The fractional integrated bi- parameter smooth transition autoregressive model

This paper introduces the fractionally integrated Bi-parameter smooth transition autoregressive model (FI-BSTAR model) as an extension of BSTAR model proposed by Siliverstovs (2005) and the fractionally integrated STAR model (FI-STAR model) proposed by van Dijk et al. (2002). Our FI-BSTAR model is able to simultaneously describe persistence and asymmetric smooth structural change in time series. An empirical application using monthly growth rates of the American producer price index is provided.Long Memory, Nonlinearity, Asymmetry, STAR models.

Cancer survival for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: a national study of survival rates and excess mortality

BackgroundNational cancer survival statistics are available for the total Australian population but not Indigenous Australians, although their cancer mortality rates are known to be higher than those of other Australians. We aimed to validate analysis methods and report cancer survival rates for Indigenous Australians as the basis for regular national reporting.MethodsWe used national cancer registrations data to calculate all-cancer and site-specific relative survival for Indigenous Australians (compared with non-Indigenous Australians) diagnosed in 2001-2005. Because of limited availability of Indigenous life tables, we validated and used cause-specific survival (rather than relative survival) for proportional hazards regression to analyze time trends and regional variation in all-cancer survival between 1991 and 2005.ResultsSurvival was lower for Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians for all cancers combined and for many cancer sites. The excess mortality of Indigenous people with cancer was restricted to the first three years after diagnosis, and greatest in the first year. Survival was lower for rural and remote than urban residents; this disparity was much greater for Indigenous people. Survival improved between 1991 and 2005 for non-Indigenous people (mortality decreased by 28%), but to a much lesser extent for Indigenous people (11%) and only for those in remote areas; cancer survival did not improve for urban Indigenous residents.ConclusionsCancer survival is lower for Indigenous than other Australians, for all cancers combined and many individual cancer sites, although more accurate recording of Indigenous status by cancer registers is required before the extent of this disadvantage can be known with certainty. Cancer care for Indigenous Australians needs to be considerably improved; cancer diagnosis, treatment, and support services need to be redesigned specifically to be accessible and acceptable to Indigenous people

Microevolution during the emergence of a monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium epidemic in the United Kingdom

Microevolutionary events associated with the emergence and clonal expansion of new 27 epidemic clones of bacterial pathogens hold the key to understanding the drivers of 28 epidemiological success. We describe a comparative whole genome sequence and 29 phylogenomic analysis of monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium isolates from the UK 30 and Italy from 2005-2012. Monophasic isolates from this time formed a single clade 31 distinct from recent monophasic epidemic clones described previously from North 32 America and Spain. The current UK monophasic epidemic clones encode a novel 33 genomic island encoding resistance to heavy metals (SGI-3), and composite transposon 34 encoding antibiotic resistance genes not present in other Typhimurium isolates, that 35 may have contributed to the epidemiological success. We also report a remarkable 36 degree of genotypic variation that accumulated during clonal expansion of a UK 37 epidemic including multiple independent acquisitions of a novel prophage carrying the 38 sopE gene and multiple deletion events affecting the phase II flagellin locus

A multinuclear solid state NMR, density functional theory and X-Ray diffraction study of hydrogen bonding in Group I hydrogen dibenzoates

An NMR crystallographic approach incorporating multinuclear solid state NMR (SSNMR), X-ray structure determinations and density functional theory (DFT) are used to characterise the H bonding arrangements in benzoic acid (BZA) and the corresponding Group I alkali metal hydrogen dibenzoates (HD) systems. Since the XRD data often cannot precisely confirm the proton position within the hydrogen bond, the relationship between the experimental SSNMR parameters and the ability of gauge included plane augmented wave (GIPAW) DFT to predict them becomes a powerful constraint that can assist with further structure refinement. Both the 1H and 13C MAS NMR methods provide primary descriptions of the H bonding via accurate measurements of the 1H and 13C isotropic chemical shifts, and the individual 13C chemical shift tensor elements; these are unequivocally corroborated by DFT calculations, which together accurately describe the trend of the H bonding strength as the size of the monovalent cation changes. In addition, 17O MAS and DOR NMR form a powerful combination to characterise the O environments, with the DOR technique providing highly resolved 17O NMR data which helps verify unequivocally the number of inequivalent O positions for the conventional 17O MAS NMR to process. Further multinuclear MAS and static NMR studies involving the quadrupolar 7Li, 39K, 87Rb and 133Cs nuclei, and the associated DFT calculations, provide trends and a corroboration of the H bond geometry which assist in the understanding of these arrangements. Even though the crystallographic H positions in each H bonding arrangement reported from the single crystal X-ray studies are prone to uncertainty, the good corroboration between the measured and DFT calculated chemical shift and quadrupole tensor parameters for the Group I alkali species suggest that these reported H positions are reliable

Macrolides and lincosamides in cattle and pigs : Use and development of antimicrobial resistance

Peer reviewe

Role of Electronic Data Exchange in an International Outbreak Caused by Salmonella enterica Serotype Typhimurium DT204b

From July through September 2000, patients in five European countries were infected with a multidrug-resistant strain of Salmonella Typhimurium DT204b. Epidemiologic investigations were facilitated by the transmission of electronic images (Tagged Image Files) of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profiles. This investigation highlights the importance of standardized protocols for molecular typing in international outbreaks of foodborne disease

Real-world evidence from the first online healthcare analytics platform—Livingstone. Validation of its descriptive epidemiology module

Incidence and prevalence are key epidemiological determinants characterizing the quantum of a disease. We compared incidence and prevalence estimates derived automatically from the first ever online, essentially real-time, healthcare analytics platform—Livingstone—against findings from comparable peer-reviewed studies in order to validate the descriptive epidemiology module. The source of routine NHS data for Livingstone was the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). After applying a general search strategy looking for any disease or condition, 76 relevant studies were first retrieved, of which 10 met pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings reported in these studies were compared with estimates produced automatically by Livingstone. The published reports described elements of the epidemiology of 14 diseases or conditions. Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to evaluate the concordance between findings from Livingstone and those detailed in the published studies. The concordance of incidence values in the final year reported by each study versus Livingstone was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89–0.98), whilst for all annual incidence values the concordance was 0.93 (0.91–0.94). For prevalence, concordance for the final annual prevalence reported in each study versus Livingstone was 1.00 (0.99–1.00) and for all reported annual prevalence values, the concordance was 0.93 (0.90–0.95). The concordance between Livingstone and the latest published findings was near perfect for prevalence and substantial for incidence. For the first time, it is now possible to automatically generate reliable descriptive epidemiology from routine health records, and in near-real time. Livingstone provides the first mechanism to rapidly generate standardised, descriptive epidemiology for all clinical events from real world data

Christianity as Public Religion::A Justification for using a Christian Sociological Approach for Studying the Social Scientific Aspects of Sport

The vast majority of social scientific studies of sport have been secular in nature and/or have tended to ignore the importance of studying the religious aspects of sport. In light of this, Shilling and Mellor (2014) have sought to encourage sociologists of sport not to divorce the ‘religious’ and the ‘sacred’ from their studies. In response to this call, the goal of the current essay is to explore how the conception of Christianity as ‘public religion’ can be utilised to help justify the use of a Christian sociological approach for studying the social scientific aspects of sport. After making a case for Christianity as public religion, we conclude that many of the sociological issues inherent in modern sport are an indirect result of its increasing secularisation and argue that this justifies the need for a Christian sociological approach. We encourage researchers to use the Bible, the tools of Christian theology and sociological concepts together, so to inform analyses of modern sport from a Christian perspective