Parties, Congress, and the Stock Market

Recent literature in both finance and political science has identified a series of systematic patterns in the way stock market responds to significant political events. The lack of a common theoretical core as well as the use of different empirical specifications in two literatures which hardly cross-reference each other has led to contradictory results. Several relevant questions arise: do stock markets really prefer Republicans or Democrats? Is divided government somehow better or worse for the stock market? We develop a theoretical framework to comprehend two under-theorized mechanisms through which political factors affect stock market performance: redistributive and regulatory policies. Two main predictions follow from the model: stock market performs better under Democratic Presidencies and under Divided Government. We then test them by looking at monthly changes in US stock market performance from the 1870s until today. We control for all relevant variables used in both previous literatures and subject the results to robustness checks. In addition, we complement our results with historical narratives of stock market regulation –from public policy scholars and economic historians-, which show the mechanisms of the theory in operation

Low intestinal IL22 associates with increased transplant-related mortality after allogeneic stem cell transplantation

The role of IL-22 in adult patients undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) is of major interest since animal studies showed a protective and regenerative effect of IL-22 in graft versus host disease (GvHD). However, no clinical data exist on the tissue expression. Here we demonstrate that patients not suffering from transplant-related mortality (TRM) show significantly upregulated IL22 expression during histological and clinical GI-GvHD (p = 0.048 and p = 0.022, respectively). In contrast, in GvHD patients suffering from TRM, IL22 was significantly lower (p = 0.007). Accordingly, lower IL22 was associated with a higher probability of TRM in survival analysis (p = 0.005). In a multivariable competing risk Cox regression analysis, low IL22 was identified as an independent risk factor for TRM (p = 0.007, hazard ratio 2.72, 95% CI 1.32 to 5.61). The expression of IL22 seemed to be microbiota dependent as broad-spectrum antibiotics significantly diminished IL22 expression (p = 0.019). Furthermore, IL22 expression significantly correlated with G-protein coupled receptor (GPR)43 (r = 0.263, p = 0.015) and GPR41 expression (r = 0.284, p = 0.009). In conclusion, our findings reveal an essential role of IL22 for the prognosis of patients undergoing allogeneic SCT