Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios: from the modelling of the past to prediction

2008/2009È stato affrontato il problema della definizione della pericolosità sismica utilizzando il metodo neo-deterministico (NDSHA), che si basa sul calcolo di sismogrammi sintetici realistici. Considerando modelli strutturali medi e un set di sorgenti distribuite internamente alle zone sismogenetiche, possono essere definite delle mappe di scuotimento al bedrock complementari alla mappa di pericolosità di tipo probabilistico (PSHA) sulla quale è basata la normativa antisismica italiana. L’analisi di stabilità effettuata ha dimostrato che l’informazione disponibile sui terremoti del passato può non essere rappresentativa per i futuri terremoti, anche se si hanno a disposizione cataloghi estesi nel tempo (∼ 1000 anni). Ciò non è sorprendente se si tiene presente la scala dei tempi dei processi geologici, ma tale consapevolezza è spesso ignorata in PSHA. NDSHA permette di superare questo limite mediante l’uso di indicatori indipendenti sul potenziale sismico di un’area (e.g. nodi sismogenetici e faglie attive) che consentono di colmare le lacune nella sismicità osservata. Il confronto tra le mappe di pericolosità PSHA e NDSHA sul territorio italiano ha evidenziato che NDSHA fornisce valori maggiori di PSHA nelle aree caratterizzate da forti terremoti osservati e in corrispondenza dei nodi sismogenetici. I valori massimi di NDSHA sono confrontabili con quelli di PSHA per lunghi periodi di ritorno (T≥2475 anni). D’altro canto, PSHA tende a sovrastimare, rispetto a NDSHA, la pericolosità sismica in aree a bassa sismicità. È quindi auspicabile una revisione della normativa che tenga conto di questi fatti. Gli scenari di scuotimento sono utili sia per la ricostruzione delle caratteristiche di sorgente dei terremoti del passato (es. terremoto del 1117) che per la previsione degli effetti degli eventi futuri. Quest’ultimo aspetto, importante per le azioni di prevenzione della Protezione Civile, è stato sviluppato nell’ambito del progetto ASI-SISMA mediante la generazione di scenari dipendenti dal tempo a diversa scala di dettaglio. L’applicazione della tecnica analitica di calcolo dei sismogrammi sintetici in mezzi anelatici tridimensionali, per la cui è stata messa a punto una subroutine per la gestione automatica dell’input, è stata applicata allo studio di eventi di profondità intermedia, avvenuti in Vrancea (Romania), considerando sia serie temporali registrate (accelerogrammi) che intensità osservate.The problem of the definition of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), based on the computation of realistic synthetic seismograms, has been capably addressed. Considering average structural models and a set of sources distributed within the seismogenic zones, ground shaking maps at the bedrock, complementary to the probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) map on which the Italian seismic code is based, can be defined. The stability analysis performed showed that the available information from past events may not be well representative of future earthquakes, even if long earthquake catalogues (< 1000 years) are available. This is not surprising if we consider the geological times, but this awareness is often ignored in PSHA. NDSHA can easily overcome this limit since it allows to take into account, in a formally well defined way, not only the observed seismicity but also independent indicators of the seismogenic potential of a given area like the seismogenic nodes and active faulting data. The comparison between PSHA and NDSHA maps over the Italian territory evidenced that NDSHA provides values larger than those given by PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes (i.e. seismogenic nodes). The maximum values of NDSHA are consistent with those of PSHA for long return periods (T≥2475 years). Comparatively smaller values are obtained in low-seismicity areas. Therefore a revision of the code taking into account these facts is desirable. Ground shaking scenarios are useful in order to detect the main characteristics of the past earthquakes (e.g. the 1117 earthquake) and to predict the expected ground shaking associated with future earthquakes. The last aspect, which constitutes a useful tool for the rescue actions of the Civil Protection, has been developed in the framework of the ASI-SISMA Project by means of the generation of multi-scale time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios. The application of the analytical technique for the computation of synthetic seismograms in three-dimensional anelastic models, for which a subroutine for the automatic generation of the input has been developed, has been applied to the study of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes, considering both recorded time series (accelerograms) and observed macroseismic intensities.XXII Ciclo198

Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

Here we assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public) to an earthquake’s nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential usefulness of these times for EEW purposes by defining their spatial relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for measuring the impacts of earthquakes. Our mapped feasibility results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for some parts of Europe

A geospatial approach for mapping the earthquake-induced liquefaction risk at the european scale

none6noopenBozzoni Francesca, Roberta Bonì, Daniele Conca, Claudia Meisina, Carlo G. Lai, Elisa ZuccoloBozzoni, Francesca; Boni', Roberta; Daniele, Conca; Claudia, Meisina; Lai, Carlo G.; Elisa, Zuccol

CLIMATIC MODULATION OF SEISMICITY IN THE ALPINE-HIMALAYAN MOUNTAIN RANGE

Abstract The influence of strain field variations associated with seasonal and longer term climatic phenomena on earthquake occurrence is investigated. Two regions (Himalaya and Alps), characterized by present day mountain building and relevant glaciers retreat, as well as by sufficiently long earthquake catalogues, are suitable for the analysis. Secular variations of permanent glaciers dimensions, which are naturally grossly correlated with long-term average surface atmosphere temperature changes, as well as seasonal snow load, cause crustal deformations that modulate seismicity. MIRAMARE -TRIESTE April 2009 2 Introduction Tectonic forces responsible for mountain building must overcome, among others, gravity force

A Nup133-dependent NPC-anchored network tethers centrosomes to the nuclear envelope in prophase

Nup133 links CENP-F, NudE/EL, and the dynein/dynactin complex to anchor centrosomes to the nuclear membrane