Fire Risk Assessment and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Fire Protection Actions in a Combined-Cycle Power Plant

The increasing abundance of fires in industrial buildings has led to the growth of fire risk assessment and protection methods. However, few studies have been performed on the practical application of these risk assessment methods in industrial structures. This study aimed at assessing fire risk and determining the effectiveness of fire control measures to reduce fire-related injuries and fatalities to occupants at a combined-cycle power plant in the northeast of Iran. In the present study, firstly, the fire risk level of the real condition for the occupants, building and contents, and activities were measured using the Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering (FRAME). Then, taking into account the fire control measures, the fire risk was recalculated and compared with the acceptable risk level. The results indicated that the occupants’ fire risk level was 1.26 that was above the acceptable level. Furthermore, in the case of a fire, the expected destruction of the control room will be approximately 20%. Assuming a constant fire load modulation via building construction by non-burning materials or up to 10% burning materials, the occupants’ fire risk level will be decreased by 8% compared to the current situation. Also, in the state of designing standard emergency exit routes and using the fire alarm system, the fire risk level will be decreased by 50% and 52%, respectively, compared to the current condition. This study indicated that applying quantitative engineering methods for fire risk assessment can help to find practical solutions to minimize losses and fire-related injuries to industrial building occupants

Toward Diverse Polymer Property Prediction Using Transfer Learning

The prediction of mechanical and thermal properties of polymers is a critical aspect for polymer development. Herein, we discuss the use of transfer learning approach to predict multiple properties of linear polymers. The neural network model is initially trained to predict the heat capacity in constant pressure (Cp) of linear polymers. Once, the pre-trained model is transferred to predict four additional properties of polymers: specific heat capacity (Cv), shear modulus, flexural stress strength at yield, and tensile creep compliance. They represent a diverse set of mechanical, thermal, and rheological properties. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by achieving high accuracy in predicting the four additional properties using relatively small datasets of 13 to 18 samples. Also, the performance of the base model is examined using five different loss functions. Our results suggest that the combined loss function had better performance compared to the individual loss functions

Amidolytic Activity of Factor VII Expressed in Iranian Lizard Leishmania

Over many years, variable gene expression systems have been used obtaining of Factor VII protein, but each one has certain limitations. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to assess the biological activity of purified and recombinant factor VII expressed in Iranian lizard Leishmania. After transferring recombinant construct containing FVII gene to Leishmania, first, the expression of 55 kDa FVII protein in transfected cells was confirmed by analyzing cell lysate using SDS-PAGE and Western Blotting techniques. Then, FVII was purified by NI-NTA-His Tag- resin through an affinity chromatography. The chromogenic activity of human recombinant Factor VII (amidolytic activity) in supernatant and pellet fractions of Leishmania promastigotes was done using ELISA method. The amidolytic activity of rhFVII was about 0.0125 IU/ml in the concentrated cell sediment and 0 IU/ml in the supernatant in the first 60 minutes and after that time, none of the samples showed acceptable activity. HIGHLIGHTS• Factor VII has important role in the treatment of coagulation and hemophilic disease.• Recombinant FVII was expressed in Iranian Lizard Leishmania.• The amidolytic activity of rhFVII was about 0.0125 IU/ml in cell pellet.• No amildolytic activity was observed in the supernatant

Relation between third trimester urinary iodine concentrations and newborn thyrotrophic hormone

Background: The aim of the study was to evaluate the third trimester urinary iodine excretion and to assess its relation with newborns thyroid function. Materials and Methods: A total of 208 healthy third trimester pregnant women without previous history of thyroid disease were included in the study. Urinary iodine levels of mothers were measured and neonatal TSH levels were screened on the 3- 5th day following birth.Results: The median urinary iodine level in the mothers was 50μg/L. According to WHO criteria for iodine status:14.9%, 34.1% and 49.6% had severe, moderate and mild iodine deficiency, respectively, and only 1.4%, had the adequate iodine intake . In 6 neonate (2.8%) who their TSH level were between 5- 10 IU/ml, nobody had criteria for congenital hypothyroidism at recall visit (15th day). Our results showed the reverse relation between mean Neonatal TSH levels and mother’s third trimester iodine level (r= -0.19, p=0.006).Conclusion: Although all of mothers included in this study stated that they were using iodized salt, iodine deficiency was frequent . There was also a significant relation between mean neonatal TSH levels and mother’s third trimester iodine urinary level

