Regional performance variation in external validation of four prediction models for severity of COVID-19 at hospital admission: An observational multi-centre cohort study

Background Prediction models should be externally validated to assess their performance before implementation. Several prediction models for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) have been published. This observational cohort study aimed to validate published models of severity for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 using clinical and laboratory predictors. Methods Prediction models fitting relevant inclusion criteria were chosen for validation. The outcome was either mortality or a composite outcome of mortality and ICU admission (severe disease). 1295 patients admitted with symptoms of COVID-19 at Kings Cross Hospital (KCH) in London, United Kingdom, and 307 patients at Oslo University Hospital (OUH) in Oslo, Norway were included. The performance of the models was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results We identified two models for prediction of mortality (referred to as Xie and Zhang1) and two models for prediction of severe disease (Allenbach and Zhang2). The performance of the models was variable. For prediction of mortality Xie had good discrimination at OUH with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79–0.95] and acceptable discrimination at KCH, AUROC 0.79 [0.76–0.82]. In prediction of severe disease, Allenbach had acceptable discrimination (OUH AUROC 0.81 [0.74–0.88] and KCH AUROC 0.72 [0.68–0.75]). The Zhang models had moderate to poor discrimination. Initial calibration was poor for all models but improved with recalibration. Conclusions The performance of the four prediction models was variable. The Xie model had the best discrimination for mortality, while the Allenbach model had acceptable results for prediction of severe disease

Monitoring and data quality assessment of the ATLAS liquid argon calorimeter

The liquid argon calorimeter is a key component of the ATLAS detector installed at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The primary purpose of this calorimeter is the measurement of electron and photon kinematic properties. It also provides a crucial input for measuring jets and missing transverse momentum. An advanced data monitoring procedure was designed to quickly identify issues that would affect detector performance and ensure that only the best quality data are used for physics analysis. This article presents the validation procedure developed during the 2011 and 2012 LHC data-taking periods, in which more than 98% of the proton-proton luminosity recorded by ATLAS at a centre-of-mass energy of 7-8 TeV had calorimeter data quality suitable for physics analysis

Långsiktiga konsekvenser av en utvidgad norsk-svensk elcertifikatmarknad

Godkänd; 2004; 20120824 (patriks

Association Between Genotypes and Phenotypes in Coeliac Disease.

BACKGROUND:: Coeliac disease (CD) is a genetically driven immunological intolerance to dietary gluten with a wide range of clinical presentations. The aim of this study was to investigate the heritability of the phenotype in CD and the influence on the phenotype of different genes associated with the disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS:: One hundred and seven families with at least 2 siblings with CD were collected. The patients were grouped in symptom grades on the basis of the clinical presentation, the age at diagnosis, and sex. Stratification analyses of the human leucocyte antigen-DQA1 and human leucocyte antigen-DQB1 genotypes, the CTLA4 +49A/G polymorphism, the CTLA4 haplotype MH30*G:-1147*T:+49*A:CT60*G:CT61*A and the 5q31-33 loci were done. RESULTS:: The heritability of the phenotype was estimated to be 0.45. Significant association and linkage was found between the clinical presentation and the CTLA4 +49A/G polymorphism but not for the other genotypes. No correlation was found between genotypes and age at diagnosis or sex. CONCLUSIONS:: Our results indicate that the heritability is determiner of the phenotype in CD. The CTLA4 +49A/G polymorphism is correlated to the clinical presentation: the AA genotype is associated with clinically silent disease

Association study of IL2/IL21 and FcgRIIa: significant association with the IL2/IL21 region in Scandinavian coeliac disease families

