Does publication bias inflate the apparent efficacy of psychological treatment for major depressive disorder? A systematic review and meta-analysis of US national institutes of health-funded trials

Background The efficacy of antidepressant medication has been shown empirically to be overestimated due to publication bias, but this has only been inferred statistically with regard to psychological treatment for depression. We assessed directly the extent of study publication bias in trials examining the efficacy of psychological treatment for depression. Methods and Findings We identified US National Institutes of Health grants awarded to fund randomized clinical trials comparing psychological treatment to control conditions or other treatments in patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder for the period 1972–2008, and we determined whether those grants led to publications. For studies that were not published, data were requested from investigators and included in the meta-analyses. Thirteen (23.6%) of the 55 funded grants that began trials did not result in publications, and two others never started. Among comparisons to control conditions, adding unpublished studies (Hedges’ g = 0.20; CI95% -0.11~0.51; k = 6) to published studies (g = 0.52; 0.37~0.68; k = 20) reduced the psychotherapy effect size point estimate (g = 0.39; 0.08~0.70) by 25%. Moreover, these findings may overestimate the "true" effect of psychological treatment for depression as outcome reporting bias could not be examined quantitatively. Conclusion The efficacy of psychological interventions for depression has been overestimated in the published literature, just as it has been for pharmacotherapy. Both are efficacious but not to the extent that the published literature would suggest. Funding agencies and journals should archive both original protocols and raw data from treatment trials to allow the detection and correction of outcome reporting bias. Clinicians, guidelines developers, and decision makers should be aware that the published literature overestimates the effects of the predominant treatments for depression

Assessment of regression-based methods to adjust for publication bias through a comprehensive simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In meta-analysis, the presence of funnel plot asymmetry is attributed to publication or other small-study effects, which causes larger effects to be observed in the smaller studies. This issue potentially mean inappropriate conclusions are drawn from a meta-analysis. If meta-analysis is to be used to inform decision-making, a reliable way to adjust pooled estimates for potential funnel plot asymmetry is required.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A comprehensive simulation study is presented to assess the performance of different adjustment methods including the novel application of several regression-based methods (which are commonly applied to detect publication bias rather than adjust for it) and the popular Trim & Fill algorithm. Meta-analyses with binary outcomes, analysed on the log odds ratio scale, were simulated by considering scenarios with and without i) publication bias and; ii) heterogeneity. Publication bias was induced through two underlying mechanisms assuming the probability of publication depends on i) the study effect size; or ii) the p-value.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The performance of all methods tended to worsen as unexplained heterogeneity increased and the number of studies in the meta-analysis decreased. Applying the methods conditional on an initial test for the presence of funnel plot asymmetry generally provided poorer performance than the unconditional use of the adjustment method. Several of the regression based methods consistently outperformed the Trim & Fill estimators.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Regression-based adjustments for publication bias and other small study effects are easy to conduct and outperformed more established methods over a wide range of simulation scenarios.</p

False positive circumsporozoite protein ELISA: a challenge for the estimation of the entomological inoculation rate of malaria and for vector incrimination

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) is an important indicator in estimating malaria transmission and the impact of vector control. To assess the EIR, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) is increasingly used. However, several studies have reported false positive results in this ELISA. The false positive results could lead to an overestimation of the EIR. The aim of present study was to estimate the level of false positivity among different anopheline species in Cambodia and Vietnam and to check for the presence of other parasites that might interact with the anti-CSP monoclonal antibodies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mosquitoes collected in Cambodia and Vietnam were identified and tested for the presence of sporozoites in head and thorax by using CSP-ELISA. ELISA positive samples were confirmed by a <it>Plasmodium </it>specific PCR. False positive mosquitoes were checked by PCR for the presence of parasites belonging to the Haemosporidia, Trypanosomatidae, Piroplasmida, and Haemogregarines. The heat-stability and the presence of the cross-reacting antigen in the abdomen of the mosquitoes were also checked.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Specimens (N = 16,160) of seven anopheline species were tested by CSP-ELISA for <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>and <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>(Pv210 and Pv247). Two new vector species were identified for the region: <it>Anopheles pampanai </it>(<it>P. vivax</it>) and <it>Anopheles barbirostris </it>(<it>Plasmodium malariae</it>). In 88% (155/176) of the mosquitoes found positive with the <it>P. falciparum </it>CSP-ELISA, the presence of <it>Plasmodium </it>sporozoites could not be confirmed by PCR. This percentage was much lower (28% or 5/18) for <it>P. vivax </it>CSP-ELISAs. False positive CSP-ELISA results were associated with zoophilic mosquito species. None of the targeted parasites could be detected in these CSP-ELISA false positive mosquitoes. The ELISA reacting antigen of <it>P. falciparum </it>was heat-stable in CSP-ELISA true positive specimens, but not in the false positives. The heat-unstable cross-reacting antigen is mainly present in head and thorax and almost absent in the abdomens (4 out of 147) of the false positive specimens.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CSP-ELISA can considerably overestimate the EIR, particularly for <it>P. falciparum </it>and for zoophilic species. The heat-unstable cross-reacting antigen in false positives remains unknown. Therefore it is highly recommended to confirm all positive CSP-ELISA results, either by re-analysing the heated ELISA lysate (100°C, 10 min), or by performing <it>Plasmodium </it>specific PCR followed if possible by sequencing of the amplicons for <it>Plasmodium </it>species determination.</p

Effect of Restricted Preen-Gland Access on Maternal Self Maintenance and Reproductive Investment in Mallards

