The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming

Os mártires e a cristianização do território na América portuguesa, séculos XVI e XVII

O artigo investiga um grupo de atores sociais bastante relevante para viabilizar a cristianização na América portuguesa: os mártires cristãos, indivíduos muito especiais, dispostos a regar a terra com seu próprio sangue, de forma a tornar definitiva e irreversível a ocupação cristã do território. Os mártires - e principalmente a narrativa em torno deles - parecem ter sido bastante acionados para integrar a América portuguesa e seus habitantes nativos à temporalidade e territorialidade cristã. Os mártires dos séculos XVI e XVII, principalmente missionários, reeditavam os martírios do início da cristandade, que espalharam o cristianismo rumo a diversas partes do mundo na antiguidade. Dessa forma, viabilizaram a cristianização das novas fronteiras, consagrando o solo com seu sangue divino e viabilizando posteriores processos de urbanização. Além da função estratégica dos mártires para os cristãos, o texto mostra que eles também tiveram significado peculiar na interlocução com as culturas ameríndias, que tinha como um de seus principais personagens o grande guerreiro, disposto a perder seu sangue em prol de seu grupo.This paper looks into a group of social agents who played a significant role in the Christianization of Portuguese America, namely, the Christian martyrs - very special individuals who were ready to wet the land with their own blood in order to make possible a definitive and irreversible occupation of the territory by Christian settlers. The martyrs, and above all the stories told about them, seem to have been called upon to integrate Portuguese America and its native inhabitants into the temporalities and territory of Christendom. Mostly made up of missionaries, this group of 16th and 17th-century martyrs reedited the martyrdom of early Christians, who spread their creed across numerous parts of the Ancient World. They enabled the Christianization of new frontiers by consecrating the soil with their divine blood and paving the way for subsequent processes of urban development. In addition to their strategic significance for Christianity, the text also shows that their martyrdom played a specific role in the Christian settlers' interaction with Amerindian culture, whose main cults included the figure of the great warrior, ever ready to shed his own blood for his group

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human timescales. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near pre-industrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP 8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Arctic climate variability during the past millennium : combining model simulations and proxy data

The Arctic is one of the regions that experienced the fastest and highest warming of the planet during the recent decades, and changes in its environment had worldwide implications. Studying climate changes during the past is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the climate system, particularly to provide insights into the processes involved in the recent Arctic warming, in order to assess future global climate changes. Information about past climate evolution can be extracted from “proxy” data, while climate models can be used to interpret the observed changes. In this doctoral thesis, we have taken advantage of the complementarity of model results and proxy data, through data assimilation, to provide reliable simulations of the Arctic climate over the past millennium that are in agreement with all the possible sources of information: proxies, physics of the model and external forcings. Those simulations have then been used to analyse the role played by different forcing elements in the past Arctic climate changes. We have highlighted, for instance, the dominant contribution of volcanic eruptions in the simulated temperature trends and of the astronomical forcing in the differences in seasonal trends. The role of the atmospheric circulation in explaining some warm periods has been underlined in our simulations assimilating sparse temperature reconstructions based on proxy data. We have also demonstrated the need for a precise estimation of proxy data uncertainties to avoid inconsistencies between those data and the model physics. This study, being among the first to apply a data assimilation method in palaeoclimatology, provides a powerful tool for investigating past climate and some challenging perspectives.(SC - Sciences) -- UCL, 201

The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation

An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470-1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming

Constraining the evolution of the intensity of the meridional overturning circulation using a particle filter

Estimating the changes in the intensity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) over the last century is a challenge because of the lack of direct observations. As a consequence, the role played by variations in the MOC intensity in past climate changes is still unknown. Combining available data with model results using data assimila- tion is certainly a good approach to tackle this problem. In order to test this methodology, we have performed twin experiments with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM. In those experiments, instead of assimilating real observations, we use pseudo-observations created by the model itself. This allows us focusing on the method, as uncertainties in the forcing and model physics have no influence on the results. A simple particle filter method is applied over a relatively large ensemble of simulations: at each step, we resample the members of the ensemble according to their capacity to reproduce the pseudo-observations, computed through a likelihood function. In the present study, we focus on the choice of the variables that need to be assimilated in the model in order to reproduce adequately the evolution of the intensity of the MOC. Different experiments have thus been performed, in which we have assimilated different variables, such as the temperature and salinity (sea surface and in depth) and the geopotential height, i.e., variables that are thought to have a close relation with the MOC, and we identified which set of observations constraints the best the evolution of the MOC in the model simulation

Les conflits oubliés du Congo-Brazzaville

International audienc

Les conflits oubliés du Congo-Brazzaville

International audienc

Les conflits oubliés du Congo-Brazzaville

International audienc