The first genome-wide association study performed in a UK coeliac disease (CD) case-control cohort revealed association with a linkage disequilibrium block containing the KIAA1109/Tenr/IL2/IL21 genes. Also recently, an association with a non-synonymous polymorphism in Fcitalic gammaRIIa (CD32a) was reported in CD with an unusually strong P-value. We aimed to replicate the reported associations with the single nucleotide polymorphisms rs13119723 A>G and rs6822844 G>T in the KIAA1109/Tenr/IL2/IL21 region and rs1801274 G>A in the Fcitalic gammaRIIa gene in a family sample consisting of 325 Swedish/Norwegian families using the robust transmission disequilibrium test. The family sample used in this study included 100 families with two or more children affected by CD and 225 families with one affected child. We could confirm significant association between the polymorphisms rs13119723 A>G and rs6822844 G>T located in the KIAA1109/Tenr/IL2/IL21 region and CD (P-value 0.001 and 0.002, respectively). However, we found no association with the Fcitalic gammaRIIa rs1801274 G>A polymorphism (P-value=0.3). In conclusion, our results support the KIAA1109/Tenr/IL2/IL21 region as a true CD susceptibility region

Four novel coeliac disease regions replicated in an association study of a Swedish-Norwegian family cohort.

Recent genome-wide association studies have identified 1q31 (RGS1), 2q11-12 (IL18RAP), 3p21 (CCR1/CCR3/CCR2), 3q25-26 (IL12A/SCHIP1), 3q28 (LPP), 4q27 (IL2/IL21), 6q25 (TAGAP) and 12q24 (SH2B3) as susceptibility regions for coeliac disease (CD). We have earlier replicated association with the IL2/IL21 region. This study aimed at replicating the remaining regions in a family cohort using the transmission disequilibrium test, which is not prone to population stratification as a source of false-positive results. Nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within these regions were genotyped in 325 Swedish-Norwegian CD families. We found significant associations with the same alleles in the regions 1q31 (rs2816316; P(nc)=0.0060), 3p21 (rs6441961; P(nc)=0.0006), 3q25-26 (rs17810564; P(nc)=0.0316 and rs9811792; P(nc)=0.0434) and 3q28 (rs1464510; P(nc)=0.0037). Borderline, but non-significant, associations were found for rs917997 (IL18RAP), whereas no evidence for association could be obtained for rs13015714 (IL18RAP) or rs1738074 (TAGAP). The lack of replication of the latter SNPs could be because of limited power. rs3184504 (SH2B3) was not analysed because of assay failure. The most significantly associated region, 3p21 (CCR1/CCR3/CCR2), was further analysed by typing of 30 SNPs, with the aim of identifying the causal variant responsible for the initial association. Several SNPs showed association with CD, but none displayed associations stronger than rs6441961, nor did any of them add to the effect initially marked by rs6441961 in a conditional analysis. However, differential effects of rs6441961(*)C carrying haplotypes were indicated, and we thus cannot exclude the possibility that our inability to obtain evidence for multiple independent effects in the CCR1/CCR3/CCR2 gene region was related to a power issue

A comprehensive screen for SNP associations on chromosome region 5q31-33 in Swedish/Norwegian celiac disease families.

Celiac disease (CD) is a gluten-induced enteropathy, which results from the interplay between environmental and genetic factors. There is a strong human leukocyte antigen (HLA) association with the disease, and HLA-DQ alleles represent a major genetic risk factor. In addition to HLA-DQ, non-HLA genes appear to be crucial for CD development. Chromosomal region 5q31–33 has demonstrated linkage with CD in several genome-wide studies, including in our Swedish/Norwegian cohort. In a European meta-analysis 5q31–33 was the only region that reached a genome-wide level of significance except for the HLA region. To identify the genetic variant(s) responsible for this linkage signal, we performed a comprehensive single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) association screen in 97 Swedish/Norwegian multiplex families who demonstrate linkage to the region. We selected tag SNPs from a 16 Mb region representing the 95% confidence interval of the linkage peak. A total of 1404 SNPs were used for the association analysis. We identified several regions with SNPs demonstrating moderate single- or multipoint associations. However, the isolated association signals appeared insufficient to account for the linkage signal seen in our cohort. Collective effects of multiple risk genes within the region, incomplete genetic coverage or effects related to copy number variation are possible explanations for our findings