Population dynamics in Kampong chicken and consequences for HPAI vaccination: results of a field trial in Java

Until today HPAI in poultry is considered to be endemic in most of the Indonesian provinces since it was officially declared in 2004. Vaccination is used as one of the control strategies targeting layer and breeder farms but also Kampong (village) chicken. Limited information is available on the scope of off-take and replacement occurring in Kampong chicken populations under field condition and their effects on HPAI vaccination. To collate information on population dynamics in Kampong chicken, twelve communities with 300-500 chickens each have been enrolled in this trial. Chicken exit/entries as well as disease/mortality events were intensively monitored in weekly intervals. The trial was carried out between July 2008 and August 2009 in two Districts of Yogyakarta, Java. Results indicate that 39-44% of chickens were younger than two months of age over time and more than two-thirds of chickens were younger than four months, respectively. Adult chickens represented only 10% (male) and 20% (female) of the total population. Though overall population size within the selected communities was relatively stable, the number of chickens changed widely within age classes. In each observed quarter, there was a 43% or higher turnover of the population (43-72%). Observed changes were related to socio-cultural events such as holidays or begin of school. From our results we can conclude that approximately 40% of a natural backyard population will be un-vaccinated by 60 days after the onset of a vaccination campaign. Considering this high population turnover rate, even a quarterly vaccination regime including a booster round is required will have difficulty achieving effective flock immunity levels. This results in high costs, poses a significant logistical challenge and suggests mass vaccination is not a practical approach to sustained control of HPAI

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The effectiveness of preventative mass vaccination regimes against the incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza on Java Island, Indonesia

We conducted an operational research study involving backyard and semicommercial farms on Java Island, Indonesia, between April 2008 and September 2009 to evaluate the effectiveness of two preventive mass vaccination strategies against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). One regimen used Legok 2003 H5N1 vaccine, while the other used both Legok 2003 H5N1 and HB1 Newcastle disease (ND) vaccine. A total of 16 districts were involved in the study. The sample size was estimated using a formal power calculation technique that assumed a detectable effect of treatment as a 50% reduction in the baseline number of HPAI-compatible outbreaks. Within each district, candidate treatment blocks with village poultry populations ranging from 80 000 to 120 000 were created along subdistrict boundary lines. Subsequently, four of these blocks were randomly selected and assigned one treatment from a list that comprised control, vaccination against HPAI, vaccination against HPAI + ND. Four rounds of vaccination were administered at quarterly intervals beginning in July 2008. A vaccination campaign involved vaccinating 100 000 birds in a treatment block, followed by another 100 000 vaccinations 3 weeks later as a booster dose. Data on disease incidence and vaccination coverage were also collected at quarterly intervals using participatory epidemiological techniques. Compared with the unvaccinated (control) group, the incidence of HPAI-compatible events declined by 32% (P = 0.24) in the HPAI-vaccinated group and by 73% (P = 0.00) in the HPAI- and ND-vaccinated group. The effect of treatment did not vary with time or district. Similarly, an analysis of secondary data from the participatory disease and response (PDSR) database revealed that the incidence of HPAI declined by 12% in the HPAI-vaccinated group and by 24% in the HPAI + ND-vaccinated group. The results suggest that the HPAI + ND vaccination significantly reduced the incidence of HPAI-compatible events in mixed populations of semicommercial and backyard poultry

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7–8·8) or $1132 (1119–1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5–0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0–25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and$1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4$2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7$1519 (1448–1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all

Safety and efficacy of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to reduce ileus after colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after elective colorectal surgery, and is associated with increased adverse events and prolonged hospital stay. The aim was to assess the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for reducing ileus after surgery. Methods: A prospective multicentre cohort study was delivered by an international, student- and trainee-led collaborative group. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The primary outcome was time to gastrointestinal recovery, measured using a composite measure of bowel function and tolerance to oral intake. The impact of NSAIDs was explored using Cox regression analyses, including the results of a centre-specific survey of compliance to enhanced recovery principles. Secondary safety outcomes included anastomotic leak rate and acute kidney injury. Results: A total of 4164 patients were included, with a median age of 68 (i.q.r. 57\u201375) years (54\ub79 per cent men). Some 1153 (27\ub77 per cent) received NSAIDs on postoperative days 1\u20133, of whom 1061 (92\ub70 per cent) received non-selective cyclo-oxygenase inhibitors. After adjustment for baseline differences, the mean time to gastrointestinal recovery did not differ significantly between patients who received NSAIDs and those who did not (4\ub76 versus 4\ub78 days; hazard ratio 1\ub704, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub796 to 1\ub712; P = 0\ub7360). There were no significant differences in anastomotic leak rate (5\ub74 versus 4\ub76 per cent; P = 0\ub7349) or acute kidney injury (14\ub73 versus 13\ub78 per cent; P = 0\ub7666) between the groups. Significantly fewer patients receiving NSAIDs required strong opioid analgesia (35\ub73 versus 56\ub77 per cent; P < 0\ub7001). Conclusion: NSAIDs did not reduce the time for gastrointestinal recovery after colorectal surgery, but they were safe and associated with reduced postoperative opioid requirement