Role of basal stress hormones and amygdala dimensions in stress coping strategies of male rhesus monkeys in response to a hazard-reward conflict

Objective(s): In the present study the effect of stress on monkeys that had learned to retrieve food from a five-chamber receptacle, as well as the relationship between their behavior and the serum cortisol and epinephrine levels and relative size of the amygdala was evaluated. Materials and Methods: Six male rhesus monkeys were individually given access to the food reward orderly. They could easily retrieve the rewards from all chambers except for the chamber 4, which a brief, mild electric shock (3 V) was delivered to them upon touching the chamber’s interior. The coping behaviors were video-recorded and analyzed offline. Baseline serum cortisol and epinephrine levels were measured before the experiments using monkey enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. One week after the behavioral experiment, the monkeys’ brains were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging under general anesthesia. The cross-sectional area of the left amygdala in sagittal plane relative to the area of the whole brain in the same slice was evaluated by the planimetric method using ImageJ software. Results: Exposure to the distressing condition caused different behavioral responses. Monkeys with higher baseline levels of serum cortisol and epinephrine and larger amygdala behaved more violently in the face of stress, indicating adopting emotion-focused stress-coping strategies. Conversely, those with low plasma epinephrine, moderate cortisol, and smaller amygdala showed perseverative behavior, indicating a problem-focused coping style. Conclusion: In dealing with the same stress, different responses might be observed from nonhuman primates according to their cortisol and epinephrine levels as well as their amygdala dimensions

Measuring Iran’s success in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4: a systematic analysis of under-5 mortality at national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2015

Background Child mortality as one of the key Millennium Development Goals (MDG 4—to reduce child mortality by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015), is included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, target 2—to reduce child mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths for all countries by 2030), and is a key indicator of the health system in every country. In this study, we aimed to estimate the level and trend of child mortality from 1990 to 2015 in Iran, to assess the progress of the country and its provinces toward these goals. Methods We used three different data sources: three censuses, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and 5-year data from the death registration system. We used the summary birth history data from four data sources (the three censuses and DHS) and used maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods to estimate the trends in child mortality rates, combining the estimates of these two indirect methods using Loess regression. We also used the complete birth history method to estimate child mortality rate directly from DHS data. Finally, to synthesise different trends into a single trend and calculate uncertainty intervals (UI), we used Gaussian process regression. Findings Under-5 mortality rates (deaths per 1000 livebirths) at the national level in Iran in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 were 63·6 (95% UI 63·1–64·0), 38·8 (38·5–39·2), 24·9 (24·3–25·4), and 19·4 (18·6–20·2), respectively. Between 1990 and 2015, the median annual reduction and total overall reduction in these rates were 4·9% and 70%, respectively. At the provincial level, the difference between the highest and lowest child mortality rates in 1990, 2000, and 2015 were 65·6, 40·4, and 38·1 per 1000 livebirths, respectively. Based on the MDG 4 goal, five provinces had not decreased child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Furthermore, six provinces had not reached SDG 3 (target 2). Interpretation Iran and most of its provinces achieved MDG 4 and SDG 3 (target 2) goals by 2015. However, at the subnational level in some provinces, there is substantial inequity. Local policy makers should use effective strategies to accelerate the reduction of child mortality for these provinces by 2030. Possible recommendations for such strategies include enhancing the level of education and health literacy among women, tackling sex discrimination, and improving incomes for families

Assessing sex differential in COVID-19 mortality rate by age and polymerase chain reaction test results: an Iranian multi-center study

Background The aim of this study is to evaluate the sex differential effect in the COVID-19 mortality by different age groups and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results. Research design In a multicenter cross-sectional study from 55 hospitals in Tehran, Iran, patients were categorized as positive, negative, and suspected cases. Results A total of 25,481 cases (14,791 males) were included in the study with a mortality rate of 12.0%. The mortality rates in positive, negative, and suspected cases were 20.55%, 9.97%, and 7.31%, respectively. Using a Cox regression model, sex had a significant effect on the hazard of death due to COVID-19 in adult and senior male patients having positive and suspected PCR test results. However, sex was not found as significant factor for mortality in patients with a negative PCR test in different age groups. Conclusions Regardless of other risk factors, we found that the effect of sex on COVID-19 mortality varied significantly in different age groups. Therefore, appropriate strategies should be designed to protect adult and senior males from this deadly infectious disease. Furthermore, owing to the considerable death rate of COVID-19 patients with negative test results, new policies should be launched to increase the accuracy of diagnosis tests

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic