Quantifying the Rising “Blue Wave”: The Five Metro Areas that Determined the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

With the 2020 Presidential Election completed and Joe Biden elected as the United States’ 46th President, strategists of the Democratic Party must now shift their focus toward defending this victory in 2024. We will be assessing the outlook for the Democratic Party going forward by examining changes in voting behavior from 2016 to 2020 in five key counties: Milwaukee County (WI), Maricopa County (AZ), Wayne County (MI), Philadelphia County (PA), and Fulton County (GA). These counties were chosen for two reasons. First, they are all in states President-Elect Biden flipped from President Trump. Secondly, while they are all urban counties, together represent all regions of America. We will be analyzing changes in voter turnout, votes for Republicans or Democrats, margins of victory, and percentage point victory. Along with that, these changes and the overall behavior of voters from these counties will be compared to the voting behavior of their counties’ members of the House of Representatives, through code from Kaggle. This will help us quantify any liberal shift, as pundits for years have talked about the “Blue Wave.

Improved cognitive outcomes in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated with daclizumab beta: Results from the DECIDE study.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment is common in multiple sclerosis (MS), with cognitive processing speed being the most frequently affected domain. OBJECTIVE: Examine the effects of daclizumab beta versus intramuscular (IM) interferon (IFN) beta-1a on cognitive processing speed as assessed by Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). METHODS: In DECIDE, patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) (age: 18-55 years; Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 0-5.0) were randomized to daclizumab beta ( n = 919) or IM IFN beta-1a ( n = 922) for 96-144 weeks. SDMT was administered at baseline and at 24-week intervals. RESULTS: At week 96, significantly greater mean improvement from baseline in SDMT was observed with daclizumab beta versus IM IFN beta-1a ( p = 0.0274). Significantly more patients treated with daclizumab beta showed clinically meaningful improvement in SDMT (increase from baseline of ⩾3 points ( p = 0.0153) or ⩾4 points ( p = 0.0366)), and significantly fewer patients showed clinically meaningful worsening (decrease from baseline of ⩾3 points ( p = 0.0103)). Odds representing risk of worsening versus stability or improvement on SDMT were significantly smaller for daclizumab beta ( p = 0.0088 (3-point threshold); p = 0.0267 (4-point threshold)). In patients completing 144 weeks of treatment, the effects of daclizumab beta were generally sustained. CONCLUSION: These results provide evidence for a benefit of daclizumab beta versus IM IFN beta-1a on cognitive processing speed in RRMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01064401 (Efficacy and Safety of BIIB019 (Daclizumab High Yield Process) Versus Interferon β 1a in Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (DECIDE)): https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01064401

Knowledge practices in design: The role of visual representations as 'epistemic objects'

We use a detailed study of the knowledge work around visual representations to draw attention to the multidimensional nature of `objects'. Objects are variously described in the literatures as relatively stable or in flux; as abstract or concrete; and as used within or across practices. We clarify these dimensions, drawing on and extending the literature on boundary objects, and connecting it with work on epistemic and technical objects. In particular, we highlight the epistemic role of objects, using our observations of knowledge work on an architectural design project to show how, in this setting, visual representations are characterized by a `lack' or incompleteness that precipitates unfolding. The conceptual design of a building involves a wide range of technical, social and aesthetic forms of knowledge that need to be developed and aligned. We explore how visual representations are used, and how these are meaningful to different stakeholders, eliciting their distinct contributions. As the project evolves and the drawings change, new issues and needs for knowledge work arise. These objects have an `unfolding ontology' and are constantly in flux, rather than fully formed. We discuss the implications for wider understandings of objects in organizations and for how knowledge work is achieved in practice

Bordetella pertussis Whole Cell Immunization, Unlike Acellular Immunization, Mimics Naïve Infection by Driving Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cell Expansion in Mice

Hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) compartments are altered to direct immune responses to infection. Their roles during immunization are not well-described. To elucidate mechanisms for waning immunity following immunization with acellular vaccines (ACVs) against Bordetella pertussis (Bp), we tested the hypothesis that immunization with Bp ACVs and whole cell vaccines (WCVs) differ in directing the HSPC characteristics and immune cell development patterns that ultimately contribute to the types and quantities of cells produced to fight infection. Our data demonstrate that compared to control and ACV-immunized CD-1 mice, immunization with an efficacious WCV drives expansion of hematopoietic multipotent progenitor cells (MPPs), increases circulating white blood cells (WBCs), and alters the size and composition of lymphoid organs. In addition to MPPs, common lymphoid progenitor (CLP) proportions increase in the bone marrow of WCV-immunized mice, while B220+ cell proportions decrease. Upon subsequent infection, increases in maturing B cell populations are striking in WCV-immunized mice. RNAseq analyses of HSPCs revealed that WCV and ACV-immunized mice vastly differ in developing VDJ gene segment diversity. Moreover, gene set enrichment analyses demonstrate WCV-immunized mice exhibit unique gene signatures that suggest roles for interferon (IFN) induced gene expression. Also observed in naïve infection, these IFN stimulated gene (ISG) signatures point toward roles in cell survival, cell cycle, autophagy, and antigen processing and presentation. Taken together, these findings underscore the impact of vaccine antigen and adjuvant content on skewing and/or priming HSPC populations for immune response

Bordetella pertussis Whole Cell Immunization, Unlike Acellular Immunization, Mimics Naïve Infection by Driving Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cell Expansion in Mice

Hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) compartments are altered to direct immune responses to infection. Their roles during immunization are not well-described. To elucidate mechanisms for waning immunity following immunization with acellular vaccines (ACVs) against Bordetella pertussis (Bp), we tested the hypothesis that immunization with Bp ACVs and whole cell vaccines (WCVs) differ in directing the HSPC characteristics and immune cell development patterns that ultimately contribute to the types and quantities of cells produced to fight infection. Our data demonstrate that compared to control and ACV-immunized CD-1 mice, immunization with an efficacious WCV drives expansion of hematopoietic multipotent progenitor cells (MPPs), increases circulating white blood cells (WBCs), and alters the size and composition of lymphoid organs. In addition to MPPs, common lymphoid progenitor (CLP) proportions increase in the bone marrow of WCV-immunized mice, while B220+ cell proportions decrease. Upon subsequent infection, increases in maturing B cell populations are striking in WCV-immunized mice. RNAseq analyses of HSPCs revealed that WCV and ACV-immunized mice vastly differ in developing VDJ gene segment diversity. Moreover, gene set enrichment analyses demonstrate WCV-immunized mice exhibit unique gene signatures that suggest roles for interferon (IFN) induced gene expression. Also observed in naïve infection, these IFN stimulated gene (ISG) signatures point toward roles in cell survival, cell cycle, autophagy, and antigen processing and presentation. Taken together, these findings underscore the impact of vaccine antigen and adjuvant content on skewing and/or priming HSPC populations for immune response

Constraining remote oxidation capacity with ATom observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half of the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July-August 2016 and January-February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NOy concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias, with the exception of wintertime NOy. The severe model overestimate of NOy during this period may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on sea-salt aerosols. Large uncertainties in these processes require further study to improve simulated NOy partitioning and removal in the troposphere, but preliminary tests suggest that their overall impact could marginally reduce the model bias in tropospheric OH. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by a comprehensive simulation of both biotic and abiotic ocean sources of VOCs. Additional sources of VOC reactivity in this region are difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOCs, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in both model acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean sources of VOCs in the model increases cOHRmod by 3 % to 9 % and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde, particularly in winter, but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require 100 Tg yr-1 of a longlived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)