a game. We carry out our analysis at a large scale, employing datasets with several million recorded games, and using chess tablebases to acquire a form of ground truth for a subset of chess positions that have been completely solved by computers but remain challenging even for the best players in the world. We organize our analysis around three categories of features that we argue are present in most settings where the analysis of human error is applicable: the skill of the decision-maker, the time available to make the decision, and the inherent difficulty of the decision. We identify rich structure in all three of these categories of features, and find strong evidence that in our domain, features describing the inherent difficulty of an instance are significantly more powerful than features based on skill or time.Comment: KDD 2016; 10 page

Intralake heterogeneity of thermal responses to climate change: a study of large northern hemisphere lakes

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) measurements from various sources illustrate that lakes are warming in response to climate change. Most previous studies of geographical distributions of lake warming have tended to utilize data with limited spatial resolution of LSWTs, including single-point time series. Spatially resolved LSWT time-series are now available from satellite observations and some studies have investigated previously the intra-lake warming patterns in specific lakes (e.g., North American Great Lakes). However, across-lake comparisons of intra-lake warming differences have not yet been investigated at a large, across-continental scale, thus limiting our understanding of how intra-lake warming patterns differ more broadly. In this study, we analyze up to 20 years of satellite data from 19 lakes situated across the Northern Hemisphere, to investigate how LSWT changes vary across different lake surfaces. We find considerable intra-lake variability in warming trends across many lakes. The deepest areas of large lakes are characterized by a later onset of thermal stratification, a shorter stratified warming season and exhibit longer correlation timescales of LSWT anomalies. We show that deep areas of large lakes across the Northern Hemisphere as a result tend to display higher rates of warming of summer LSWT, arising from a greater temporal persistence in deep areas of the temperature anomalies associated with an earlier onset of thermal stratification. Utilization of single-point LSWT trends to represent changes in large lakes therefore suppresses important aspects of lake responses to climate change, whereas spatially resolved LSWT measurements can be exploited to provide more comprehensive understanding

Lateralization of face processing in the human brain

Are visual face processing mechanisms the same in the left and right cerebral hemispheres? The possibility of such ‘duplicated processing’ seems puzzling in terms of neural resource usage, and we currently lack a precise characterization of the lateral differences in face processing. To address this need, we have undertaken a three-pronged approach. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we assessed cortical sensitivity to facial semblance, the modulatory effects of context and temporal response dynamics. Results on all three fronts revealed systematic hemispheric differences. We found that: (i) activation patterns in the left fusiform gyrus correlate with image-level face-semblance, while those in the right correlate with categorical face/non-face judgements. (ii) Context exerts significant excitatory/inhibitory influence in the left, but has limited effect on the right. (iii) Face-selectivity persists in the right even after activity on the left has returned to baseline. These results provide important clues regarding the functional architecture of face processing, suggesting that the left hemisphere is involved in processing ‘low-level’ face semblance, and perhaps is a precursor to categorical ‘deep’ analyses on the right.John Merck FundSimons FoundationJames S. McDonnell FoundationNational Eye Institute (NIH, grant number R21-EY015521

Multiple marker mapping of quantitative trait loci of Finnish dairy cattle by regression

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Effects of age, gender and soil-transmitted helminth infection on prevalence of Plasmodium infection among population living in bata district, equatorial Guinea

INTRODUCTION: Malaria and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) co-infection is an important parasitic infection affecting populations in co-endemic countries including Equatorial Guinea. To date, the health impact of STH and malaria co-infection is inconclusive. The current study aimed to report the malaria and STH infection epidemiology in the continental region of Equatorial Guinea. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study between October 2020 and January 2021 in the Bata district of Equatorial Guinea. Participants aged 1-9 years, 10-17 years and above 18 were recruited. Fresh venous blood was collected for malaria testing via mRDTs and light microscopy. Stool specimens were collected, and the Kato-Katz technique was used to detect the presence of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworm spp. and intestinal Schistosoma eggs. RESULTS: A total of 402 participants were included in this study. An amount of 44.3% of them lived in urban areas, and only 51.9% of them reported having bed nets. Malaria infections were detected in 34.8% of the participants, while 50% of malaria infections were reported in children aged 10-17 years. Females had a lower prevalence of malaria (28.8%) compared with males (41.7%). Children of 1-9 years carried more gametocytes compared with other age groups. An amount of 49.3% of the participants infected with T. trichiura had malaria parasites compared with those infected with A. lumbricoides (39.6%) or both (46.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The overlapping problem of STH and malaria is neglected in Bata. The current study forces the government and other stakeholders involved in the fight against malaria and STH to consider a combined control program strategy for both parasitic infections in Equatorial Guinea