As egg production and offspring care are costly, females should invest resources adaptively into their eggs to optimize current offspring quality and their own lifetime reproductive success. Parasite infections can influence maternal investment decisions due to their multiple negative physiological effects. The act of preening--applying oils with anti-microbial properties to feathers--is thought to be a means by which birds combat pathogens and parasites, but little is known of how preening during the reproductive period (and its expected disease-protecting effects) influences maternal investment decisions at the level of the egg.Here, we experimentally prevented female mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from accessing their preen gland during breeding and monitored female immunoresponsiveness (e.g., plasma lysozyme concentration) as well as some egg traits linked to offspring quality (e.g., egg mass, yolk carotenoid content, and albumen lysozyme levels). Females with no access to their preen gland showed an increase in plasma lysozyme level compared to control, normally preening females. In addition, preen-gland-restricted females laid significantly lighter eggs and deposited higher carotenoid concentrations in the yolk compared to control females. Albumen lysozyme activity did not differ significantly between eggs laid by females with or without preen gland access.Our results establish a new link between an important avian self-maintenance behaviour and aspects of maternal health and reproduction. We suggest that higher yolk carotenoid levels in eggs laid by preen-gland-restricted females may serve to boost health of offspring that would hatch in a comparatively microbe-rich environment

Three-Armed Trials Including Placebo and No-Treatment Groups May Be Subject to Publication Bias: Systematic Review

Background: It has been argued that placebos may not have important clinical impacts in general. However, there is increasing evidence of a publication bias among trials published in journals. Therefore, we explored the potential for publication bias in randomized trials with active treatment, placebo, and no-treatment groups. Methods: Three-armed randomized trials of acupuncture, acupoint stimulation, and transcutaneous electrical stimulation were obtained from electronic databases. Effect sizes between treatment and placebo groups were calculated for treatment effect, and effect sizes between placebo and no-treatment groups were calculated for placebo effect. All data were then analyzed for publication bias. Results: For the treatment effect, small trials with fewer than 100 patients per arm showed more benefits than large trials with at least 100 patients per arm in acupuncture and acupoint stimulation. For the placebo effect, no differences were found between large and small trials. Further analyses showed that the treatment effect in acupuncture and acupoint stimulation may be subject to publication bias because study design and any known factors of heterogeneity were not associated with the small study effects. In the simulation, the magnitude of the placebo effect was smaller than that calculated after considering publication bias. Conclusions: Randomized three-armed trials, which are necessary for estimating the placebo effect, may be subject t

The genetic mating system of a sea spider with male-biased sexual size dimorphism: evidence for paternity skew despite random mating success

Male-biased size dimorphism is usually expected to evolve in taxa with intense male–male competition for mates, and it is hence associated with high variances in male mating success. Most species of pycnogonid sea spiders exhibit female-biased size dimorphism, and are notable among arthropods for having exclusive male parental care of embryos. Relatively little, however, is known about their natural history, breeding ecology, and mating systems. Here we first show that Ammothella biunguiculata, a small intertidal sea spider, exhibits male-biased size dimorphism. Moreover, we combine genetic parentage analysis with quantitative measures of sexual selection to show that male body size does not appear to be under directional selection. Simulations of random mating revealed that mate acquisition in this species is largely driven by chance factors, although actual paternity success is likely non-randomly distributed. Finally, the opportunity for sexual selection (Is), an indirect metric for the potential strength of sexual selection, in A. biunguiculata males was less than half of that estimated in a sea spider with female-biased size dimorphism, suggesting the direction of size dimorphism may not be a reliable predictor of the intensity of sexual selection in this group. We highlight the suitability of pycnogonids as model systems for addressing questions relating parental investment and sexual selection, as well as the current lack of basic information on their natural history and breeding ecology

Systematic review of methods used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event

addresses: Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, St Luke's Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. [email protected]: PMCID: PMC3528446types: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't© 2012 Warren et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Adverse consequences of medical interventions are a source of concern, but clinical trials may lack power to detect elevated rates of such events, while observational studies have inherent limitations. Meta-analysis allows the combination of individual studies, which can increase power and provide stronger evidence relating to adverse events. However, meta-analysis of adverse events has associated methodological challenges. The aim of this study was to systematically identify and review the methodology used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event, following a therapeutic intervention

The association of telomere length with substance use disorders: systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

BACKGROUND: The present protocol was designed for a systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at determining the association of telomere length with substance use disorders with the exclusion of nicotine addiction, and to identify potential moderators of the effect of telomere length. Such methodological information may provide guidance to improve the quality of future research on this important topic. METHODS: Potential studies will be identified through electronic databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science) up from inception onwards. The inclusion criteria will include published or unpublished observational studies (cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies) reporting telomere length in adult patients with substance use disorder compared with a control group. Non-human studies or other study designs such as reviews, case-only, family-based, and/or population studies with only healthy participants will be excluded, as well as those focused solely on nicotine addiction. The main outcome will be telomere length in adults with substance use disorder (primary) and, specifically, in those with alcohol use disorder (secondary). Two investigators will independently evaluate the preselected studies for possible inclusion and will extract data following a standardized protocol. Disagreements will be resolved by consensus. The risk of bias of all included studies will be assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale for non-randomized studies. Data will be converted into standardized mean differences as effect size index, and random-effects models will be used for the meta-analysis. Cochran's Q statistic, I(2) index, and visual inspection of the forest plot will be used to verify study heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses and meta-regressions will be conducted to ascertain heterogeneity. Several sensitivity analyses will be conducted to address the influence of potential confounding factors. Publication bias will be examined using the "funnel plot" method with Duval and Tweedie's trim-and-fill method and Egger test. DISCUSSION: This systematic review will assess the association of telomere length with substance use disorders aside from nicotine addiction. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number CRD42019119785