Learned helplessness in chess players: The importance of task similarity and the role of skill

The effects of noncontingency between subjects' responses and outcomes were examined with respect to treatment/posttest similarity and skill in the task. The experimental design consisted of three groups. The first group had to solve chess problems with objective solutions and received veridical feedback; each member of the second group faced problems with no objective solutions, and received the same feedback as the member of the first group he was yoked with, but without any control on it; the control group received a waiting task. It was found that the group with unsolvable problems was more depressed than the two other groups at the end of the experiment. The mid-strength players were the most sensitive to the manipulation, and the weakest players showed little effect of learned helplessness. It was also found that the effects were proportional to the degree of similarity between the treatment and the posttest. The results limit the domain of applicability of the learned helplessness model

Exploring local knowledge and perceptions on zoonoses among pastoralists in northern and eastern Tanzania

Background: Zoonoses account for the most commonly reported emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited knowledge on how pastoral communities perceive zoonoses in relation to their livelihoods, culture and their wider ecology. This study was carried out to explore local knowledge and perceptions on zoonoses among pastoralists in Tanzania. Methodology and principal findings: This study involved pastoralists in Ngorongoro district in northern Tanzania and Kibaha and Bagamoyo districts in eastern Tanzania. Qualitative methods of focus group discussions, participatory epidemiology and interviews were used. A total of 223 people were involved in the study. Among the pastoralists, there was no specific term in their local language that describes zoonosis. Pastoralists from northern Tanzania possessed a higher understanding on the existence of a number of zoonoses than their eastern districts' counterparts. Understanding of zoonoses could be categorized into two broad groups: a local syndromic framework, whereby specific symptoms of a particular illness in humans concurred with symptoms in animals, and the biomedical framework, where a case definition is supported by diagnostic tests. Some pastoralists understand the possibility of some infections that could cross over to humans from animals but harm from these are generally tolerated and are not considered as threats. A number of social and cultural practices aimed at maintaining specific cultural functions including social cohesion and rites of passage involve animal products, which present zoonotic risk. Conclusions: These findings show how zoonoses are locally understood, and how epidemiology and biomedicine are shaping pastoralists perceptions to zoonoses. Evidence is needed to understand better the true burden and impact of zoonoses in these communities. More studies are needed that seek to clarify the common understanding of zoonoses that could be used to guide effective and locally relevant interventions. Such studies should consider in their approaches the pastoralists' wider social, cultural and economic set up

Drama as a pedagogical tool for practicing death notification-experiences from Swedish medical students

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One of the toughest tasks in any profession is the deliverance of death notification. Marathon Death is an exercise conducted during the fourth year of medical school in northern Sweden to prepare students for this responsibility. The exercise is designed to enable students to gain insight into the emotional and formal procedure of delivering death notifications. The exercise is inspired by Augusto Boal's work around Forum Theatre and is analyzed using video playback. The aim of the study was to explore reflections, attitudes and ideas toward training in delivering death notifications among medical students who participate in the Marathon Death exercise based on forum play.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After participation in the Marathon Death exercise, students completed semi-structured interviews. The transcribed interviews were analyzed using the principles of qualitative content analysis including a deductive content analysis approach with a structured matrix based on Bloom's taxonomy domains.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Marathon Death exercise was perceived as emotionally loaded, realistic and valuable for the future professional role as a physician. The deliverance of a death notification to the next of kin that a loved one has died was perceived as difficult. The exercise conjured emotions such as positive expectations and sheer anxiety. Students perceived participation in the exercise as an important learning experience, discovering that they had the capacity to manage such a difficult situation. The feedback from the video playback of the exercise and the feedback from fellow students and teachers enhanced the learning experience.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The exercise, Marathon Death, based on forum play with video playback is a useful pedagogical tool that enables students to practice delivering death notification. The ability to practice under realistic conditions contributes to reinforce students in preparation for their future professional role.</p